NFL Week 5 Betting Guide: Profitable Props

NFL Week 5 Profitable Prop Betting Opportunites


NFL Week 5 Quarterback Props

Sam Darnold Over 265.5 Passing Yards

Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold enters week five with a passing yard line of 266.5. In each of his four games as the Panthers starter, Darnold has surpassed this mark. Yet, his over-under line sits below his season average of 297.5 passing yards. It appears that the oddsmakers are not yet sold on his hot start to the season. When taking into account the quality of his opponents, Darnold has thrown for 29 yards above expectation.

This week, the Panthers received good news on a possible return of Christian McCaffrey. Even without their running back, against the Cowboys, Sam Darnold threw for his third straight +300 yard game. If McCaffrey can give it a go, I am even more confident in Darnold’s chances to go over his passing total.

Another reason I expect Carolina to have a big game through the air is the Philadelphia Eagles defense ranks 28th in fantasy points allowed to number one receivers. Darnold’s top wide-out D.J. Moore is coming off an 8 catch 113-yard performance against the Cowboys. He has also surpassed 100 yards in two straight contests and received double-digit targets in his past three.

When making my prop bets for the week, I will be taking Sam Darnold to go over 265.5 passing yards. The combination of Darnold and D.J. Moore is also on my shortlist for a QB/WR tournament stack.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Sam Darnold266.5100.0297.2575.0304.025.0299.075.029.666667

Tom Brady Over 308.5 Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady has a passing yard line of 308.5. Through four weeks, Brady is ranked second in the NFL with 339 yards per game. Last week, against his former team, the veteran quarterback had his lowest output of the season with 269 yards. This regression was not for a lack of opportunity, as Brady dropped back to pass 43 times. There is little reason to expect he will have another game with just a 51% completion percentage.

With prolific offensive teams, it is always important to ask whether the production is sustainable? In the case of Brady and the Buccaneers, so far they have been able to put up big numbers with just one catch over 40 yards. Instead, they average nearly 6 receptions/game of over 20 yards. Hooking up on these routes is much more likely to continue instead of banking on home runs.

The Buccaneer receiving corps has one of the NFL’s best matchups of the week. In four games, the Dolphins secondary is ranked 30th in fantasy points allowed to number one receivers. Their opponent’s top pass catchers are averaging nearly 133 yards per game and are +6 in expected fantasy output. Miami will use cornerback Xavien Howard against Brady’s top target, Mike Evans. In 2021, Howard is allowing 35.7 yards per game, good for 118th among NFL cornerbacks. Even if he is able to slow down Evans, Tampa Bay’s wide receiver talent doesn’t drop off, as Chris Godwin actually leads the team with 296 yards receiving.

In week five, don’t listen to the voice telling you that Tom Brady is going to come back down to earth. Instead, place a prop bet on the over and take the profits.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Tom Brady308.550.0339.050.0384.025.0275.075.092.0

Aaron Rodgers 260.5 Passing Yards

Davante Adams Over 88.5 Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a week five passing yard line of 260.5. In four games, the NFL MVP has gone over this number just once and is 33 yards short of his expected output (opponent-adjusted). This season, Rodgers has yet to throw for over 300 yards and has two games with a completion percentage below 60%. As the season has progressed, so has Rodgers’ pass attempts. Last week, the Packers threw the ball a season-high 36 times.

In Green Bay, the wide receiver room is dominated Davante Adams. Through four weeks, Adams ranks second in the NFL with a target share percentage of 35.7%. What makes the veteran wideout so difficult to defend is his ability to get open across all levels of the defense. As a deep threat, Adams ranks 5th in the league in air yards but is only 51st in average target distance. This means, that Rodgers and Adams are also racking up targets on underneath routes. The duo has been extremely efficient on short throws to the right side of the field, completing 14 of 16 passes for 107 yards.

My big concern with taking Aaron Rodgers to go over 260.5 yards passing is that Green Bay is without a clear number two receiver. Even with Davante Adams frequently facing double coverage, Rodgers will force the ball to his top target. This is a testament to Adams’s ability to beat coverage but limits the quarterback’s passing yard upside.

Last week, longtime Packer, Randall Cobb was able to turn back the clock with a 5 catch 69-yard performance. If Cobb or another receiver emerges as a capable option out of the slot, the attention opposing teams give to Adams will create some easy opportunities for their quarterback.

In this matchup, I am taking Aaron Rodgers to continue his trend over going under his passing total. However, I am betting on Rodgers to continue feeding Davante Adams. This week, I like Adams to go over 88.5 receiving yards.

PlayerThis Weeks LineOver%Passing Yards In Average GameAverage Game Over%Passing Yards In Great GameGreat Game Over%Passing Yards In Bad GameBad Game Over%+- Projected Yards
Aaron Rodgers260.525.0224.2575.0256.025.0236.075.0-33.583333

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