NFL Week 8 Ownership Recap
- Chris Godwin was the top owned receiver in cash game formats with an ownership percentage of 52%.
- As the most expensive DFS receiver, Cooper Kupp was owned in 14% of DFS lineups.
- A.J Brown was the top prodicing receiver, ranking 4th in ownership percentage (14%)
- Tyler Lockett finished with 29 fantasy points while being owned in just 1.65% of DFS lineups
Davante Adams (Fanduel $9000) vs Tyreke Hill (Fanduel $8500)
Heading into week nine, the two most expensive players at the wide receiver position are Davante Adams and Tyreke Hill. This is not the first time either player has sat atop the DFS salary list. But, given that Adams will be catching passes from Jordan Love, I am surprised to see him still in his current slot.
Outlook On Adams
From all indications, Davante Adams should be set to return to action, after testing positive for COVID 19. Without their top receiver, the Packers managed to knock off the previously undefeated Arizona Cardinals. However, without Adams, the Packer’s offense shifted to a game plan more focused on running the ball.
Given that the team followed this blueprint to pick up a tough road victory in Arizona, I expect to see more of the same on Sunday vs. the Chiefs. Head coach/play-caller Matt Lafluer has undoubtedly played a role in the career resurgence of Aaron Rodgers. He has assisted in this process by bringing new life to an offense previously put in place by Mike McCarthy.
However, the connection between Rodgers and Davante Adams spans from before the hiring of Lafluer. Many of the duo’s big plays come from going off script and seemingly always being on the same page. Although Jordan Love is now in his second year in the NFL, there is little reason to believe he will replicate the performance of the reigning MVP.
Even though Kansas City comes into this game with a heavily criticized defense unit, in terms of DFS, their secondary has performed near the league average. So far, wide receivers are averaging 23 fantasy points/game against KC, 16h in the NFL. When narrowing in on “number one” wideouts, they improve to 13th.
Outlook On Hill
Heading into week nine, the storyline surrounding the Kansas City Chiefs is, what is wrong with Patrick Mahomes and the KC offense? While no one doubts the talent of the former MVP, his waning production and rising interception total have Chiefs fans concerned. Somehow, this has not made much of an impact on the DFS production of Tyreke Hill.
This season, Hill is on pace for his best season in fantasy points per game (22.2). Despite his team’s underwhelming performance vs. the Giants, the Chief’s top wideout was 4th in week nine receiver fantasy points. Finishing with 27.4 points on 18 targets, a season-high.
The fact that Mahomes threw to his receiver 18 times in one game comes as no surprise as Hill is the NFL’s leading receiver in targets and ranks 8th in team target share (28%). Compared to previous years, other parts of Kansas City’s offense have slowed down. This is not the case with Mahomes and Hill as the receiver has 64 catches for 735 yards.
In week nine, the Chiefs face a Packers defense that has somehow managed to string together a good stretch of games. This comes as a surprise given they are playing without one of the NFL’s top cornerbacks, Jaire Alexander. Through eight games, Green Bay has allowed the 8th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.
It should be noted the Packers have yet to face a receiver on the level of Tyreke Hill. The closest comparable matchup came when they allowed 159 yards and a touchdown to Ja’Marr Chase.
If you are looking to choose between Davante Adams and Tyreke Hill, I recommend taking Hill. Not only will he save you DFS capital, I see him being in line for a much better game than his counterpart.
Brandin Cooks (FanDuel $6800) vs (Courtland Sutton FanDuel $6700)
If you are looking to fill out your lineup with “value” receivers. I would consider looking just outside the top 10 in DFS salary, at Brandin Cooks and/or Courtland Sutton.
Outlook On Cooks
This season, Brandin Cooks has been one of the few bright spots on a 1-7 Texans team. As the trade deadline came and went, it was surprising to see Houston hang on to the veteran receiver as they are in the midst of a full-on rebuild. But, given that remains with the same team, it is much easier to project his week nine fantasy impact.
After this Sunday’s game vs. Miami, I expect that NFL teams looking into trading for Brandin Cooks will regret not being able to get a deal done. Cooks will be working against a Dolphins secondary ranked 31st in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.
On average, their opponent’s number one wide receiver averages 84 yards receiving on 8 catches. Despite playing in an offense ranked 26th in pass plays per game, Brandin Cooks is ranked 4th in the NFL in receptions and 10th in overall receiving yards. A big reason for this is his 29.2% target share. 6th best among wide receivers.
At this point, we can count on the fact that when Davis Mills drops back to throw he will be looking for Cooks. However, the big question surrounding Cooks’ fantasy outlook is whether or not he will find the endzone. Because the Texans struggle so badly on offense, there has simply not been enough red zone opportunities to go around.
But, if Cooks is ever going to have a game where he puts it all together, it will be this week vs. Miami. At just $6800, I’m willing to take that chance.
Outlook On Sutton
Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton is similar to Cooks. He is a highly productive receiver playing on a mediocre offense. Playing on the 18th rated offense in pass plays per game, Sutton is receiving 23% of the targets.
This attention has led to a yardage output of 579 yards. If he continues with this pace, he could be on his way to setting a new career-high in both yardage and receptions. The issue with Sutton as a DFS option has been his lack of touchdowns (2).
In other metrics, the Broncos receiver profiles very well. Through eight games he leads the NFL in both air yards and deep targets. Despite his team being just an average unit in red zone opportunities/game, Sutton has 7 targets near the opponent’s end zone.
This week, Courtland Sutton faces off vs. a Cowboys secondary giving up 26 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the 7th most in the NFL. On any play vs. any opponent, Sutton has the ability to get behind the defense for a big play. I expect him to have at least 1-2 deep receptions vs Dallas. If he breaks one of them off for a touchdown, he provides instant value at $6700.
In tournament play, I will be looking to roster both Brandin Cooks and Courtland Sutton. I do not recommend pairing them with their quarterbacks in a stack situation. If you have to make a choice on one or the other, I would role with Sutton. I simply have more faith in Teddy Bridgewater than in Davis Mills.