Setting The Scene
Over the Fourth of July weekend, the PGA TOUR will visit Detroit for the third edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Low scores have ruled this event at Detroit Golf Club, so expect more pyrotechnics. In two events, the cut line was four and five-under-par, and last year’s firm favorite Bryson DeChambeau won by three shots at 23-under-par.
The field includes seven players ranked in the top 30 globally, including No. 9 Patrick Reed. Webb Simpson and Hideki Matsuyama, the 2021 Masters Champion, are also in the top 20 and among the favorites.
At the Rocket Mortgage Classic, its rains birdies. The Donald Ross-designed course, which was refurbished before the 2019 event and ranks as the flattest golf course on the PGA TOUR, according to ShotLink statistics, has three reachable Par-5s to add to the birdie feast.
The smaller, undulating greens will be softer due to wet weather leading up to the event and sporadic rains expected on Thursday. On the first nine, tree-lined fairways with more bunkers extending from the greens have provided little protection against the pro golfers.
Last Year’s Betting Review
Bryson, a hot +600 pre-event favorite, was matched for plenty at -5000 as victory appeared a foregone conclusion.
However, the birdies dried up on the back nine, and when he bogeyed the par-five 14th, going on to make a bogey six after finding water with his second shot, what had appeared to be a damp squib of a finish began to get exciting.
Following the back nine four strokes over par and five strokes behind the leader, Wolff rediscovered his stride on the back nine and trailed DeChambeau by only one shot after his third birdie in four holes at the par-five 15th. Long-shot backers were sweating as Bryson’s price soared to roughly -200 from a low of -5000. They didn’t have to do it.
DeChambeau made a lousy second shot after a good drive at 16, but it didn’t matter because he increased his lead with this 30-foot birdie putt. Bryson understood the significance of that putt. He went on to win by three strokes with birdies at 17 and 18. After a dismal level-par 72, Wolff ended alone in second place.
This was the American’s sixth PGA Tour victory and eighth top-ten finish in a row, propelling him to seventh place in the World Rankings.
Horses for Courses
The Detroit Golf Club made its PGA TOUR debut in 2019, and we’ve learned a few things after watching it in action twice.
The par 72 course is 7,370 yards, an increase of 30 yards from the previous year. This is due to a new tee box on the par-4 12th hole, which now measures 489 yards instead of 459. Distance is always advantageous, but you’ll have a chance to compete this week if you can keep it between the pipes. As long as you play from the fairway, there are plenty of opportunities to score. When approaching from the fairway, the field has averaged 82 percent GIR in both tournaments.
The overall scoring situation is straightforward, attracting a more significant number of golfers as potential competitors. They’re using traditional cool-season grasses with a bent/poa mix on the fairways and greens, and the rough is bluegrass. The turtleback greens contain many tiers and undulations.
Where’s the money?
Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:
Bryson DeChambeau 15-2
Hideki Matsuyama 14-1
Patrick Reed 14-1
Webb Simpson 18-1
Will Zalatoris 22-1
Jason Kokrak 25-1
Joaquin Niemann 28-1
Jason Day 28-1
Matthew Wolff 28-1
Sungjae Im 33-1
Rickie Fowler 33-1
Kevin Kisner 35-1
Keegan Bradley 40-1
Bubba Watson 40-1
Cameron Tringale 40-1
Gary Woodland 40-1
Charley Hoffman 40-1
Emiliano Grillo 50-1
Garrick Higgo 50-1
Doc Redman 50-1
Brandt Snedeker 50-1
Brendon Todd 60-1
Adam Hadwin 66-1
Harold Varner 66-1
Lucas Glover 66-1
Kyle Stanley 66-1
Phil Mickelson 66-1
Max Homa 66-1
Alex Noren 66-1
Si-Woo Kim 66-1
Chez Reavie 66-1
Sepp Straka 80-1
Erik Van Rooyen 80-1
Maverick McNealy 80-1
Lanto Griffin 80-1
Charles Howell 100-1
Danny Lee 100-1
Ryan Armour 125-1
Pat Perez 125-1
MacKenzie Hughes 125-1
Hank Lebioda 125-1
Matt Jones 125-1
Luke List 125-1
Danny Willett 125-1
Chris Kirk 125-1
Kramer Hickok 125-1
Andrew Putnam 150-1
Patrick Rodgers 150-1
Adam Long 150-1
Chesson Hadley 150-1
Brice Garnett 150-1
Doug Ghim 150-1
Patton Kizzire 150-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 150-1
Beau Hossler 150-1
Russell Knox 150-1
Joel Dahmen 150-1
Scott Stallings 150-1
Cameron Davis 150-1
Troy Merritt 150-1
Mark Hubbard 150-1
Cameron Champ 150-1
Nate Lashley 150-1
Kevin Chappell 150-1
Joseph Bramlett 150-1
Matthew NeSmith 150-1
Will Gordon 150-1
Tom Lewis 150-1
Rory Sabbatini 150-1
Martin Laird 200-1
Vincent Whaley 200-1
Michael Thompson 200-1
Sebastian Munoz 200-1
Jimmy Walker 200-1
Scott Piercy 200-1
Nick Taylor 200-1
Dylan Frittelli 200-1
Richy Werenski 200-1
Austin Eckroat 200-1
Henrik Norlander 200-1
Byeong Hun An 200-1
Brian Stuard 200-1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 200-1
Chase Seiffert 250-1
Tom Hoge 250-1
Harry Higgs 250-1
Denny McCarthy 250-1
Satoshi Kodaira 250-1
J.B. Holmes 250-1
Camilo Villegas 250-1
Vaughn Taylor 250-1
Adam Schenk 250-1
Bo Hoag 250-1
Sam Ryder 250-1
James Hahn 250-1
Curtis Thompson 250-1
Jason Dufner 300-1
Roger Sloan 300-1
Tyler Duncan 300-1
Anirban Lahiri 300-1
J.J. Spaun 300-1
Bo Van Pelt 300-1
Robert Streb 300-1
Robby Shelton 300-1
Kris Ventura 350-1
Brandon Hagy 350-1
Luke Donald 350-1
Jonas Blixt 350-1
Davis Thompson 350-1
Bronson Burgoon 350-1
Aaron Baddeley 400-1
Rob Oppenheim 400-1
Austin Cook 400-1
Grayson Murray 400-1
Tyler McCumber 400-1
Rafael Campos 400-1
Sung-Hoon Kang 400-1
Andrew Landry 400-1
Peter Malnati 400-1
Rhein Gibson 400-1
Michael Gellerman 500-1
Michael Gligic 500-1
David Hearn 500-1
Ted Potter 500-1
Scott Harrington 500-1
Ben Taylor 500-1
Ryan Brehm 500-1
Fabian Gomez 500-1
Chris Baker 500-1
Willie Mack 500-1
Scott Brown 500-1
Nick Watney 500-1
Kevin Tway 500-1
Matt Every 500-1
Jim Knous 500-1
Sebastian Cappelen 500-1
Michael Kim 500-1
Sean O’Hair 500-1
John Pak 500-1
Mark Anderson 500-1
Brian Gay 500-1
K.J. Choi 500-1
D.J. Trahan 500-1
Cameron Percy 500-1
William McGirt 500-1
Kevin Stadler 750-1
Nelson Ledesma 750-1
Hunter Mahan 750-1
Martin Trainer 1000-1
Jeff Roth 1000-1
Harrison Frazar 1000-1
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
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