Using The Sportsbook Lines
When betting on sports, building a DFS lineup, or navigating life in general, the first key to success is avoiding mistakes. One of the worst mistakes you can make in DFS is loading up on players involved in low-scoring games. The easiest way to avoid doing so is by following the sportsbook’s advice.
Because bookmakers have such a significant monetary interest in setting accurate lines, we can safely use the over-under totals as a benchmark for how games will play out.
Teams To Avoid
- Chicago Bears
- New York Giants
- Indianapolis Colts
- Miami Dolphins
While it is certainly possible to have individuals put up solid performances from these teams, successful wagering is all about stacking the odds in your favor. Loading up on Chicago Bears players is directly opposed to this concept.
Teams To Target
| Away Team | Home Team | Price | O/U | Number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | Philadelphia Eagles | -110 | Over | 54.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals | Los Angeles Rams | -110 | Over | 54.5 |
| Cleveland Browns | Minnesota Vikings | -106 | Over | 53.5 |
| Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers | -106 | Over | 52.5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Chargers | -110 | Over | 52.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | Dallas Cowboys | -110 | Over | 50.5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | New England Patriots | -105 | Over | 49.5 |
| Washington Football Team | Atlanta Falcons | -104 | Over | 48.5 |
| Houston Texans | Buffalo Bills | -110 | Over | 48.0 |
A good strategy is to stick to the games with the highest projected total points. An even better strategy is to dig deeper and target games most likely to go over their totals. Part of a successful DFS tournament play is to differentiate your lineup from the masses. Right off the bat, we can safely assume most contestants will load up on the Chiefs, Cardinals, and Rams.
This doesn’t mean we should avoid these players at all costs. But, the fastest way to move up the leaderboard is rostering players overlooked by everyone who didn’t do their homework.
Week 4 Projections
In week four, I will be looking to take advantage of discrepancies between my model and the sportsbook totals. With most DFS contestants sticking to teams atop the over-under list I will be stacking players from the Raiders, Chargers, and Packers.
| Team 1 Name | Team 1 Points | Team 2 Name | Team 2 Points | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 28.0 | LAC | 30.0 | 58.0 |
| CLE | 28.0 | MIN | 26.0 | 54.0 |
| PIT | 25.0 | GB | 27.0 | 53.0 |
| CAR | 27.0 | DAL | 25.0 | 52.0 |
| PHI | 23.0 | KC | 28.0 | 51.0 |
| SEA | 27.0 | SF | 23.0 | 50.0 |
Public Isn’t Always Right
The following table shows the top-owned DFS players so far this season. However, we can see through sorting players by their Fantasy Point average, only Tyreke Hill appears on both lists. Jared Goff has an ownership average of less than 1% but sits atop the leaderboard in points score. Talk about value.
Top Owned Players
| Player | Ownership Avg | Fpts | Tournament | H2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Cooper Kupp | 29.555 | 35.20 | 26.051 | 47.075 |
| 1 | CeeDee Lamb | 25.610 | 17.40 | 22.636 | 40.450 |
| 2 | Saquon Barkley | 22.800 | 21.40 | 21.076 | 31.450 |
| 3 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 20.130 | 20.90 | 18.444 | 28.560 |
| 4 | Alexander Mattison | 19.870 | 26.10 | 17.182 | 33.310 |
| 5 | Najee Harris | 19.725 | 25.15 | 17.561 | 30.555 |
Top Fantasy Scorers
| Player | Ownership Avg | Fpts | Tournament | H2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Tyreek Hill | 10.480 | 40.100000 | 11.294000 | 6.440000 |
| 1 | Derrick Henry | 9.705 | 36.550000 | 9.622000 | 10.095000 |
| 2 | Cooper Kupp | 29.555 | 35.200000 | 26.051000 | 47.075000 |
| 3 | Jared Goff | 0.190 | 32.920000 | 0.218000 | 0.070000 |
| 4 | Tyler Lockett | 5.965 | 31.900000 | 6.530000 | 3.160000 |
| 5 | Kyler Murray | 8.160 | 31.733333 | 8.463333 | 6.636667 |
Best Tournament Quarterbacks Week 4
Looking back at week three, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, and Justin Herbert were the most heavily owned quarterbacks. This makes sense as each of these players was involved in games with favorable matchups and high point totals from the sportsbooks. This week, I am looking for players who fit the same criteria but are likely being overlooked by the general public.
Aaron Rodgers is coming off an efficient performance against the 49ers. Although, there are questions on the health of his offensive line, the status of T.J.Watt also remains unknown. At $7600, there is significant value in rostering the veteran QB.
In each of their first three games, the Minnesota Vikings have been involved in high-scoring affairs. The over-under line of 53.5 points backs this up. The Browns have also started the season hot offensively. In a close call, I am opting to save the $200 in the salary cap and take Baker Mayfield. Cleveland is no longer a team that sticks to the ground and I see Kirk Cousins as a likely candidate to turn the ball over.
Aaron Rodgers (GB) – $7600
Kirk Cousins (MIN) – $7500
Baker Mayfield (CLE) – $7300
Best Tournament Wide Receivers Week 4
In week three, DFS contestants flocked to Cooper Kupp, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Godwin, and Keenan Allen. All of whom were owned in over 15% of lineups. Because there are significantly more options at the wide receiver position it is much easier to select a unit that stands out.
Just because I am taking Baker Mayfield over Kirk Cousins, doesn’t mean that I don’t want a part of the Vikings offense. In a “game-stack” play, I like Justin Jefferson to put up big points.
Dolphins QB Jacoby Brissett seems to have found a connection with WR Jalen Waddle who racked up 12 catches in week three. Waddle should continue to be targeted in a favorable matchup with Indianapolis.
Justin Jefferson (MIN)- $7800
Marquise Brown (BAL) – $6400
Jalen Waddle (MIA) – $5400
Best Tournament Running Backs Week 4
Last week we saw the return of Saquon Barkley as a top-owned running back as he was included in 21% of tournament lineups. Not far behind were Austin Ekeler and Clyde Edwards-Helaire who were both owned in over 20% of contests. This week can expect a majority of the public to load up on Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara.
Najee Harris (PIT)- $8200
Nick Chubb (CLE) – $8000
The Pittsburgh Steelers are looking for answers after a disappointing loss to the Bengals. One way they will look to pull off the upset in Green Bay is to rely on Najee Harris. The Steelers will try to control the clock and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. This shouldn’t be extremely difficult a the Packers have some major holes defensively.
Selecting Nick Chubb falls in line with stacking players involved in the Browns vs Vikings game. Minnesota no longer has a defense that opponents fear. Coming off a game in which he received 22 carries but failed to find the endzone, I see an opportunity for Chubb to rack up multiple scores.
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