In the NFL’s opening weekend, DFS players saw wide-receiver performances play out all across the board. Tyreke Hill started his season on fire, while Davante Adams left owners disappointed.
With a week in the books to analyze the data and check out the film, we are back with week two projections for wide receivers. First, we will examine which wideouts are projected to see plenty of targets.
Wide Receivers Projected Over 8 Targets In Week 1
| Player | Yards Receiving | Catches | Targets | Team | Opponent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | K.ALLEN | 96.166667 | 9.222222 | 13.055556 | LAC | DAL |
| 1 | D.ADAMS | 104.428571 | 8.571429 | 10.785714 | GB | DET |
| 2 | S.DIGGS | 97.562500 | 8.062500 | 10.375000 | BUF | MIA |
| 3 | D.HOPKINS | 93.750000 | 7.562500 | 10.250000 | ARI | MIN |
| 4 | C.RIDLEY | 92.866667 | 6.333333 | 9.600000 | ATL | TB |
| 5 | A.ROBINSON | 83.000000 | 6.687500 | 9.437500 | CHI | CIN |
| 6 | T.HILL | 90.866667 | 6.000000 | 9.266667 | KC | BAL |
| 7 | C.KUPP | 67.933333 | 6.466667 | 8.400000 | LAR | IND |
| 8 | T.LOCKETT | 67.812500 | 6.312500 | 8.312500 | SEA | TEN |
| 9 | A.COOPER | 74.312500 | 6.062500 | 8.187500 | DAL | LAC |
| 10 | B.COOKS | 81.133333 | 5.800000 | 8.133333 | HOU | CLE |
Another key aspect of selecting DFS wide receivers is evaluating the quality of their defensive matchup. The following table combines 2020 and 2021 data to rank the worst defenses at slowing number 1 wide receivers. These defenses should be targeted when selecting players.
Worst Defenses Against Number 1 Wide Receivers
| Defense Team | Yards Receiving | Catches | Targets | TD | Fantasy Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | DAL | 92.333333 | 6.777778 | 10.444444 | 1.222222 | 16.566667 |
| 1 | CIN | 73.300000 | 5.700000 | 8.000000 | 0.800000 | 12.130000 |
| 2 | ARI | 80.181818 | 6.727273 | 8.000000 | 0.636364 | 11.836364 |
| 3 | ATL | 81.000000 | 5.666667 | 7.666667 | 0.600000 | 11.700000 |
| 4 | NYJ | 81.466667 | 6.133333 | 8.333333 | 0.533333 | 11.346667 |
| 5 | NYG | 80.300000 | 7.700000 | 11.000000 | 0.400000 | 10.430000 |
| 6 | SEA | 75.909091 | 7.000000 | 9.454545 | 0.454545 | 10.318182 |
| 7 | NE | 63.800000 | 5.000000 | 6.666667 | 0.600000 | 9.980000 |
| 8 | DET | 78.733333 | 5.266667 | 7.733333 | 0.333333 | 9.873333 |
| 9 | JAX | 74.928571 | 5.428571 | 7.500000 | 0.357143 | 9.635714 |
| 10 | LV | 68.384615 | 4.846154 | 6.846154 | 0.461538 | 9.607692 |
| 11 | DEN | 68.363636 | 6.090909 | 8.909091 | 0.454545 | 9.563636 |
| 12 | HOU | 55.538462 | 4.230769 | 6.384615 | 0.615385 | 9.246154 |
| 13 | MIA | 71.384615 | 4.846154 | 7.769231 | 0.307692 | 8.984615 |
| 14 | BAL | 67.818182 | 5.727273 | 7.818182 | 0.363636 | 8.963636 |
Based on the targets and matchup data, it is clear that LA Chargers receiver Keenan Allen is a prime candidate for a breakout game. In week 1 against Washington, Allen hauled in 9 catches for 100 yards. Although he finished without a touchdown, Allen did have 3 red zone receptions on 4 targets.
According to the NFL Week 2 receiver model, there are 7 wideouts projected to have over 6 targets while also facing a favorable defensive matchup.
| Player | Yards Receiving | Catches | Targets | TD | Team | Opponent | Points Projected | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | K.ALLEN | 96.166667 | 9.222222 | 13.055556 | 0.7 | LAC | DAL | 21.351081 | Good Matchup |
| 1 | A.THIELEN | 66.666667 | 5.200000 | 7.133333 | 0.9 | MIN | ARI | 14.870778 | Good Matchup |
| 2 | A.ROBINSON | 83.000000 | 6.687500 | 9.437500 | 0.4 | CHI | CIN | 13.797748 | Good Matchup |
| 3 | C.GODWIN | 75.000000 | 5.666667 | 7.166667 | 0.6 | TB | ATL | 13.767748 | Good Matchup |
| 4 | J.MEYERS | 71.000000 | 5.333333 | 7.000000 | 0.2 | NE | NYJ | 10.614415 | Good Matchup |
| 5 | D.CHARK | 56.461538 | 4.461538 | 7.153846 | 0.4 | JAX | DEN | 8.577538 | Good Matchup |
| 6 | J.JEUDY | 62.125000 | 3.750000 | 7.125000 | 0.2 | DEN | JAX | 8.015962 | Good Matchup |
One player that I am high on is Bears receiver, Allen Robinson. It didn’t take long for the drama to start-up in Chicago, as players vocalized their displeasure with Matt Nagy’s conservative offense. Given that Nagy is on the coaching hot seat, I like the Bears to open it up in week 2. And the player standing to benefit the most is Allen Robinson.
In Tampa Bay, quarterback Tom Brady has more receiving options than he knows what to do with. For DFS players this poses the risk of limited opportunities. However, in their opening game against Dallas, Brady had a clear connection with Chris Godwin. Inside the red zone, Godwin caught all 4 passes thrown his way, including a touchdown. The Buccaneer’s offense is primed for another big week as they host the lowly Atlanta Falcons.
Defensive Matchups To Avoid In Week 2
| Defense Team | Yards Receiving | Catches | Targets | TD | Fantasy Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | KC | 47.666667 | 3.333333 | 5.000000 | 0.083333 | 5.266667 |
| 1 | PHI | 48.636364 | 3.727273 | 5.000000 | 0.272727 | 6.500000 |
| 2 | PIT | 49.200000 | 4.500000 | 6.600000 | 0.300000 | 6.720000 |
| 3 | GB | 51.000000 | 4.000000 | 5.714286 | 0.285714 | 6.814286 |
| 4 | LAC | 53.500000 | 3.750000 | 7.416667 | 0.250000 | 6.850000 |
| 5 | SF | 46.631579 | 4.473684 | 5.842105 | 0.421053 | 7.189474 |
| 6 | WSH | 54.000000 | 5.500000 | 7.600000 | 0.300000 | 7.200000 |
| 7 | IND | 62.000000 | 5.090909 | 6.454545 | 0.181818 | 7.290909 |
| 8 | CAR | 68.363636 | 5.272727 | 7.636364 | 0.272727 | 8.472727 |
It is just as important to steer clear of choosing wide receivers with unfavorable matchups because there are schemes and individual players who consistently shut down top receiving options. The week 2 model shows it is best to fade Ravens receiver, Sammy Watkins.
In week 1, the Eagles did a great job of slowing down Matt Ryan and his connection with Calvin Ridley. The model projects 49ers QB Jimmy Garappolo and Deebo Samuel to fall back to earth after a monstrous opening game.
Week 2 Receivers With Bad Matchups
| Player | Yards Receiving | Catches | Targets | TD | Team | Opponent | Points Projected | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S.WATKINS | 45.500000 | 3.900000 | 5.800000 | 0.3 | KC | BAL | 6.281384 | Bad Matchup |
| 2 | Z.PASCAL | 39.375000 | 2.875000 | 4.500000 | 0.4 | IND | LAR | 5.805248 | Bad Matchup |
| 3 | D.JOHNSON | 33.176471 | 3.558824 | 5.176471 | 0.2 | HOU | CLE | 4.442538 | Bad Matchup |
| 4 | H.RENFROW | 41.062500 | 3.500000 | 4.812500 | 0.2 | LV | PIT | 2.993998 | Bad Matchup |
| 5 | Q.CEPHUS | 31.727273 | 1.818182 | 3.181818 | 0.2 | DET | GB | 2.154761 | Bad Matchup |
Top Wide Receiver Lineup Combinations
The model for the top overall combinations shows that Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen should be locks in your DFS lineups. This is particularly true in DFS cash games vs tournament play.
| Receiver 1 | Receiver 2 | Receiver 3 | Combined Points | Combined Salary | % Cap | $/Point | Salary Remaining | Avg $/Player Remaining | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | K.ALLEN | A.THIELEN | C.GODWIN | 49.989608 | 23000 | 38.3 | 46000.0 | 37000 | 6167.0 |
| 1 | K.ALLEN | A.THIELEN | S.DIGGS | 49.530473 | 22500 | 37.5 | 45400.0 | 37500 | 6250.0 |
| 2 | K.ALLEN | A.THIELEN | M.EVANS | 48.737724 | 21700 | 36.2 | 44500.0 | 38300 | 6383.0 |
| 3 | K.ALLEN | A.THIELEN | C.RIDLEY | 48.648688 | 22700 | 37.8 | 46700.0 | 37300 | 6217.0 |
| 4 | K.ALLEN | A.THIELEN | J.LANDRY | 47.032089 | 21800 | 36.3 | 46400.0 | 38200 | 6367.0 |
| 5 | K.ALLEN | A.THIELEN | J.MEYERS | 46.836274 | 20500 | 34.2 | 43800.0 | 39500 | 6583.0 |
| 6 | K.ALLEN | A.THIELEN | J.JEFFERSON | 46.731474 | 22300 | 37.2 | 47700.0 | 37700 | 6283.0 |
| 7 | K.ALLEN | A.THIELEN | B.COOKS | 46.660084 | 21600 | 36.0 | 46300.0 | 38400 | 6400.0 |
| 8 | K.ALLEN | A.THIELEN | J.SMITH-SCHUSTER | 46.183894 | 21000 | 35.0 | 45500.0 | 39000 | 6500.0 |
| 9 | K.ALLEN | A.THIELEN | T.LOCKETT | 46.044191 | 22200 | 37.0 | 48200.0 | 37800 | 6300.0 |
Less Expensive Value Options
This group of combinations keeps you under having to use more than 33% of your cap and maximizes value.
| Receiver 1 | Receiver 2 | Receiver 3 | Combined Points | Combined Salary | % Cap | $/Point | Salary Remaining | Avg $/Player Remaining | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | K.ALLEN | M.EVANS | J.MEYERS | 44.481360 | 19600 | 32.7 | 44100.0 | 40400 | 6733.0 |
| 1 | K.ALLEN | J.MEYERS | J.GUYTON | 39.820943 | 17700 | 29.5 | 44400.0 | 42300 | 7050.0 |
| 2 | K.ALLEN | A.THIELEN | J.GUYTON | 44.077307 | 19800 | 33.0 | 44900.0 | 40200 | 6700.0 |
| 3 | K.ALLEN | J.MEYERS | J.SMITH-SCHUSTER | 41.927530 | 18900 | 31.5 | 45100.0 | 41100 | 6850.0 |
| 4 | K.ALLEN | M.EVANS | J.GUYTON | 41.722393 | 18900 | 31.5 | 45300.0 | 41100 | 6850.0 |
Bargain Hunting
If you feel like loading up on the top quarterbacks and wide receivers this week, here are your bargain combinations that still give you the most upside.
| Receiver 1 | Receiver 2 | Receiver 3 | Combined Points | Combined Salary | % Cap | $/Point | Salary Remaining | Avg $/Player Remaining | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | J.GUYTON | M.GALLUP | Z.PASCAL | 19.984893 | 14900 | 24.8 | 74600.0 | 45100 | 7517.0 |
| 1 | J.GUYTON | M.GALLUP | H.RENFROW | 17.173643 | 14800 | 24.7 | 86200.0 | 45200 | 7533.0 |
| 2 | J.GUYTON | Z.PASCAL | H.RENFROW | 16.654693 | 14900 | 24.8 | 89500.0 | 45100 | 7517.0 |
| 3 | J.GUYTON | C.BEASLEY | B.BERRIOS | 13.840264 | 14900 | 24.8 | 107700.0 | 45100 | 7517.0 |
| 4 | J.GUYTON | J.REAGOR | B.BERRIOS | 13.625340 | 14700 | 24.5 | 107900.0 | 45300 | 7550.0 |
You must log in to post a comment.