The NFL’s Thursday Night slate rebounded in Week 7 with a barnburner between the Cardinals and Saints, as New Orleans quarterback Andy Dalton threw a total of six touchdowns (four to his team, two to the other) in a Saints loss. It’s a game that got the Cardinals back on track, and if you’re looking to get your NCAA and NFL betting on track, be sure to sign up for The Oracle’s Picks today – he’s been crushing it throughout 2022.
To add to your weekend action, here are 10 prop bets that The Professor’s NFL model likes for Week 7. Odds are from DraftKings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
P.J. Walker, CAR, Under 0.5 Pass TDs, -115 (Model Projection: 0.7)
Mike Evans, TB, TD Scorer, +105 (Model Projection: 0.6)
Chris Godwin, TB, TD Scorer, +125 (Model Projection: 0.5)
Carolina turned in a horrendous day on offense in the first game of the post-Matt Rhule era WITH Christian McCaffrey on the team. Were it not for McCaffrey’s contributions, the Panthers might not have cracked 100 yards.
They now get a Tampa Bay team that should be hyper-motivated after last week’s brutal loss to the Steelers. There is a lot of noise surrounding quarterback Tom Brady; if the GOAT isn’t going to get it figured out this week (and all signs are that he still has the physical tools to do so), it’s hard to believe he will get it figured out.
The odds on a P.J. Walker interception are too short to bother with, but there’s solid value on him not to throw a touchdown. I’ll stay away from Tampa’s yardage totals, as there could be a lot of short fields, and take the longer odds on receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to score touchdowns rather than the -155 number on running back Leonard Fournette.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Mahomes, KC, Over 290.5 Pass Yds, +105 (Model Projection: 296), Over 2.5 Pass TDs, +145 (Model Projection: 2.3)
The looming return of 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa complicates this discussion, but while San Francisco could get their best pass rusher back, it might not stop Patrick Mahomes from lighting it up as the Chiefs look to rebound from last week’s loss to the Bills. As good as the 49ers’ defense has been, Mahomes threw for 338 against the Bills and 3 touchdowns against the Buccaneers, showing that he can get it done against the NFL’s best defenses.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers
Austin Ekeler, LAC, Over 60.5 Rushing Yds, -115 (Model Projection: 63.2)
Kenneth Walker III, SEA, Over 67.5 Rushing Yds, -125 (Model Projection: 71.4), TD Scorer, +100 (Model Projection: 0.6)
The Seahawks and Chargers are both looking to rebound after lackluster performances on offense last week, and matchups against each others’ defenses might be the perfect cure.
Kenneth Walker III has shown off outstanding explosiveness early in his rookie season, and now that he has the lead back role in Seattle, he’s a threat to go off for 150+ every week. Walker still has to prove his consistency, but given his ability to pick up big chunks, Walker is the type of back who can swing weekly fantasy slates.
On the other side, Austin Ekeler is the Chargers’ most reliable weapon given the possibility that Seahawks rookie cornerback Tariq Woolen might travel with Mike Williams. Ekeler’s TD scorer odds are short, so I’ll pass on that, and take the over on Ekeler’s rushing yards.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Nick Chubb, CLE, Over 71.5 Rushing Yds, -120 (Model Projection: 79.8)
The New England Patriots managed to hold Nick Chubb’s numbers in check last week, but that was partially a product of Cleveland getting their run-pass ratio upside down. Chubb is likely to get more than 12 carries in this week’s game, and given that last week’s 4.7 yards per carry was a season WORST in a campaign where Chubb is averaging 5.9, it seems likely that Cleveland’s lead back will be up near 100 yards once again.
Atlanta Falcons at Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins, CIN, TD Scorer, +110 (Model Projection: 0.5)
The Bengals have struggled to gain traction in the run game, but Joe Burrow can still sling it, and while lead receiver Ja’Marr Chase will get his targets, he will also draw Atlanta’s star cornerback, A.J. Terrell, who regularly follows number one receivers. Higgins will have a more favorable matchup across from Chase, which sets him up for a potentially big day.
Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.