NFL Week 8 Prop Bet Recap
Last week, my three prop bet recommendations went 2-1, putting the season total at 17-3 (80.9%). If Joe Burrow had thrown for just three more yards, it would have been another 3-0 week.
Packers @ Chiefs Prop Bets
Jordan Love Under 234.5 Passing Yards
This week we were finally going to see the much-anticipated matchup of Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. However, once again we will miss out on a battle between MVP quarterbacks as Rodgers is out due to contracting COVID 19. Despite the change of plans, this game now has another interesting storyline as Jordan Love is set to make his first career start.
To no fault of his own, the presence of Jordan Love on the Green Bay roster was at the center of the off-season drama between Rodgers and the Packers. Heading into the season, it seemed almost a guarantee that this would be the reigning MVP’s last go-around with the team. Meaning, Green Bay would be handing the reigns over to Love in 2022. With Rodgers’ absence, we get an early glimpse as to what life might be like for Packers in a post-Rodgers scenario.
When the news broke on Aaron Rogers, I was immediately interested in where the passing yard over-under line would be set for Jordan Love. On the one hand, he is making his first career start at Arrowhead Stadium, one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. And on the other, he is facing the Chief’s 25th rated passing defense, giving up 269 pass yards per game.
Despite having a favorable matchup in the passing game, I expect the Packers to come out looking to run the ball. Along with having one of the NFL’s worst secondary’s, Kansas City also struggles to stop the run. I believe this would have been the game plan even with Rodgers under center. Now that Love is the one taking snaps, look for a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
Patrick Mahomes Over 289.5 Passing Yards
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has an over-under total of 289.5 passing yards. So far this season, he has surpassed this number in just 3/8 of his contests. By all accounts, Mahomes’ 2021-2022 season has not gone according to plan. The team’s 4-4 record is not entirely his fault, but his season-long trend of throwing interceptions has been a hot topic in KC.
Last week vs. the Giants, the former MVP threw for 275 yards on 48 attempts. His yards per attempt number of 5.7, was his second-lowest mark of the season. However, it has not all been bad for Mahomes who is still capable of putting up a monster game, made evident by his 337, 343, and 397 passing yard performances in weeks 1,2, and 6.
In this week’s game vs. Green Bay, I see Patrick Mahomes turning in a performance that reminds everyone why he is still the most talented quarterback in the NFL.
Since their embarrassing performance in week 1, the Packers’ defense has held up well. Through eight games, they are 6th in the NFL in pass yards per game (216.8). Most recently, they allowed 274 yards on 22 completions to Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. Even though Murray is one of the front runners for NFL MVP, the Arizona offense is built differently than how Mahomes and the Chiefs will try to attack the Green Bay defense.
Without top-cornerback Jaire Alexander, Kansas City won’t have to get creative when trying to find favorable matchups for Tyreek Hill. No matter who the Packers line up against Hill, he will have the mismatch.
In this game, look for Patrick Mahomes to have his 4th +300 yard passing yard performance of the season. Making him an easy bet to go over his line of 289.5.
Browns @ Chiefs Prop Bets
Baker Mayfield Over 227.5 Passing Yards
In his matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals, quarterback Baker Mayfield has a passing yard over-under line of 227.5. This week, the storyline surrounding Cleveland had less to do with their game with the Bengals as opposed to more issues involving Odell Beckham Jr. The latest news being that the disgruntled wide receiver will be released from the team.
Although the mid-week drama is never a good thing for an NFL team looking to prepare for a key divisional game, I don’t see Beckham’s absence overly affecting Baker Mayfield’s passing yard outlook.
This season, Mayfield has surpassed his line of 227.5 in 57% of his games. On average, the Browns quarterback throws for 242 yards. Although there is not a lot of upside to Baker Mayfield’s game, he is also one of the more consistent quarterbacks in terms of “range of outcomes”.
As seen in the table below, Mayfield’s “bad” performances are not drastically different from his “great” ones. Meaning, he is highly unlikely to blow past his over-under total. In all likelihood, he will have bettors sweating it out into the 4th quarter. But, the great thing about betting is that we don’t need him to have a career game. We make the same amount of money whether he throws for 228 yards or 400.
Given that he is facing a Bengals defense ranked 23rd in passing yards allowed per game and that he is almost a lock to get at least 30 passing attempts, I like Baker Mayfield to put in a performance taking him over 227.5 passing yards.
| Player | This Weeks Line | Over% | Passing Yards In Average Game | Average Game Over% | Passing Yards In Great Game | Great Game Over% | Passing Yards In Bad Game | Bad Game Over% | +- Projected Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 227.5 | 57.0 | 242.714286 | 43.0 | 258.0 | 29.0 | 223.0 | 71.0 | 9.47619 |
Joe Burrow Under 265.5 Passing Yards
This week I will be taking another stab at a Joe Burrow prop bet, as he fell just three yards short of leading me to another 3-0 week of prop bets. However, in week nine I am playing the other side and taking the Bengals quarterback to finish below his line of 265.5.
While no one can argue that Joe Burrow has had a sensational 2021-2022 season, I am starting to feel that there is some regression in store in store for his near future.
So far, Burrow and his receiving corps have been extremely efficient with their opportunities through the air. Despite ranking 28th in pass plays per game, the unit is ranked 11th in pass yards game. There are additional discrepancies between attempts and production that allude to the Cincinnatti passing offense coming back down to earth.
I see this week’s matchup vs. the Browns as a candidate for this to take place. So far, the Bengal’s offensive line is ranked 30th in their ability to protect Burrow in the pocket. This will be a big problem vs. a Cleveland defensive ranked 3rd in the NFL in sacks per game (2.7).
Without a clean pocket, I foresee the Burrow and the Cincinnati offense struggling to move the ball. Because of this, I have also targeted this game as one of the contests likely to fall below its line of 47 total points.
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