NFL Week 8 Ownership Analysis
- Josh Allen was the most expensive DFS option and the top owned QB in both tournament (12.42%) and cash games (18.65%).
- Carson Wentz was the second most owned QB (8.65%)
- Justin Herbert finished the lowest point total (15.82) among the top 5 owned quarterbacks.
- Tom Brady scored 31.2 points and was owned in just 5% of contests.
Josh Allen: FanDuel ($9000)
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen makes his second straight appearance as the most expensive fantasy quarterback. In both weeks, he has rewarded DFS owners, finishing first among QB’s in fantasy points.
So far, he has been the top-scoring quarterback three times. And, has four finishes in the top five.
As expected, Allen did not have eye-popping numbers throwing the ball, finishing with 249 yards on 42 attempts. A big chunk of his fantasy output came from his ability to escape the pocket. Against Miami, he ran for 55 yards and a touchdown, making up for a mediocre game through the air.
His week eight performance was the second time this year rushing for over 50 yards. In all but two games, he finished with at least 30 yards on the ground. Allen’s willingness to scramble provides a safety net for DFS players worried about his high price tag.
This week, the Bills have another favorable matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. On the season, Jacksonville’s defense is giving up 20.67 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. 7th most in the NFL.
The Jaguar’s defensive unit, even made Geno Smith look like a capable NFL quarterback, as he finished with 195 yards and 2 touchdowns. In the previous week, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 329 yards.
In week nine, I expect Josh Allen to once again be the top-owned quarterback. When placing tournament lineups, this is usually my queue to find another option. However, in cash game formats, I have no problem paying up for the Bills quarterback.
Even though Buffalo is likely to run away with this game, Allen has shown he doesn’t need a lot of passing yards to have a big fantasy output. This year he is the 4th rated quarterback in red-zone passing attempts, a place I expect the Bills offense to visit regularly.
Jalen Hurts: FanDuel ($7800)
Entering week nine, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is the 7th most expensive quarterback on FanDuel. In recent weeks, Hurts was consistently among the top three quarterbacks in DFS salary. This high cost was backed by consistent production. Before his 11.2 point performance against Detroit, Hurts lowest DFS rank was 10th.
Because he is coming off a low-scoring game and facing the Charger’s defense, I expect DFS contestants to overlook Jalen Hurts’ body of work.
No one will mistake the Eagles quarterback as a great passing quarterback but in most games, his ability to pick up points with his legs assures at least a top 10 performance.
Even in last week’s game vs. Detroit, Hurts finished with 71 yards rushing. If one or two of the touchdowns had gone in his direction instead of running backs Boston Scott (2) or Jordan Howard (2), he would have finished with a respectable DFS performance.
Because they were playing with such a substantial lead, the Eagles threw the ball a season-low, 14 times. In week nine, I don’t expect this to be an issue as they take on the LA Chargers.
Most fantasy contestants will look at this matchup and pass over Jalen Hurts. So far this season, the Chargers are giving up just 14 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. However, most of their opponents haven’t come into the game with a quarterback looking to run the ball.
In this game, I am expecting the Chargers to pick up an early lead. This situation would actually benefit the fantasy outlook of Hurts as the defense should loosen up, allowing him to pick up yards on the ground and underneath passes.
Out of the QB’s in the 5-10 range in terms of DFS salary, I recommend rolling with Jalen Hurts. Dak Prescott figures to make his return to action but plays in an offense increasingly becoming more reliant on the run. The last we saw from Kyler Murray, he was hobbling off the field in a loss to the Packers. And Joe Burrow has a tough matchup with the Browns defense.
Tua Tagovailoa: FanDuel ($7,300)
One of my favorite value plays at the quarterback position is Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. After making his return to action in week six, Tagovailoa has averaged 22.3 fantasy points per game. In week seven vs. the Falcons, he was the NFL’s top-scoring DFS quarterback.
In his last game against the Bills, Tagovailoa finished with 205 yards passing. Although he failed to throw for a touchdown, he was able to run one in, boosting his fantasy output to 16.2 points. 14th in the NFL.
Before his sub-performance vs. Buffalo, Tagovailoa benefited from facing the Jaguars and Falcons defensive units. Given that the Dolphins offense has another favorable matchup, Tua Tagovailoa could be in line for a top-five DFS performance.
So far, Houston is allowing 20.44 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. 8th most in the NFL. When looking at the QB’s sitting directly above Tagovailoa, no one else’s matchup jumps off the page. A case could be made for Raiders quarterback Deek Carr, but I have no idea what to expect from a team rocked by issue after issue.
In week nine, when looking for a DFS low-cost/tournament quarterback, I recommend taking Tua Tagovailoa and his matchup with the Texans.
Take A Flyer On A Backup?
With news breaking that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will miss Sunday’s vs. the Chiefs after contracting COVID 19, Green Bay will turn to Jordan Love. Right now, rostering Love will cost $6,000 in DFS capital. Not a bad price to pay for a quarterback facing the 30th ranked defense in fantasy points allowed.
Making his first start as a New Orleans Saint, quarterback Trevor Siemian enters the game vs. Atlanta with a DFS Salary of $7000. Even with a favorable matchup against the Falcons, I view this as too much to pay for Siemian. The Saints offense was already a group focused on getting the ball to Alvin Kamara. Having a backup quarterback thrust into the starting role should only magnify this strategy.