Week four of the NFL season begins with an intriguing matchup of young quarterbacks. Jaguars rookie, Trevor Lawrence is off to a rough start and will be making his first NFL appearance in a primetime slot. In his return from a torn ACL, quarterback Joe Burrows has the Bengals at a surprising 2-1 record with a great opportunity to add another win.
In addition to participating in the traditional betting/DFS options, in Thursday’s night game I will continue entering contests on both UnderDog Fantasy and PrizePicks. Through three weeks of action, I have 1.5x my initial investment on PrizePicks and tripled my money on UnderDog Fantasy. On these platforms, Thursday nights have been some of my more profitable contests.
Quarterback
One of my favorite tools to use when making player prop selections is using the sportsbooks to compare lines and gauge public sentiment. Pinnacle SportsBook is known to attract “sharp” bettors and often leads the market in line movement. Pinnacle has Joe Burrow’s passing total several yards lower than both of our alternative DFS platforms.
PrizePicks Joe Burrow (249.5 Passing Yards)
UnderDog Fantasy (247.5 Passing Yards)
| Book | Type | Name | Price | Odds | No Juice Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | Passing Yards | Joe Burrow Over 245.5 | -115 | 53.488372 | 0.5 |
| Pinnacle | Passing Yards | Joe Burrow Under 245.5 | -115 | 53.488372 | 0.5 |
In his comeback campaign, Burrow is ranked 8th among quarterbacks in on-target throws (82%) and has been pressured slightly above the league average (24.1%). After starting the season with a 261-yard performance against Minnesota, Burrow’s passing totals have dropped each week. However, he is facing a Jaguars defense ranked 5th in passing yards allowed and second in net yards allowed per attempt.
In this instance, I will use the difference in contest structures between the platforms to hedge my bet on Joe Burrow. PrizePicks allows users to still earn a profit despite having a wrong entry. A five-player contest with one wrong selection doubles the wager. Therefore, I will take over 247.5 passing yards on UnderDog Fantasy and the under 249.5 on PrizePicks.
PrizePicks Picks Joe Burrow Under 249.5
UnderDo Fantasy Pick Fantasy Joe Burrow Over 247.5
PrizePicks Trevor Lawrence (246.5 Passing Yards)
UnderDog Fantasy (254.5 Passing Yards)
| Book | Type | Name | Price | Odds | No Juice Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | Passing Yards | Trevor Lawrence Over 254.5 | -104 | 50.980392 | 0.477646 |
| Pinnacle | Passing Yards | Trevor Lawrence Under 254.5 | -126 | 55.752212 | 0.522354 |
If Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence hopes to pull off the upset, he will need to significantly improve his play. Through three games, Lawrence leads the league in off-target throw percentage at 30%. This lack of performance can’t be solely placed on his offensive line who have only allowed pressure’s on 21% of his dropbacks, good for 9th best.
If Lawrence is able to put together a good game, there is significant upside as he is not afraid to air it out, ranking 6th in intended air yards/pass. The Bad news for Jacksonville is that I don’t see it happening this week as the Cincinnati defense is ranked 4th in net yards allowed per pass attempt.
Once again I will split my picks between the platforms, taking the over 246.5 on PrizePicks and the under 254.5 on UnderDog Fantasy.
PrizePicks Pick Trevor Lawrence Over 246.5
UnderDog Fantasy Pick Trevor Lawrence Under 254.5
Running Backs
PrizePicks James Robinson 52.5 Rushing Yards
PrizePicks Joe Mixon 83.5 Rushing Yards
UnderDog Fantasy James Robinson +33.5 Rush Yards vs Joe Mixon
| Book | Type | Name | Price | Odds | No Juice Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | Rushing Yards | Joe Mixon Over 86.5 | -114 | 53.271028 | 0.497978 |
| Pinnacle | Rushing Yards | Joe Mixon Under 86.5 | -116 | 53.703704 | 0.502022 |
| Book | Type | Name | Price | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | Rushing Yards | James Robinson Over 52.5 | -114 | 53.271028 |
| FanDuel | Rushing Yards | James Robinson Under 52.5 | -114 | 53.271028 |
Out of all the props in this Thursday night game, I feel the strongest about taking Joe Mixon on the over. Through three weeks, the Bengals have shown a commitment to having a balanced offense and feeding Mixon. So far, the Bengals back is putting up big numbers despite running behind a mediocre offensive line. Heading into week four they rank 22nd in yards before contact per attempt. Luckily, Mixon is adept at breaking tackles as he has the team ranked 4th in the league.
Jaguars running back James Robinson has seen his usage and production rise throughout the first three weeks. Robinson is coming off his best performance with 15 carries and 88 yards. Despite facing a defense allowing just 3.3 yards per attempt. This week, I see the Jaguars trying to take some pressure off Trevor Lawrence by committing to the run and setting up more play-action passes. However, I don’t this being enough as I am looking to take the under on James Robinson rush yards at 52.5.
PrizePicks Pick Joe Mixon Over 83.5
Prize Picks Pick Under 52.5
Wide Receivers
PrizePicks Marvin Jones 62.5 Receiving Yards
PrizePicks Laviska Shenault 41.5 Receiving Yards
PrizePicks Laviska Shenault 41.5 Receiving Yards
PrizePicks D.J. Chark 46.5 Receiving Yards
PrizePicks Tyler Boyd 56.6 Receiving Yards
UnderDog Fantasy Ja’Marr Chase +.5 Receiving Yards vs Marvin Jones
UnderDog Fantasy Marvin Jones 67.5 Receiving Yards
UnderDog Fantasy Laviska Shenault 42.5 Receiving Yards
| Book | Type | Name | Price | Odds | No Juice Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Laviska Shenault Jr. Over 40.5 | -115 | 53.488372 | 0.500000 |
| Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Laviska Shenault Jr. Under 40.5 | -115 | 53.488372 | 0.500000 |
| Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Tyler Boyd Over 59.5 | -114 | 53.271028 | 0.497978 |
| Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Tyler Boyd Under 59.5 | -116 | 53.703704 | 0.502022 |
| Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | DJ Chark Jr. Over 50.5 | -117 | 53.917051 | 0.504045 |
| Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | DJ Chark Jr. Under 50.5 | -113 | 53.051643 | 0.495955 |
| Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Ja\’Marr Chase Over 68.5 | -113 | 53.051643 | 0.495955 |
| Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Ja\’Marr Chase Under 68.5 | -117 | 53.917051 | 0.504045 |
| Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Marvin Jones Jr. Over 66.5 | -117 | 53.917051 | 0.504045 |
| Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Marvin Jones Jr. Under 66.5 | -113 | 53.051643 | 0.495955 |
Rounding out my DFS selections, I am looking to take over on Marvin Jones Jr on PrizePicks. Pinnacle SportsBook is pricing Jones Jr. with a 50% to go over 66.5 receiving yards. Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target should continue to see balls thrown his way in week four.
On UnderDog Fantasy I will continue riding Marvin Jones Jr. in a rival matchup vs Ja’Marr Chase (+.5). Chase appears to be reliant on the big play for his yards. In each of the first three weeks, Chase has a reception of over 30 yards. If Jacksonville’s defense can just limit his longest reception to 20 yards, I see Jones Jr. winning this matchup.
PrizePicks Pick Marvin Jones JR Over 62.5
UnderDog Fantasy Marvin Jones def Ja’Marr Chase
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