Each week, BeerLife Sports writers publish their picks for NFL player prop bets. This is an assessment of those selections, the same as we do for the betting results of The Oracle, the premiere handicapper at BeerLife Sports.
At BeerLife, we believe in sharing the details, the hits, and misses of our staff’s picks in an effort to be the most, if not the only, 100% transparent sports betting information channel.
For NFL Week 15, The Professor, Erich Richter, and Joe Kieman combined for 16 player-prop bets and a two-leg parlay.
The results are in, with prices courtesy of DraftKings:
The Professor
Placed eight bets, went 4-4.
- Packers QB Aaron Rodgers over 2.5 touchdowns passing, +160: Won (3)
- Cowboys QB Dak Prescott over 1.5 touchdowns passing, -160; over 277.5 yards passing, -115: Lost (1); Lost (217)
- Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger under 260.5 yards passing, -115: Won (148)
- Steelers RB Najee Harris over 3.5 receptions: Lost (2)
- Bucs QB Tom Brady under 301.5 yards passing, -115: Won (214)
- Saints QB Taysom Hill under 259.5 total yards, -115: Won (154)
- Cardinals WR A.J. Green to score a touchdown, +160: Lost
Analysis
Bad news or good news first? First, who takes good news first?
The Dak Attack was not back, jack. The ‘boys signal-caller failed to hit either of his main prop bets against the G-Men. Travel 370 miles West-ish from MetLife Stadium to Heinz Field and Najee Harris caught two passes to complement his day on the ground: 12 carries for 18 yards. In Detroit, the Cardinals trailed for the entire game, lending the game script to passing and giving A.J. Green a bettor’s shot at hauling in a touchdown. Nope.
Now the good news.
A quartet of quarterbacks cashed their props for The Professor. Like a good neighbor, Aaron Rodgers tossed three TD passes to hit the tasty +160 price tag. Big Ben thankfully underwhelmed through the air. The Lord of the Rings looked like a 44-year-old playing a child’s game, throwing for well under his yards-passing mark. To respect our elders, he also lost his top-three pass-catchers during the game. Books put Brady’s counterpart, Taysom Hill, at 259.5 combined yards passing and rushing. Tim Tebow reincarnated logged 154 through the air and 33 on the ground. Cha-ching.
Erich Richter
Placed five bets, went 4-1.
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence over 29.5 attempts passing, -120: Won (38)
- Jaguars RB James Robinson under 86.5 yards rushing, -115: Won (75)
- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor over 18.5 attempts rushing, -130: Won (29)
- Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger over 36.5 attempts passing, +110: Lost (25)
- Titans QB Ryan Tannehill over 28.5 attempts passing, -115: Won (32)
Analysis
Mr. Erich Richter was almost Mr. Perfect on his Week 15 slate of player props, with Big Ben the only one who gave him the business by airing it out 25 times, well under his mark of 36.5. Jonathan Taylor over 18.5 attempts rushing was the heaviest price to pay from Richter’s five bets but easily cashed. In the words of a former Colts player, “You can’t go broke taking a profit.” — Andrew Luck, who may have heard someone else say that first.
Joe Kieman
Placed three bets and a two-leg parlay, going 1-1 so far on straight bets and a busted parlay.
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence over 205.5 yards passing: Won (210)
- Seahawks QB Russell Wilson over 235.5 yards passing: TBD
- Bucs QB Tom Brady over 294.5 yards passing: Lost (214)
- Parlay: Brady over 294.5 yards passing + Bucs WR Chris Godwin over 69.5 yards receiving: Lost both
Analysis
Hard knocks hit the Bucs on Sunday night and most of Kieman’s wagers as a result. Godwin finished as the team’s top receiver in receptions (6) and yards receiving (49) but was lost fairly early in the game, and now the season, with what was later diagnosed as a torn ACL.
Mario Sanelli writes about sports betting for BeerLife Sports. He previously was the editorial assistant and a general-assignment reporter at The Denver Post for five years after serving as chief editor of The Metropolitan at MSU Denver. Mario was a NFL and college football insider with Mile High Sports for six years.
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