The NFL week kicked off with yet another “thriller” as Washington beat Chicago 12-7 Thursday Night, but while the game was once again dull, The Oracle had the under on WSH-CHI, continuing a dominant season. Be sure to sign up for The Oracle’s Picks today; then dive into our NFL prop bets! Odds are from DraftKings.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Matt Ryan, Under 1.5 TD Passes, -130 (Model Projection: 1.2)
Trevor Lawrence remains a mystery box on the offensive side for Jacksonville, but the Jags D turned in another impressive performance in a 13-6 loss to the Texans. Indianapolis should get running back Jonathan Taylor back in the fold, but the debut of the Bernhard Raimann and Matt Pryor as the bookend tackles for the Colts was a disaster, and Josh Allen and Travon Walker should be licking their chops after the Jaguars shut out Matt Ryan and company the first time around.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Eno Benjamin, Over 52.5 Rushing Yards, -130 (Model Projection: 54.8)
Kenneth Walker III, Over 62.5 Rushing Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 68.4)
DK Metcalf, Over 70.5 Receiving Yards, -105 (Model Projection: 73.4)
Tyler Lockett, Over 67.5 Receiving Yards, -115, (Model Projection 70.8)
The Legion of Boom days are a thing of the past: the 2022 Seahawks can’t stop the run worth a lick, and outside of ascending superstar cornerback Tariq Woolen, they aren’t particularly strong in coverage either. That bodes well for Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense, who will have Eno Benjamin taking over lead back duties with James Conner and Darrel Williams both injured. Benjamin, a third-year player with limited experience entering 2022, has flashed on film for the juice he brings as a rusher and receiver; it will be interesting to see how he handles his expanded role, but 15 carries against this Seahawks defense is a good bet to top 52.5 rushing yards.
On Seattle’s side, Kenneth Walker III, a rookie who has shown explosive movement traits in his limited action, will also take over his backfield after Rashaad Penny went down for the season last week. Geno Smith has the Seahawks offense cooking, and with Arizona cornerback Marco Wilson struggling to hold down his side, look for Seattle to continue putting up big yardage and point totals in this one. The Professor likes Walker, Metcalf, and Lockett for their yardage totals; TD Scorers are also worth considering, but Seahawks tight end Will Dissly has accounted for 3 of 9 receiving TDs and 3 of 14 total TDs, so with a 20%+ vulture, I’ll stay away.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints
Joe Mixon, Under 61.5 Rushing Yards, +100 (Model Projection: 55.7)
Bengals running back Joe Mixon has struggled behind a horrendous offensive line, and that should continue on Sunday, as the Bengals face a New Orleans defensive line that is stacked two deep. Mixon is still getting plenty of volume, but he is averaging 3.1 yards per carry, and this is a tough matchup – right tackle La’El Collins has been arguably the worst lineman in the league, and this week, he gets to face players like Cam Jordan and Marcus Davenport, which bodes poorly for Cincinnati’s offense.
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams
Allen Robinson, Under 33.5 Receiving Yards, -125 (Model Projection: 20.2)
The Allen Robinson signing has been an epic disaster in Los Angeles. Robinson can’t run anymore, and he has struggled to establish any sort of rapport with quarterback Matthew Stafford. The Rams force-fed Robinson the ball in Week 2, but that is the only game this season that the former Jags and Bears star has topped 23 yards this season. Robinson is still getting some looks, but he had 12 yards last week and 7 the week before, and the Rams have too many issues to cater to an aging veteran who appears unable to help them.
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
Breece Hall, Over 60.5 Rushing Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 67.8)
There are many players on the Jets offense who could benefit from a matchup with a Green Bay defense that has been as bad as any in the NFL this season. Packers defensive coordinator Joe Berry is not the type to try to heat up second-year quarterback Zach Wilson, and given how easily the Giants moved the ball last week, the Jets should be set up for some success, and rookie running back Breece Hall, who has been on fire over the past month, is likely to benefit.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Gabriel Davis, Over 55.5 Receiving Yards, -130 (Model Projection: 61.9)
Gabriel Davis got back on track in a big way last week, registering a 97-yard touchdown against the Steelers on Buffalo’s third offensive play of the day. Davis now gets to face a Chiefs team he posted four touchdowns against in their AFC Playoff matchup; Davis is unlikely to replicate last week’s 97-yarder, but look for him to play a big impact in what could be an AFC barn-burner.
Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.