NFL Week 5 Ownership Takeaways
- Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott led his position group with an ownership average of 11.38%
- In his debut as the 49ers starting quarterback, Trey Lance was owned in 23% of H2H contests
- Tom Brady had the highest differential between tournament and H2H contests (+4.3%)
- Justin Herbert was the week five top performer (45.82). He was owned in just 3.6% of tournament lineups
- Texans quarterback Davis Mills had the highest point/ownership ratio (27.68 points/.03% ownership)
Patrick Mahomes (Fanduel $9,000)
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is this week’s most expensive option on FanDuel. Mahomes is coming off one of his most inefficient performances, going 33/54 for 272 yards. The former MVP also threw for two interceptions.
When a quarterback of Mahomes’ caliber is having issues with turnovers, the team’s offensive line tends to absorb a large portion of the blame. However, this season the Chief’s front five is ranked 8th best in pressures allowed per pass at 21%. Considering Kansas City is 7th in the NFL in total passing attempts, only allowing 7 sacks on the season is an impressive feat.
So far, Patrick Mahomes has been uncharacteristically erratic on his throws. Through five games, the Chiefs quarterback has been off-target on 18.1% of his attempts, 12th in the NFL.
This week, the main reason Mahomes is priced at $9,000 is due to his favorable matchup against the Washington Football Team. Washington’s secondary is struggling to defend their opponent’s top receiver, allowing 70 yards per game to top wideouts.
Last week, Washington cornerback Kendall Fuller had his best game of the season, giving up just one catch for 14 yards. However, I don’t expect a repeat performance, as defending Tyreke Hill is vastly different than Marquez Callaway. Instead, I am looking for Fuller to end up more in line with his season average of allowing 60.25 yards per game.
Washington will also have to account for Travis Kelce and his 369 yards receiving. On the season, the defensive unit is giving up 55 yards per game to opposing tight ends.
Even with Mahomes having what looks to be a good matchup, I recommend taking a pass on the Chiefs quarterback in DFS lineups. I foresee other contestants loading up on Mahomes in anticipation of a bounce-back game. Although regression is a real thing in fantasy sports, I prefer to avoid counting on it when it comes to DFS. Especially at the $9,000 price tag.
Joe Burrow (Fanduel $7,400)
My favorite quarterback option in week five is Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. Although I normally don’t like my DFS choices to be coming off a post-game visit to the hospital, from all indications it sounds like Burrow will be ready to go against Detroit.
In his last game against Green Bay, the Bengals quarterback threw for 281 yards on 38 attempts. Burrow hooked up with his receivers on three passes over 20 yards, including a 70-yard touchdown to Ja’Marr Chase.
Throughout the season, Burrow and Chase have developed into one of the NFL’s most promising WR-QB combinations. As a rookie, Chase is being targeted on 24.6% of his quarterback’s passes. He is ranked 3rd in the league in deep targets (10).
Normally, a wide receivers production breakdown is dominated by short passes, with high completion percentages. So far Ja’Marr chase has been able to turn his chances down the field into explosive and efficient opportunities.
|Pass Type||Complete||Targets||Completion Percentage||Yards|
On the season, the Detroit Lions are ranked 31st in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to number one wideouts. Opponent’s top pass catchers are averaging 122 yards per game through the air.
The Lions have primarily used cornerback Amani Oruwariye to cover the team’s top receivers. If the Lions continue with this plan, I expect Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase to cash in.
In last week’s game against Minnesota, Oruwariye allowed 4 catches for 87 yards. His worst game came against the San Francisco 49ers in which he gave up 97 yards on 5 receptions. This came as the primary defender on Deebo Samuel.
This week one of my favorite DFS options is to stack Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase in what should be a high-scoring game at Ford Field.
Carson Wentz (Fanduel $6700)
In any week six lineup where my intention is to load up on top-end wide receivers and running backs, I will be using Carson Wentz as my value quarterback.
Wentz is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 402 yards on 35 attempts. Although this was an outlier in terms of yardage, the number of dropbacks was right in line with previous games.
The biggest driver behind last week’s spike in production was the fact that the Colts completed 7 passes of over 20 yards. Although one of these big plays came on a 76-yard swing pass to Jonathan Taylor, Wentz was also able to connect with Michael Pittman on a 42-yard reception.
One encouraging sign for the Colts offense is that despite being ranked 26th in the NFL in air yards, Carson Wentz has been efficient with his opportunities, ranking 17th in completed air yards.
In the season’s first two games, Wentz offered some value as a rusher, having games of 23 and 37 yards, respectively. However, since suffering an ankle injury, this part of his repertoire has disappeared.
Through five weeks, the Houston Texans defense is ranked 25th in the NFL in yards allowed to number one wide receivers. If the Colts are able to get Michael Pitman matched up on Desmond King, the wideout should be in line for a big game. In King’s last two outings, he has given up 100 and 70 yards, respectively.
In week five, rolling with Carson Wentz is taking a gamble on the Colts’ game plan. If it revolves around taking advantage of a struggling Texans secondary, Wentz could finish with 2-3 touchdowns and approach 300 yards passing. At $6700, he would be one of the best values of the week.