NFL Week 7: DFS Quarterback Cheat Sheet

NFL Week 7 DFS Cash Game And Tournament Quarterback Advice And Selections

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NFL Week 7: DFS Quarterback Cheat Sheet

NFL Week 6 Ownership Recap

  • Patrick Mahomes led all quarterbacks with a ownership average of 14.24%
  • Krik Cousins was a great tournament option as he finished with 32 fantasy points and was owned in just 1.13% of tournament contests
  • Derek Carr was another outstanding tournament choice with a total ownership average of .84%

Patrick Mahomes (Fanduel $8800)

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes makes a repeat appearance as this week’s most expensive DFS quarterback. Last week the former MVP rebounded from several sub-standard performances by throwing for 397 yards on 32 completions.

In the game, Mahomes was able to connect on six passes for over 20 yards, including his longest that went for 49. He also added 31 yards rushing to sweeten the pot for DFS owners.

If there is one area of concern in rostering Mahomes, it is his recent trend of throwing interceptions. On the season, he already has three games with multiple picks. Given his gunslinging mentality, this could continue to be a problem.

This week, if you decide to pay up for Mahomes, you should feel good about his matchup vs Tennessee. In three of their six games, the defense faced what I consider to be below-average quarterbacks in Carson Wentz, Zach Wilson, and Trevor Lawrence. Despite some favorable matchups, the Titans are still ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (22.13).

Although this data point alone is enough of a reason to save your time researching and just take Mahomes, there is even more supporting evidence.

Through six games, the Kansas City Chiefs offense is ranked 4th in passing attempts per game. A majority of these throws have been intended for Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelce. From all indications, there is no reason to believe the Titans can disrupt what Mahomes is trying to accomplish through the air.

For me, the only question I have regarding Patrick Mahomes is whether he makes a valuable tournament contest selection? Based on this season’s ownership results, I expect him to be owned in around 15% of this week’s contests.

So far, the weekly top-owned quarterback has averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game. The highest point production came in week one by Jalen Hurts (28.76). All this to say, rarely does taking the easiest path pay off in a DFS tournament.

This week, I am seeing enough sleeper picks at other positions to feel good about taking Patrick Mahomes in cash games only.

Derek Carr (Fanduel $7400)

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is coming off yet another +300 yard performance. His fourth of the season. After struggling in weeks 4 and 5, Carr only needed 18 completions to finish with 347 yards.

The veteran quarterback was able to gouge the Bronco’s defense for 7 plays over 20 yards, including two touchdowns. His 24.54 fantasy points surpassed Denver’s average quarterback allowance of 14.63 points per game.

One way of knowing that an offense is working on all cylinders is when key contributors are able to play to their strengths.

Last week, the Raiders used Henry Ruggs as their home run threat, as he finished with three catches for 97 yards and a touchdown. Darren Waller functioned exactly as a tight-end should, racking up 59 yards on 5 catches.

This week, Las Vegas takes on an Eagles defense giving up 17 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Given that Derek Carr is not a threat to pick up fantasy points with his legs, most of his production must come through the air.

Through six weeks, Carr and the Raiders offense is ranked 7th in passing attempts, and 2nd in passing yards. Even more impressive is his ability to connect on throws down the field ranking 3rd in air yards and 2nd in completed air yards. This type of efficiency is rarely found in the NFL as most quarterbacks take a dip in completion percentage with added attempts.

Even though Derek Carr doesn’t have an ideal matchup vs the Eagles, when scouting for DFS value quarterbacks I prefer taking players who won’t be “game planned” out of production.

Nothing is worse than watching your selection become a victim of a coach’s desire to play old-school football. With Derek Carr, I know he will get at least 30-35 opportunities to get me points. And with weapons like Henry Ruggs and Darren Waller, I like my chances for the pick to pay off.

Taylor Heinicke (Fanduel $6900)

My choice for this week’s value play of the week is Taylor Heinicke. The Washington Football team quarterback should be off everyone’s radar as last week he threw for just 182 yards against a bad Chiefs defense.

However, there is reason to believe this was a fluke performance as he finished with a respectable completion percentage of 61.5%. Where Heinicke fell short is connecting on passes down the field. Because he only completed one pass over 20 yards, he ended the game with 4.7 yards per completion, a season-low.

Instead of pushing the ball down the field, last week Heinicke opted for dump-off passes to his running backs. His favorite target and leading receiver Terry McLaurin finished with just 4 receptions for 28 yards.

This week, I expect Heinicke and McLaurin back on track against a Packers secondary in shambles.

Without top cornerback, Jaire Alexander, the Green Bay Packers rattled off two straight wins but have some major holes in the secondary. Last week it only took one drive for Issac Yiadom to find himself on the bench. In his place, the unit ran with Rasual Douglas who had only been with the team for a week.

Before Alexander’s injury, opposing quarterbacks made a habit of targeting rookie Erick Stokes. But, now that he’s the unit’s top option, opponents are taking advantage of even better matchups.

Facing a secondary with so many moving parts, I believe Washington’s coaching staff will spend their week figuring out how to take advantage of the matchup.

When looking for a budget DFS quarterback, all you can ask for is to have at least one solid reason for why they will pay off big. In the case of Taylor Heinicke, he has arguably the best reason, an outstanding matchup.

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