NFL Week 8: Profitable Prop Bets

October 29, 2021

335

NFL Week 7 Prop Bet Recap

Last week’s prop bet recommendations lived up their title of being “profitable”, going 3-0. Both Lamar Jackson and Matt Ryan surpassed their passing yard lines while Patrick Mahomes didn’t even come close to his prop of 323.5 yards.

Sam Darnold Under 240.5 Passing Yards

Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold has a passing yard over-under line of 240.5. After his hot start to the season, Darnold’s production has come to a screeching halt. This drop-off in play culminated in being benched vs the New York Giants.

Even though the Panthers are pushing the narrative that they are committed to him as their quarterback. A midseason benching and constant rumors about trading for Deshaun Watson can’t be reassuring for Darnold.

In two of his past three games, Sam Darnold has failed to surpass 200-yards through the air. Since week four vs Dallas, nearly every one of his statistics has plummeted. The only number that continues to rise is his interception total as he has now thrown a pick in four straight games.

The Carolina Panthers offense is ranked 12th in the NFL in pass plays per game. Darnold himself has attempted the 5th most throws among quarterbacks. Even with sufficient opportunities, the Panthers QB is only ranked 20th overall passing yards.

Through seven games, Darnold has surpassed this week’s line in 57% percent of his contests. However, the last time he did so was in week four. On average, he throws for 240 yards per game. But this number is inflated by early-season performances vs. teams like the Jets and Texans.

In week eight, the Panthers will clash with their NFC South rival, the Atlanta Falcons. So far, Atlanta’s defense is giving up 250 yards per contest, 19th in the NFL. When grouping teams similar to the Falcons secondary, an average quarterback is expected to throw for 238 yards. Right in line with Darnold’s line of 240.5.

By taking Sam Darnold on the under, I am essentially betting that he will perform like the below-average quarterback that he is. Betting on a player to just be themself sounds like a winning bet to me.

Player	This Weeks Line	Over%	Passing Yards In Average Game	Average Game Over%	Passing Yards In Great Game	Great Game Over%	Passing Yards In Bad Game	Bad Game Over%	+- Projected Yards
Sam Darnold	240.5	57.0	240.571429	57.0	302.0	29.0	201.0	71.0	-8.47619

Sam Darnold Cumulative Stats

Joe Burrow Over 261.5 Passing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has an over-under passing yard line of 260.5. Through seven games, Burrow has surpassed this number in 71% of his contests. The last time he failed to throw for at least 260 yards came in week three vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Last week vs Baltimore, Burrow had the best game of his career, throwing for 416 yards and three touchdowns. The second-year quarterback had eight passes over 20 yards, including an 82-yard touchdown pass to Ja’Marr Chase.

On the season, Burrow has 1956 yards with an average yard per attempt total of 9.2, second in the NFL. Amazingly, he has racked up these numbers in the 28th ranked offense in pass plays per game.

In week eight, the Bengals face a Jets defense ranked 25th in passing yards allowed (275 per game). The reason, Burrow has a line 19 yards below his own average and 10 yards fewer than what New York usually allows, is the belief that this game gets out of hand early.

Although this should be a real concern as the Jets are down to back up quarterback Mike White, the Bengals have played with substantial leads in their past two games without limiting Burrow’s opportunities.

In a 41-17 win over the Ravens, the Bengals threw the ball 38 times, tied for their highest attempt total of the season. What I see in Cincinnati is a team that has found its offensive identity. In his return from a torn ACL, there was legitimate concern about putting too much on their star quarterback. These worries are long gone and Burrow has found his groove.

This week, I am expecting another big game from Joe Burrow and the Bengals. I will be taking him to surpass his line of 260.5.

Player	This Weeks Line	Over%	Passing Yards In Average Game	Average Game Over%	Passing Yards In Great Game	Great Game Over%	Passing Yards In Bad Game	Bad Game Over%	+- Projected Yards
Joe Burrow	260.5	71.0	279.428571	43.0	294.0	29.0	250.0	71.0	35.952381

Joe Burrow Cumulative Stats

Jameis Winston Under 255.5 Passing Yards

New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston has a passing yard over-under line of 255.5. Through six games, he has gone over this number in just 17% of his contests. When taking into account the quality of his opponent’s defense, Winston is averaging 52 passing yards per game below expectation.

Comparing this week’s line to his 2021 range of outcomes, taking Winston on the over would be betting that he is set to have a “great game” relative to his other outings.

Since starting the season with three straight games below 200 yards passing, Winston has rattled off three in a row on the positive side of that number. His best game came vs. Washington where he threw for 279 yards on 20 attempts.

The Saints offense is ranked 31st in the NFL in pass plays per game. Winston himself is the 29th ranked QB in terms of attempts and 28th in passing yards.

This week he matches up with a Tampa Bay secondary allowing 264 yards per game, 23rd in the NFL. However, most of this damage came at the beginning of the season. In their past two games vs. the Eagles and Bears, the defense has given up just 115 and 184 yards, respectively.

In week eight, I see the Saints trying to slow the game down with the goal of keeping Tom Brady off the field. This means we should see a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara on the ground. There is no way Sean Payton and the New Orleans coaching staff want Winston getting in a shoot-out with Brady and Bucs.

For these reasons, I recommend taking Jameis Winston to go under his line of 255.5 passing yards.