2021 Northern Trust: Odds Preview

2021 Northern Trust- Odds Preview

Setting the scene

The 2021 FedEx Cup Playoffs have arrived after a long season, and the top 125 players on the PGA Tour will battle for the title beginning on Thursday at the 2021 Northern Trust. Players are tired but focused after four majors in 13 months, including the Olympics and a WGC event at the end of the regular season.

Dustin Johnson is looking to defend his Northern Trust and FedEx Cup championships, while Jon Rahm is looking to finish a season that produced his first major victory but two costly positive COVID tests. Red-hot among the numerous famous names in the 2021 Northern Trust field are Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, and Olympic gold winner Xander Schauffele.

It all starts on a course with breathtaking views of the Manhattan skyline and Lady Liberty herself, making Patrick Reed’s victory in 2019 all the more meaningful. At an exposed layout built on an old refuse site, the self-styled Captain America grittily defeated Jon Rahm, Abraham Ancer, and Harold Varner in a renewal that demonstrated that conditions could play a significant role here, at a layout that is very different from TPC Boston, where Scottie Scheffler fired a breathless 59 before Dustin Johnson won last year.

Low scores are still on the menu at this more demanding course, with Troy Merritt carding a 62 two years ago and Johnson a single shot higher.

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Regardless of what happens over the first two days or so, when Tropical Storm Fred's reach may mean there are soft objectives to strive for, Liberty National should begin to show teeth over the weekend and demand something from each facet of a player's game. It's not for the faint of heart.

Betting Angles

The first FedEx Cup Playoff tournament, which took place in 2009, was won by players rated 124th, 9th, 19th, 49th, 11th, 62nd, 2nd, 7th, 4th, and 9th heading into the tournament.

Naturally, with the FedEx Cup Playoffs consisting of only three legs for the first time this season, it will be interesting to see how and if this dynamic shifts. These are significant tournaments to win. All of the Barclays/Northern Trust winners in the Playoff era have won multiple PGA Tour events, with eight of the last nine renewals all going to players who had previously won on the PGA Tour in North America's up-state circuit.

Here are some winning trends to follow and look out for this week.

Age – 12 of the last 12 winners were aged 36 or younger
Position After Round 1 – 11/12 winners were in the top 21 after Round 1
Position After Round 2 – 11/12 winners were in the top 8 after Round 2
Position After Round 3 – 10/12 winners were in the top 5 after Round 3
Career Events – 9/12 winners had at least 200 previous career starts
Career Wins – 11/12 winners had at least three previous career wins, 10/12 winners had at least four previous career wins

The course at Liberty National has a links feel to it, so intelligent course management will be crucial, especially if the wind picks up. Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, which highlights the top golfing talent on Tour, is the go-to statistic for relatively unfamiliar courses. Players will need to drive the ball well and dial in their iron play-on approach.

The course is an excellent all-around test of golf, with players needing to putt and scramble well in particular.

Horses for courses

The majestic stone wall at the Liberty National Golf Club.

This week's host is the Liberty National Golf Club. We've seen it in action at the 2009 and 2013 Barclays, the 2017 Presidents Cup, and the 2019 Northern Trust. This 2006 design, created by Bob Cupp and Tom Kite, was erected on a landfill and was initially unwelcomed at the 2009 Barclays. However, it was given a makeover in preparation for the 2013 edition, and the players seem to prefer it today. Some of the adjustments were connected to the course's setup.

The course conditions will dictate tactics off the tee. The course, which is a par 71 and plays to 7,410 yards, necessitates the use of a driver on the majority of the par 4s unless the conditions are hard and fast. To learn more about the projected course conditions, we'll need to listen to pre-tournament press conferences. Golfers will face water hazards on more than half of the holes, 98 bunkers, and tiny greens from there. That doesn't seem very easy, and until you get to the greens, you'll be dealing with fast, undulating bentgrass greens.

Overall, it's going to be a challenging projected scoring situation with a lot of huge numbers. In previous Liberty National events, the winning scores were 9-under in 2009, 11-under in 2013, and 16-under in 2019. If

Where’s the money?

Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:

Jon Rahm 10-1
Jordan Spieth 16-1
Dustin Johnson 16-1
Collin Morikawa 18-1
Xander Schauffele 20-1
Brooks Koepka 20-1
Rory McIlroy 22-1
Justin Thomas 25-1
Bryson DeChambeau 25-1
Daniel Berger 28-1
Abraham Ancer 28-1
Scottie Scheffler 30-1
Viktor Hovland 30-1
Hideki Matsuyama 33-1
Patrick Cantlay 33-1
Webb Simpson 35-1
Paul Casey 35-1
Cameron Smith 35-1
Adam Scott 40-1
Harris English 40-1
Patrick Reed 40-1
Tony Finau 50-1
Sam Burns 50-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 50-1
Corey Conners 55-1
Tyrrell Hatton 55-1
Kevin Kisner 60-1
Joaquin Niemann 60-1
Jason Kokrak 66-1
Sungjae Im 66-1
Shane Lowry 66-1
Brian Harman 66-1
Ian Poulter 66-1
Russell Henley 66-1
Si-Woo Kim 80-1
Sergio Garcia 80-1
Branden Grace 80-1
Billy Horschel 90-1
Marc Leishman 100-1
Phil Mickelson 100-1
Jason Day 100-1
Kevin Streelman 100-1
Seamus Power 100-1
Cameron Champ 100-1
Maverick McNealy 125-1
Keegan Bradley 125-1
Alex Noren 125-1
Lee Westwood 125-1
Gary Woodland 125-1
MacKenzie Hughes 125-1
Matthew Wolff 125-1
Charley Hoffman 125-1
Brendon Todd 125-1
Stewart Cink 125-1
Garrick Higgo 125-1
Cameron Davis 125-1
Bubba Watson 125-1
Sebastian Munoz 125-1
Emiliano Grillo 125-1
Ryan Palmer 125-1
Roger Sloan 150-1
Matt Wallace 150-1
Brandt Snedeker 150-1
C.T. Pan 150-1
Max Homa 150-1
Aaron Wise 150-1
Carlos Ortiz 150-1
Chris Kirk 150-1
Charl Schwartzel 150-1
Jhonattan Vegas 150-1
Harold Varner 150-1
Erik Van Rooyen 150-1
Talor Gooch 175-1
Pat Perez 200-1
Troy Merritt 200-1
Patton Kizzire 200-1
Lucas Glover 200-1
Joel Dahmen 200-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 200-1
Zach Johnson 200-1
Doug Ghim 200-1
Brian Stuard 200-1
Chez Reavie 200-1
Hank Lebioda 200-1
Adam Hadwin 200-1
J.T. Poston 200-1
Scott Piercy 250-1
Brice Garnett 250-1
Matt Kuchar 250-1
Kyle Stanley 250-1
Sepp Straka 250-1
Keith Mitchell 250-1
Brandon Hagy 250-1
Luke List 250-1
Russell Knox 250-1
Andrew Putnam 250-1
Scott Stallings 250-1
Adam Schenk 250-1
Matt Jones 250-1
Brendan Steele 250-1
Dylan Frittelli 250-1
James Hahn 300-1
Henrik Norlander 300-1
Martin Laird 300-1
Matthew NeSmith 300-1
Lanto Griffin 300-1
Adam Long 300-1
Kramer Hickok 300-1
Sam Ryder 300-1
Chesson Hadley 300-1
Doc Redman 300-1
Denny McCarthy 300-1
Tyler McCumber 350-1
Harry Higgs 350-1
Richy Werenski 350-1
Robert Streb 400-1
Peter Malnati 400-1
Anirban Lahiri 400-1
Wyndham Clark 400-1
Hudson Swafford 500-1
Tom Hoge 500-1
Brian Gay 750-1

Freelance Sports Writer | + posts

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My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.

I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.

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