Schectman Offseason: Should Green Bay Have Overpaid Aaron Rodgers?

Schectman Offseason: Should Green Bay Have Overpaid Aaron Rodgers?


Things were getting a little slow in the NFL for a minute. We were down to headlines about where Troy Aikman and Joe Buck will be calling games next season. And if you care about that, there are people in your life who are deeply concerned about you.

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Even more newsworthy was the article about how the Bengals were sore at their kicker for watching the halftime show during the Super Bowl. If you read that one too then, yes, you know how it feels to be a crack whore.

This isn’t a loop, Kermit once did this for 46 minutes. Then he ran around trying to convince everyone that Sweetums was actually just some guy in a costume.

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But then Russell Wilson got traded to the Broncos (zoinks!), and the Packers gave Aaron Rodgers $200 million to stay in Green Bay. It actually helps their cap situation this year, but by year 4 of the deal it’ll be Rodgers and a team of muppet wide receivers led by “Stone Hands” Sweetums.

There’s a bigger question here in overpaying any player when there’s a salary cap. It’s almost always a bad idea. Did you know Kirk Cousins’ deal pays him in the same ballpark as Patrick Mahomes? How can anyone root for the Vikings when management does that? You’re gonna cripple your cap for a guy who never wins enough games? Any Executive Of The Year trophies lately in the twin cities?

Here’s a general rule for GM’s: never overpay for anything less than a big-time difference-maker. And there are only a handful of those players in any given professional sports league. Except curling. Curling is always loaded.

So what about Aaron Rodgers? No question, he’s one of the handful. But the answer, at least for Green Bay, is he is absolutely NOT worth overpaying at this point. Why not? I’m glad I made it seem like you asked!


How many seasons has he been a Packer? 17. How many rings? 1. Sure, he gives you a chance every year. About a 6 percent chance from the looks of it. And how do these odds improve if you can only afford to surround him with even less talent? Do the math. I’ll wait.

Unless they are going all-in like the Rams, which means mortgaging their future, this approach make no sense. Like State Farm thinking this makes anyone want their insurance:

The only “Rodgers Rate” I want is the one Green Bay is offering. And I’m only 6 percent less likely to win the chip (for all you Good Will Huntings). I’m a steal! Can I use a Nerf football though? Asking for a friend.


You drafted his replacement way too early and he’s still pissed about it. He tried to break up with you, he started sleeping with Denver, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh, and here you are all desperate and pathetic yelling, “Wait, I can change!”

Oh, Aaron Bigalow: Male Gigolo will take your money and shack up with you again, but it’s not real love. It’s Jordan Love.

And not the good kind.


In basketball, overpaying the 10-15 real difference-makers makes more sense. You get two or three on a team and you’re usually a legit contender. Football is different. For starters, the ball isn’t even shaped the same.

There are just too many other positions to account for in football. How many truly great quarterbacks walked away with only one ring? Or none? A lot. Ask Dan Marino. When he’s done eating.

Too many other factors. Penalties, injuries, felonies… You know, Raiders football.


I don’t care that Rodgers is 38, because he’s still playing like an MVP. But how long does the window stay open in Green Bay if all the money goes to Aaron?

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Take your time, this one’s tough.

And didn’t the Packers go through all this with Brett Favre? Isn’t Rodgers having an identical journey in Green Bay? Aren’t they basically twinsies?

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Right down to the number of rings they each won during long careers in that uniform.

$50 million a year for Aaron Rodgers is a mistake for the Packers. Should have let one of his other girlfriends pay the price. Like it or not, Green Bay now has a rapidly shrinking window. Sure, they just franchise tagged Davante Adams, but what else? How do they add more impact players? If you’re gonna go for it, go for it!

Or, just keep losing to the 49ers in the playoffs because you can’t afford special teams.

The Packers chose to re-marry Rodgers. I give it a 6% chance.

As always, thanks for playing!

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