NFL Week 3: Thursday Night Football Betting Cheat Sheet

NFL Week 3- Thursday Night Football Betting Cheat Sheet

Week 3 of the NFL slate kicks off with a matchup between the 2-0 Carolina Panthers and 1-1 Houston Texans. Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold is riding high after an impressive win over NFL South rival, the New Orleans Saints. Backed by a defense allowing a league fewest 10.5 points per game, Darnold has a great opportunity to continue his hot start against a banged-up Texans squad.

The big storyline in Houston is the current state of the quarterback position. Few people expected the Texans to rack up wins this season, but the stability provided by Tyrod Taylor gave fans hope that the 2021 season wouldn’t be completely miserable. In week two these aspirations came to a temporary halt as Taylor is expected to miss at least three weeks with a hamstring injury. In his place, Houston will turn to third-round pick Davis Mills.

Panthers: Metrics To Consider

-Carolina is ranked 3rd in air yards per pass attempt.
-Carolina’s offensive line is ranked 9th in pressures allowed on the quarterback.
-Sam Darnold has been “on target” on 78% of his pass attempts (near league average).
-Carolina’s offensive line has struggled to open holes as they are tied for 31st in yards before contact per attempt (1.7 yards)
-Panthers Opponents have converted on a 25% of their 3rd downs (1st in the league).

Texans: Metrics To Consider

Texans: Metrics To Consider
-Houston isn’t afraid to air it out, ranking 4th in air yards per pass attempt.
-The Houston offensive line has allowed the 14th most pressures (26% of dropbacks).
-Houston quarterbacks have been sacked twice. Second fewest in the league.
-Houston quarterbacks have the 5th highest “bad throw” percentage at 20%.
-Houston’s offensive line is ranked last in yards before contact per attempt (1.3)
-Houston’s defense has allowed opponents have converted third downs at a 35% rate (8th in the league).

Betting Odds

BookTypeNamePriceOddsNo Vig Odds
DraftKingsPoint SpreadCarolina Panthers -8-11052.3809520.5
DraftKingsPoint SpreadHouston Texans +8-11052.3809520.5
BookTypeNamePriceOddsNo Vig Odds
FanDuelSpreadCarolina Panthers -7.5-11854.1284400.514975
FanDuelSpreadHouston Texans +7.5-10450.9803920.485025
BookTypeNamePriceOddsNo Vig Odds
DraftKings1st Half SpreadCarolina Panthers -3.5-12054.5454550.521739
DraftKings1st Half SpreadHouston Texans +3.510050.0000000.478261
BookTypeNamePriceOddsNo Vig Odds
FanDuel1st Half SpreadCarolina Panthers -4.510050.0000000.478261
FanDuel1st Half SpreadHouston Texans +4.5-12054.5454550.521739

The spread opened for this matchup at -4.5 but has climbed throughout the week with news of Tyrod Taylor’s injury. If you are leaning towards the Texans keeping it tight, I would steer towards the DraftKing line of +8 at -110. In a game with so many unknowns, the extra half point of the cushion isn’t coming at an extreme cost.

One of my favorite strategies is to target some of the alternative betting lines with less action. Through the first two weeks, Carolina has led by 16 and 17 points heading into the half. I think this trend continues in Texas and will be taking the better price at FandDuel (Panthers -4.5).

I would recommend staying away from the 1st half Moneyline market as there isn’t enough value to take Carolina as the heavy favorite. The no vig probability at Pinnacle Sportsbook shows there is a 28% of Houston leading at the half. If leading up to the game I see the DraftKings or Fanduel price move closer to 240 I will look to place a small wager on the underdogs.

BookTypeNamePriceOddsNo Vig Odds
FanDuelMoneylineCarolina Panthers-40580.1980200.771079
FanDuelMoneylineHouston Texans32023.8095240.228921
BookTypeNamePriceOddsNo Vig Odds
DraftKingsMoneylineCarolina Panthers-41080.3921570.76723
DraftKingsMoneylineHouston Texans31024.3902440.23277
TypeNameBookPriceOddsBookPriceOddsBookPriceOddsNo Vig Odds
1st Half MoneylineCarolina PanthersFanDuel-28073.684211DraftKings-27573.333333Pinnacle-287.074.1602070.716623
1st Half MoneylineHouston TexansFanDuel22031.250000DraftKings22031.250000Pinnacle241.029.3255130.283377

Profitable Props

BetNameBookDK PriceDK Implied ProbBookFD PriceFD Implied Prop
Anytime TDChristian McCaffreyDraftKings-25071.428571FanDuel-380.079.166667
Anytime TDDJ MooreDraftKings11047.619048FanDuel150.040.000000
Anytime TDRobby AndersonDraftKings17536.363636FanDuel185.035.087719
Anytime TDBrandin CooksDraftKings20033.333333FanDuel180.035.714286
Anytime TDMark IngramDraftKings22530.769231FanDuel210.032.258065
Anytime TDPhillip LindsayDraftKings25028.571429FanDuel550.015.384615
Anytime TDTerrace MarshallDraftKings27526.666667FanDuel340.022.727273
Anytime TDChris ConleyDraftKings30025.000000FanDuel550.015.384615
Anytime TDDavid JohnsonDraftKings30025.000000FanDuel320.023.809524
Anytime TDSam DarnoldDraftKings31024.390244FanDuel500.016.666667
Anytime TDChuba HubbardDraftKings40020.000000FanDuel420.019.230769
Anytime TDDan ArnoldDraftKings40020.000000FanDuel380.020.833333
Anytime TDAnthony MillerDraftKings40020.000000FanDuel500.016.666667
Anytime TDAndre RobertsDraftKings45018.181818FanDuel800.011.111111

In NFL betting significant value can be found the player prop market. One bet that stands out for Thursday night is the Christian McCaffrey anytime touchdown. I will look to lock this bet in at DraftKings as they are offering a significantly better price than FanDuel (-250 vs -380).

There is also value to be found in taking DJ Moore at Fanduel. Currently, DraftKings is paying as if there is nearly a 48% percent of Moore finding the endzone. At Fanduel (+150) there is enough value for me to wager a half unit.

One longshot parlay for the Thursday night game is combining Sam Darnold and Phillip Lindsay (Fanduel). A $1 wager will return $38 in profit.

PrizePicks Of The Night

Christian McCaffrey – Over 84.5 Rushing Yards

D.J. Moore – Over 66.5 Receiving Yards

Brandin Cooks – Over 66.5 Receiving Yards

UnderDog Fantasy

Sam Darnold- Over 19.45 Fantasy Points

Davis Mills – Over 13.65 Fantasy Points

Receiving Yards: Brandin Cooks vs D.J. Moore (+1.5)

Rushing Yards: Christian McCaffrey vs Mark Ingram +53.5

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