NFL Week 6: Profitable Prop Bets

NFL Week 6 Profitable Prop Bets

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NFL Week 6- Profitable Prop Bets

Ja’Marr Chase Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (Fanduel -114)

One of my favorite prop bets at the wide receiver position is Cincinnati Bengals receiver, Ja’Marr Chase. Heading into the season, the story surrounding the rookie was the alarming frequency he was dropping the ball. So far, Chase has been able to put those concerns to rest as he has just 2 drops on the season.

It didn’t take long for quarterback Joe Burrow to re-establish his connection with his former LSU teammate. In just five games Ja’Marr Chase has 456 yards receiving. Even more impressive is the fact that the Bengals offense ranks 27th in the NFL in passing plays per game.

Burrow has targeted Chase on 24.6% of his passing attempts, 18th in the league. Normally, a receiver being thrown to as much as Chase makes their living on short/high probability routes. In Cincinnati, their top wideout has managed to turn deep passes into high percentage throws.

This week, Chase figures to spend a lot of time being covered by Lions cornerback Amani Oruwariye. On the season, Oruwariye is allowing 42.5 yards per game through the air.

Heading into the contest, Detroit should be concerned that their top cornerback is giving up 15.5 yards per reception. His tendency to give up chunk yardage plays doesn’t match well with Chase and his ability to beat the defense deep.

My plan is to hammer the over on the Ja’Marr Chase receiving yard prop, while also building a DFS stack with him and Joe Burrow.

Pass TypeCompleteTargetsCompletion PercentageYards
DEEP RIGHT480.500000183
DEEP LEFT450.800000114
SHORT RIGHT460.66666771
SHORT LEFT670.85714346
SHORT MIDDLE590.55555642
Ja’Marr Chase Receiving Breakdown

Trevor Lawrence Over 240.5 Passing Yards (Fanduel -114)

I couldn’t call myself a fan of the NFL if I didn’t have some action on the Jacksonville Jaguars vs Miami Dolphins game in London. With a kickoff of 9:31 AM ET, there is an opportunity to cash in on some winning bets early. One of the wagers being a prop bet on Trevor Lawrence to surpass 240.5 passing yards.

Through five games, Lawrence has gone over this line in 40% of his games. Vegas sportsbooks are anticipating the rookie to have a good game as this week’s number is above his season average of 229.2.

Last week, the Jaguars quarterback threw for 273 yards on 23 completions. In his past two games, Lawrence has completed at least one pass over 50 yards.

In most cases, NFL teams with rookie quarterbacks rank near the bottom of the league in passing attempts. Gameplans are developed to avoiding putting too much on the shoulders of young players.

For Trevor Lawrence, this hasn’t been the case. On the season, he ranks 13th in passing attempts and hasn’t shied away from taking deep shots. So far, he has amassed the 12th most air yards among quarterbacks.

The story with Lawrence is that he has yet to convert on these chances. Despite having a high number of attempted air yards, he only ranks 21st in completed air yards. Some of this can be explained by his team spending so much time playing from behind. When opposing defenses drop into a prevent scheme, it is tough to beat them over the top.

This week, the Jaguars only sit as +3 point underdogs and have a real possibility to pick up their first win. Miami has been one of the league’s most disappointing teams and is coming off a blowout loss to Tampa Bay.

If Jacksonville is able to play from ahead, we could see their offense incorporate more play-action passes, keeping the defense off balance. Because they have spent so much time trailing their opponents, the unit ranks just 20th in play-action attempts.

The Dolphins secondary is ranked 30th in passing yards allowed to number one receivers. This week will be a good opportunity for Lawrence and his number one option, Marvin Jones to connect for a big game. The Jaguars also have Laviska Shenault who is always a threat to go deep.

One of the keys to winning in the NFL is taking advantage of an opponent’s weakness. The Dolphins clearly struggle to defend the pass. Because of this, I am anticipating Trevor Lawrence to blow past his passing yard prop of 240.5, and the Jaguars to win their first game of the season.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Trevor Lawrence240.540.0229.240.0262.040.0207.060.05.466667

Lamar Jackson- Over 234.5 (Fanduel -114)

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has a passing yard over-under line of 234.5. If he were to go under this total, it would be his worst game of the season and well below his season average of 303.8. His current low came in week one vs the Raiders in which he threw for 235 yards.

Since the NFL’s opening weekend, Jackson’s passing yard totals have ascended all the way to a 442-yard performance against the Colts. In week five, the former MVP had five passes go for over 20 yards.

The question is, why is Jackson’s line set so low? Typically quarterback lines are set based on their matchup with an opposing defense.

Through five weeks, the Los Angeles defense is ranked 7th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. They have also been able to limit the yardage of the opponent’s number one receivers, ranking 9th in the league.

The quickest way to disrupt an offense is an effective pass rush. On the season, the Chargers are ranked 16th, averaging two sacks per game. In this week’s contest, I anticipate the Ravens offensive line holding up well as they rank 12th in the NFL in protection rate.

This season, Jackson has taken a big step forward in proving his worth as a passer and I don’t see the Chargers’ defense affecting him as much as his diminished over-under line would suggest.

For a quarterback ranked 1st in completed air yards, 3rd in accuracy rating, and 5th in both passing yards and total air yards, I see no reason for his line to be at just 234.5. To put it another way, there is no way Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, or Aaron Rodgers would have a line set this low.

Although Lamar Jackson is not at the level of these players’ levels as a thrower, it is time he deserves the respect to be elevated over the Teddy Bridgewater and Jared Goffs of the world. But, if the oddsmakers want to keep underestimating the former MVP, I will gladly cash in on some prop bets.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Lamar Jackson234.5100.0303.840.0310.040.0249.060.072.8

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