NFL Week 7: Profitable Prop Bets

NFL Week 7 Profitable Quarterback Prop Bets

NFL Week 7: Profitable Prop Bets

Lamar Jackson (Over 234.5 Passing Yards)

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson enters week 6 with a passing yard over-under line of 234.5. This number is well below his season average of 281 yards per game.

This line is so low, that it sits below what would be considered a “bad game” in his range of outcomes. On the season, he has gone over this total in 67% of his contests.

When accounting for the quality of opposing defenses, Jackson is averaging 36 yards per game above his expected production.

So far, the former MVP has displayed drastic improvement as a passer. Despite his team’s offense ranking 21st in pass plays per game, he has the 10th most passing yards in the NFL.

This season, Jackson has added a whole new dimension to his game. The deep ball. And through six weeks he has made the most of his opportunities. Among NFL quarterbacks, he has thrown for the 7th most air yards and is 4th in completed air yards. This demonstrates that he is connecting on big plays at a higher rate than most quarterbacks.

The Baltimore Ravens receiving group should have no problem getting open vs a secondary ranked 27th in passing yards to top wideouts. Jackson’s favorite receiver Marquise Brown is being targeted on 23.6% of his team’s passing plays. This attention has led to Brown averaging 81 yards per game. The receiver also ranks 12th in the NFL in completed air yards.

Lamar Jackson’s over-under line of 234.5 is the result of the fear that his early-season production was not sustainable. Luckily, when placing a prop bet, we aren’t concerned about sustainability. He just needs to beat the number this week. In week 7, I will be locking in the over at 234.5 passing yards.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Lamar Jackson234.583.0281.050.0302.033.0237.067.036.166667
Lamar Jackson’s Summarized Passing Profile

Matt Ryan (Over 278.5 Passing Yards)

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has a passing yard over-under line of 278.5. Through five games, he has gone over this number in 60% of his contests. Aside from a dismal performance in the season opener, Ryan’s passing yard production has been fairly consistent.

Throughout the season, the veteran quarterback has seen his average yards/reception rise steadily. In his last game vs the Jets, Ryan completed 33 of 45 passes for 342 yards. So far, this was his best game of the season. But I think he has the potential for even better games in the coming weeks.

In the week five contests against New York, Ryan was able to amass 342 yards while only connecting on three +20 yard passes. His longest completion of the game was for 39. These figures are part of the larger narrative of Matt Ryan’s 2021 campaign. Right now, his 6.5 yards per attempt is tied for last in his 14-year career. This season, that number is 29th among NFL quarterbacks.

Throughout his time in Atlanta, Matt Ryan has been a part of some prolific offenses. Through five games, he has performed more like a game manager, ranking 31st in deep ball attempts at 2.4 per game. Even more puzzling is the fact that Atlanta ranks second in pass plays per game. It is for this reason that I think there is hope for Matt Ryan moving forward.

At some point, I expect two things to happen for the Atlanta Falcons. First, their offensive philosophy will shift in favor of more downfield passes. Second, Calvin Ridley will be the beneficiary of these opportunities.

This week is a good as any for this prediction to take place as the Falcons take on the Miami Dolphins. Last week, Miami turned their game vs Jacksonville into a confidence builder for Joe Burrow and his team. I suspect Matt Ryan saw this game on his bye week and immediately started planning for a big week seven.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Matt Ryan278.560.0266.460.0297.040.0251.060.013.133333

Patrick Mahomes (323.5)

Often time some of the hardest player props to evaluate are quarterback lines north of 300 yards. Clearly, the line is set so high because the player has a matchup he can exploit for a big game. However, like double-digit point spreads, there is always a voice in my head telling me to take the under.

In the case of Patrick Mahomes and his line of 323.5, I will be listening to that voice and taking him on the under. As a testament to Mahomes’ ability, he has somehow made an over-under line this high a 50/50 shot. Last week vs Washington he surpassed this number with ease, ending the game with 397 passing yards.

However, I am not convinced that the Chief’s offense is completely on track. This season, Mahomes has three games with multiple interceptions and has thrown 11 passes deemed as interceptable, 12th in the NFL.

This week, Mahomes matches up vs a Titans defense ranked 24th in the league in passing yards allowed, giving up 276 yards per game. However, they are slightly better at limiting number one receivers, allowing 68 yards/game to top wideouts.

Even with a favorable matchup, I am taking Mahomes to go under his line of 323.5 because Tennessee will look to limit his opportunities by controlling the ball on offense. This has been the Titans game plan all season and it will be even more of an emphasis vs Kansas City.

On the year, Tennessee is ranked 6th in the NFL in time of possession percentage (53.93%) as they lean heavily on running back Derrick Henry. The Titans star rusher is ranked first among running backs in carries and first in rush yards. Therefore, there is no reason for this team to get in a shootout with Kansas City.

While I have no doubt that Patrick Mahomes will have a good game in week seven, with him likely getting fewer opportunities than normal I like my chances that he doesn’t have a great one.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Patrick Mahomes323.550.0314.550.0340.033.0275.067.088.5

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