NFL Week 5 DFS: Quarterback Cheat Sheet

NFL Week 5 DFS Top Quarterback Options

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NFL Week 5 DFS- Quarterback Cheat Sheet

Heading into week five of the NFL season, we have already witnessed nearly a quarter of this year’s regular-season games. For those off to poor starts in fantasy leagues and DFS contests, the excuse of “limited sample size” is over, and it’s time to start winning and making some money.

The quarterback position is easily the most important to NFL team success, and we should think no different when building our DFS lineups. Here is this week’s breakdown of which quarterbacks to take and avoid in week five.

Pay Up For Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray – $8500 Fanduel

Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray comes in at this week’s most expensive quarterback on Fanduel. At first glance, Murray doesn’t stand out as being in line for a huge game as he is facing a 49ers defense ranked 10th passing yards allowed (218). Fanduel’s over-under total of 50.5 isn’t something that jumps off the page to suggest a shootout in the desert.

When looking at Murray’s range of outcomes, you can’t help but be impressed with his combination of high floor, high upside production. Through four games, the Cardinals quarterback is outperforming his expected passing yard total by 50 yards. Against the LA Rams, he proved he is also able to pick up some fantasy points with his legs, rushing for 39 yards out of the pocket.

So far, the San Francisco 49ers defense has done a good job limiting opponent’s number one receiving option. This season, number one wideouts are projected to put up just 8 fantasy points per game. For Murray, this shouldn’t be a big problem as he has done a good job distributing his targets. Deandre Hopkins and A.J. Green are both being thrown to 20% of the time. Chase Edmonds is not far behind at 18%.

Aside from his ability to spread the ball around, there are multiple factors making Murray a “bust-proof” option. The big question when evaluating players off to hot starts, is whether it’s sustainable? For Murray, the answer is yes. Despite his big yardage totals, he only has 2 passes completed over 40 yards. Instead, he has carved up defenses with short and mid-range passes. Something much more likely to continue. And when he does go deep, Murray isn’t locked on one player. Hopkins, Green, and Christian Kirk all have 6 “deep” targets.

In DFS cash games, I will look to have Kyler Murray on my roster. Despite the high price mark, I am willing to pay up for his combination of consistency and upside.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Kyler Murray275.575.0318.2525.0324.025.0287.075.050.916667

Week 5 Value Pick: Taylor Heinicke

Taylor Heinicke – $7300 Fanduel

My sleeper pick for the week five slate is Washington Football quarterback, Taylor Heinicke. At just $7300, he has the potential to provide great value, allowing me to pay up for a top wide receiver or running back. Heinicke also makes a great choice when entering large DFS contest tournaments as other players are likely to avoid players from this game. Fanduel SportsBook has the over-under total between Washington and New Orleans set at 44.5. One of the lower totals of week five.

When playing DFS it is always important to have a pulse on any narratives or pre-conceived notions surrounding a team. In recent seasons, the New Orleans Saints have come to be thought of as having a dominant defense. However, this year has been up and down for a Saints unit coming off a loss to the New York Giants. Through four games, New Orleans is allowing 283 yards through the air, 26th in the league. This is especially troubling considering one of those games came against the Packers where they held the MVP to just 133 yards passing. Because of this reputation, DFS contestants might make the mistake of overlooking Taylor Heinicke, making him the sleeper pick of the week.

Heinicke enters week five with a passing yard line of 260.5. Against the Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants, he threw for 290 and 336 yards, respectively. Both of these defense’s profile similarity to the Saints. When evaluating DFS quarterbacks it is always important to identify players with the ability to escape the pocket and grab some easy yardage. Heinicke is coming off a game in which he ran for 43 yards. With such quarterbacks, there is always a chance they take it in themselves.

The main reason I will be taking Taylor Heinicke as my DFS contest quarterback is his connection with wide receiver Terry McLaurin. In Washington, McLaurin is the clear number one option and is being targeted all across the field. For the most part, Heinicke and McLaurin rely on short to intermediate throws to the outside, accounting for 52% of their passes. These types of throws are tough for defenses to outright stop, giving this duo a high floor. However, Heinicke isn’t afraid to take a look deep, doing so on over 25% of his targets to McLaurin.

Through four weeks, the Washington receiver ranks 7th in the league with a 31% target share. This has led to 354 yards receiving, including two +100 yard performances. This week, McLaurin has an outstanding matchup against a Saints defense allowing number one receivers to average 14 fantasy points above expectation. My week five NFL model projects McLaurin to finish the game 96 yards receiving on 6 catches and a touchdown.

In DFS tournament-style contests I will be taking a Washington Football Team stack of Taylor Heinicke and Terry Mclaurin. I see most DFS players looking past this game as a source of DFS points, creating a great opportunity for variance.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Taylor Heinicke260.550.0240.050.0295.025.0203.075.023.333333

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