NLF DFS Week 2: Wide Receiver Cheat Sheet

NFL Week 2 Wide Receiver Picks And Analysis

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NLF DFS Week 2- Wide Receiver Cheat Sheet

In the NFL’s opening weekend, DFS players saw wide-receiver performances play out all across the board. Tyreke Hill started his season on fire, while Davante Adams left owners disappointed.

With a week in the books to analyze the data and check out the film, we are back with week two projections for wide receivers. First, we will examine which wideouts are projected to see plenty of targets.

Wide Receivers Projected Over 8 Targets In Week 1

PlayerYards ReceivingCatchesTargetsTeamOpponent
0K.ALLEN96.1666679.22222213.055556LACDAL
1D.ADAMS104.4285718.57142910.785714GBDET
2S.DIGGS97.5625008.06250010.375000BUFMIA
3D.HOPKINS93.7500007.56250010.250000ARIMIN
4C.RIDLEY92.8666676.3333339.600000ATLTB
5A.ROBINSON83.0000006.6875009.437500CHICIN
6T.HILL90.8666676.0000009.266667KCBAL
7C.KUPP67.9333336.4666678.400000LARIND
8T.LOCKETT67.8125006.3125008.312500SEATEN
9A.COOPER74.3125006.0625008.187500DALLAC
10B.COOKS81.1333335.8000008.133333HOUCLE

Another key aspect of selecting DFS wide receivers is evaluating the quality of their defensive matchup. The following table combines 2020 and 2021 data to rank the worst defenses at slowing number 1 wide receivers. These defenses should be targeted when selecting players.

Worst Defenses Against Number 1 Wide Receivers

Defense TeamYards ReceivingCatchesTargetsTDFantasy Projection
0DAL92.3333336.77777810.4444441.22222216.566667
1CIN73.3000005.7000008.0000000.80000012.130000
2ARI80.1818186.7272738.0000000.63636411.836364
3ATL81.0000005.6666677.6666670.60000011.700000
4NYJ81.4666676.1333338.3333330.53333311.346667
5NYG80.3000007.70000011.0000000.40000010.430000
6SEA75.9090917.0000009.4545450.45454510.318182
7NE63.8000005.0000006.6666670.6000009.980000
8DET78.7333335.2666677.7333330.3333339.873333
9JAX74.9285715.4285717.5000000.3571439.635714
10LV68.3846154.8461546.8461540.4615389.607692
11DEN68.3636366.0909098.9090910.4545459.563636
12HOU55.5384624.2307696.3846150.6153859.246154
13MIA71.3846154.8461547.7692310.3076928.984615
14BAL67.8181825.7272737.8181820.3636368.963636

Based on the targets and matchup data, it is clear that LA Chargers receiver Keenan Allen is a prime candidate for a breakout game. In week 1 against Washington, Allen hauled in 9 catches for 100 yards. Although he finished without a touchdown, Allen did have 3 red zone receptions on 4 targets.

According to the NFL Week 2 receiver model, there are 7 wideouts projected to have over 6 targets while also facing a favorable defensive matchup.

PlayerYards ReceivingCatchesTargetsTDTeamOpponentPoints ProjectedMatchup
0K.ALLEN96.1666679.22222213.0555560.7LACDAL21.351081Good Matchup
1A.THIELEN66.6666675.2000007.1333330.9MINARI14.870778Good Matchup
2A.ROBINSON83.0000006.6875009.4375000.4CHICIN13.797748Good Matchup
3C.GODWIN75.0000005.6666677.1666670.6TBATL13.767748Good Matchup
4J.MEYERS71.0000005.3333337.0000000.2NENYJ10.614415Good Matchup
5D.CHARK56.4615384.4615387.1538460.4JAXDEN8.577538Good Matchup
6J.JEUDY62.1250003.7500007.1250000.2DENJAX8.015962Good Matchup

One player that I am high on is Bears receiver, Allen Robinson. It didn’t take long for the drama to start-up in Chicago, as players vocalized their displeasure with Matt Nagy’s conservative offense. Given that Nagy is on the coaching hot seat, I like the Bears to open it up in week 2. And the player standing to benefit the most is Allen Robinson.

In Tampa Bay, quarterback Tom Brady has more receiving options than he knows what to do with. For DFS players this poses the risk of limited opportunities. However, in their opening game against Dallas, Brady had a clear connection with Chris Godwin. Inside the red zone, Godwin caught all 4 passes thrown his way, including a touchdown. The Buccaneer’s offense is primed for another big week as they host the lowly Atlanta Falcons.

Defensive Matchups To Avoid In Week 2

Defense TeamYards ReceivingCatchesTargetsTDFantasy Projection
0KC47.6666673.3333335.0000000.0833335.266667
1PHI48.6363643.7272735.0000000.2727276.500000
2PIT49.2000004.5000006.6000000.3000006.720000
3GB51.0000004.0000005.7142860.2857146.814286
4LAC53.5000003.7500007.4166670.2500006.850000
5SF46.6315794.4736845.8421050.4210537.189474
6WSH54.0000005.5000007.6000000.3000007.200000
7IND62.0000005.0909096.4545450.1818187.290909
8CAR68.3636365.2727277.6363640.2727278.472727

It is just as important to steer clear of choosing wide receivers with unfavorable matchups because there are schemes and individual players who consistently shut down top receiving options. The week 2 model shows it is best to fade Ravens receiver, Sammy Watkins.

In week 1, the Eagles did a great job of slowing down Matt Ryan and his connection with Calvin Ridley. The model projects 49ers QB Jimmy Garappolo and Deebo Samuel to fall back to earth after a monstrous opening game.

Week 2 Receivers With Bad Matchups

PlayerYards ReceivingCatchesTargetsTDTeamOpponentPoints ProjectedMatchup
1S.WATKINS45.5000003.9000005.8000000.3KCBAL6.281384Bad Matchup
2Z.PASCAL39.3750002.8750004.5000000.4INDLAR5.805248Bad Matchup
3D.JOHNSON33.1764713.5588245.1764710.2HOUCLE4.442538Bad Matchup
4H.RENFROW41.0625003.5000004.8125000.2LVPIT2.993998Bad Matchup
5Q.CEPHUS31.7272731.8181823.1818180.2DETGB2.154761Bad Matchup

Top Wide Receiver Lineup Combinations

The model for the top overall combinations shows that Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen should be locks in your DFS lineups. This is particularly true in DFS cash games vs tournament play.

Receiver 1Receiver 2Receiver 3Combined PointsCombined Salary% Cap$/PointSalary RemainingAvg $/Player Remaining
0K.ALLENA.THIELENC.GODWIN49.9896082300038.346000.0370006167.0
1K.ALLENA.THIELENS.DIGGS49.5304732250037.545400.0375006250.0
2K.ALLENA.THIELENM.EVANS48.7377242170036.244500.0383006383.0
3K.ALLENA.THIELENC.RIDLEY48.6486882270037.846700.0373006217.0
4K.ALLENA.THIELENJ.LANDRY47.0320892180036.346400.0382006367.0
5K.ALLENA.THIELENJ.MEYERS46.8362742050034.243800.0395006583.0
6K.ALLENA.THIELENJ.JEFFERSON46.7314742230037.247700.0377006283.0
7K.ALLENA.THIELENB.COOKS46.6600842160036.046300.0384006400.0
8K.ALLENA.THIELENJ.SMITH-SCHUSTER46.1838942100035.045500.0390006500.0
9K.ALLENA.THIELENT.LOCKETT46.0441912220037.048200.0378006300.0

Less Expensive Value Options

This group of combinations keeps you under having to use more than 33% of your cap and maximizes value.

Receiver 1Receiver 2Receiver 3Combined PointsCombined Salary% Cap$/PointSalary RemainingAvg $/Player Remaining
0K.ALLENM.EVANSJ.MEYERS44.4813601960032.744100.0404006733.0
1K.ALLENJ.MEYERSJ.GUYTON39.8209431770029.544400.0423007050.0
2K.ALLENA.THIELENJ.GUYTON44.0773071980033.044900.0402006700.0
3K.ALLENJ.MEYERSJ.SMITH-SCHUSTER41.9275301890031.545100.0411006850.0
4K.ALLENM.EVANSJ.GUYTON41.7223931890031.545300.0411006850.0

Bargain Hunting

If you feel like loading up on the top quarterbacks and wide receivers this week, here are your bargain combinations that still give you the most upside.

Receiver 1Receiver 2Receiver 3Combined PointsCombined Salary% Cap$/PointSalary RemainingAvg $/Player Remaining
0J.GUYTONM.GALLUPZ.PASCAL19.9848931490024.874600.0451007517.0
1J.GUYTONM.GALLUPH.RENFROW17.1736431480024.786200.0452007533.0
2J.GUYTONZ.PASCALH.RENFROW16.6546931490024.889500.0451007517.0
3J.GUYTONC.BEASLEYB.BERRIOS13.8402641490024.8107700.0451007517.0
4J.GUYTONJ.REAGORB.BERRIOS13.6253401470024.5107900.0453007550.0

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