NFL Week 7 Ownership Recap
- Matthew Stafford was last weeks top owned quarterback. He was owned in 13% of DFS tournament lineups.
- Joe Burrow Was owned in just 1.36% of DFS lineups. His 30.64 points made him the top scorer in main slate games.
- Lamar Jackson saw the biggest split between contest types. He was owned in 19% of H2H contests vs 10.786% of tournament lineups.
- Tua Tagovailoa had the third most fantasy points among main slate quarterbacks (28.54)
Josh Allen (Fanduel $8800)
Coming off a bye, Josh Allen enters his matchup with Miami as this week’s most expensive DFS quarterback. In his two most recent outings, Allen has performed well for fantasy owners. Going back to week five vs. the Chiefs, he was the NFL’s 4th most productive fantasy quarterback with 36.5 points. In his 6th game of the season, his 29.7 point performance was good for first among QBs.
Deciding whether to pay up for the top quarterback is a two-fold decision. First, I try to get a sense of the player’s likelihood to make me look foolish. In other words, will they be a bust?
In the case of Josh Allen, I have some serious hesitations. My reluctance to roster the Bills quarterback doesn’t come from questioning his ability, rather I am afraid this game could play out like his week two performance against Miami.
So far, Allen has three games in which he failed to crack the top five in DFS production, two of them came in blowout wins.
In the team’s first matchup with the Dolphins, Allen finished 17/33 for just 179 yards. Because he threw for two touchdowns, he was able to salvage 17.7 fantasy points, 20th among quarterbacks. Against the Houston Texans, he finished 13th in DFS points (quarterbacks), as the Bills won 40-0.
On average, Josh Allen throws the ball 38.2 times per game, 16th in the NFL. In his games vs Miami and Houston, he attempted 33 and 29 passes, both below his season average. When the Bills are involved in closer games, Allen’s passing attempts jump into the upper 40’s or even surpass 50.
Even though Josh Allen has an outstanding matchup against a Dolphins defense, the Bills are likely to jump ahead early and move to a scaled-back offensive game plan. As the most expensive quarterback, there is too great of a risk that he fails to crack the top 10 in QB fantasy points.
Jalen Hurts (Fanduel $8400)
So far this season, there hasn’t been a more consistent DFS quarterback than Jalen Hurts. This might come as a bit of a surprise, given Hurts’ highly-publicized struggles with throwing the ball. However, the Eagles quarterback has yet to have a week where he finished outside the top 10 in DFS production.
Through seven games, contestants who have rostered Hurts have been gifted with consistent +20 fantasy point performances. Even when he threw for just 115 yards vs. Tampa Bay, Hurts racked up with 26 points. Fifth most among quarterbacks for that week.
What intrigues me about Jalen Hurts is the untapped fantasy potential as a passer. In his dismal performance against the Buccaneers, Hurts had a respectable 348 “air yards”. Even last week vs. Las Vegas, he had just 236 yards in completed passes on an attempted 416 “air yards”.
If his upside as a passer was capped by limited opportunities, I would steer clear of Jalen Hurts. However, he is 9th among NFL quarterbacks in passing attempts and 8th in deep-ball attempts. Simply put, he has been unable to take advantage of his opportunities.
This week., the Eagles’ offense has one of the best matchups of the week. On average, the Detroit Lions defense gives up 19.94 fantasy points to QB’s. In their two most recent games, they allowed Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow to put 27 fantasy points apiece. This season, a DFS player would be doing well just by rostering quarterbacks facing the Lions.
If you are deciding between Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, I recommend taking Hurts. This could be the week the Eagles quarterback puts it all together as both a passer and runner. Even if he continues to struggle to throw the ball, the consistency he provides with his legs makes him the better choice.
Carson Wentz (Fanduel $7200)
The week 8 main slate of games is tough for DFS players looking for a value quarterback. Many of the cheaper options have tough matchups with opposing defenses. After weighing my options, I have landed on Colts quarterback Carson Wentz as my preferred tournament lineup option.
By rostering Wentz, I am confident that this choice will help my lineup stand out against other players. Looking back to week three, the Colts faced off with the Titans and it wasn’t pretty for Carson Wentz. In the game, he threw for just 194 yards on 37 attempts. His 7.8 fantasy points led to a ranking of 31st among quarterbacks.
Since then, Wentz has put together some quality performances as the team has won 3 out for their past 4 games. In the rain-soaked conditions vs San Francisco, he was still able to put 20.3 fantasy points.
Even though the Titan’s defense is riding high after holding the Chiefs to just 3 points, their season-long body of work suggests they are susceptible to quarterback fantasy production. So far, the unit has allowed 20.6 fantasy points per game, 6th in the NFL.
Recency bias will lead other players to think Carson Wentz has a horrible matchup. But, that’s far from the case. In week five, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence came up with 22.7 points. Jets rookie quarterback Zach Wilson had one of his best fantasy weeks with 18.7 points.
Not to diminish Tennessee’s accomplishment vs. Kansas City, but in my opinion, and likely that of the Chiefs, the KC offense was just as much to blame for their 3 point output. We must remember that just last week Mahomes was the most expensive DFS quarterback. A matchup with the Titans defense should not suddenly become a death sentence for a QB’s fantasy outlook.
The decision to roster Carson Wentz is almost a guarantee to create a variation from other players. Combine that with the lack of other great options, and I feel good about my quarterback selection for DFS tournament contests.
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