NFL Week 3 Betting Recap: Eagles at Cowboys Prop Cheat Sheet

Looking Back On The Week 2 Betting Performance And Monday Night Football Props

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The NFL week three main slate of games once again was entertaining from beginning to end. Justin Tucker’s record-setting kick piled on the misery for Lion’s fans. Matthew Stafford proved he was worth the trade in a shootout against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. And to cap it off, Aaron Rodgers’ late-game heroics helped Green Bay finally get a win in San Francisco.

Betting Recap

This week I continued to focus on player props using DraftKings FanDuel Sportsbook, PrizePicks DFS, and UnderDog Fantasy. Sunday’s slate of games left me well in the green. In my UnderDog Fantasy and PrizePicks lineups, I had to mix and match as they only allow entries of five players at a time. This ended up working out as I only included Teddy Bridgewater in two of the entires. For PrizePicks, my profit/loss was less affected as getting the Bridgewater pick wrong knocked me from a x10 payout to x2. UnderDog fantasy has a true all-or-nothing structure, meaning this pick was more costly.

LineMy PickResultW/L
Zach Wilson Under 216.6Under160W
Teddy Bridgewater Over 243.5Over235L
Russell Wilson Over 281.5 Over298W
Kirk Cousins Over 278.5Over323W
Jacoby Brissett Over 228.5Under215W
Derek Carr Over 274.5Over386W
Tom Brady Over 301.5Over432W
Matthew Stafford Over 303.5Over343W

Eagles at Cowboys Props

Jalen Hurts and the Eagles look to rebound after a week two loss to the 49ers. Looking back to last season’s matchup with the Cowboys, Hurts put up 342 passing yards. In his week one game against Atlanta, a similar defense to Dallas, Hurts ended with 264 through the air. So far, Hurts has shown he can take advantage of good matchups but struggles against top defensive units.

When watching Hurts and the Eagles it is clear they are opting to get the ball out quickly. So far Hurts has taken advantage of this strategy as ranked 4th among quarterbacks in on-target throws (76.8%). Bettors at Pinnacle SportBook are expressing their skepticism of the Cowboy’s defense with an over-under line three points higher than Fanduel. With the game having an over-under total of 51.5, and Dak Prescott looking to air it out, I am locking in Jalen Hurts over 248.5 on FanDuel.

BookTypeNamePriceOdds
FanDuelPassing YardsJalen Hurts Under 248.5-11052.380952
FanDuelPassing YardsJalen Hurts Over 249.5-11252.830189
BookTypeNamePriceOddsNo Vig Odds
PinnaclePassing YardsJalen Hurts Over 251.5-11653.7037040.502022
PinnaclePassing YardsJalen Hurts Under 251.5-11453.2710280.497978

Jalen Hurts Over 248.5 Passing Yards

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has been fun to watch in his comeback from a severe ankle injury. Dallas will look to build off their emotional victory in LA with a victory over a divisional rival.

In week two, Prescott came back to earth after his 403-yard performance against Tampa Bay. However, in tonight’s matchup, he should find success through the air against an Eagles defense who allowed over Prescott’s line of 297 in 81% of their games (2020). After two games this year, the Cowboys are ranked 5th in pass attempts, averaging 42.5 per game. In what I see ending in a close game, Prescott should have no problem hitting his prop of going over 297.5 passing yards.

BookTypeNamePriceOdds
FanDuelPassing YardsDak Prescott Over 297.5-11052.380952
FanDuelPassing YardsDak Prescott Under 297.5-11052.380952
FanDuelPassing YardsDak Prescott Over 299.5-10651.456311
BookTypeNamePriceOddsNo Vig Odds
PinnaclePassing YardsDak Prescott Over 300.5-11653.7037040.502022
PinnaclePassing YardsDak Prescott Under 300.5-11453.2710280.497978

Dake Prescott Over 297.5 Passing Yards

Anytime Touchdown Props

When it comes to anytime touchdowns, I like to limit my stake to half a unit. Even with players priced at a 50/50 bet, there is too much variability to invest a full unit or more. In today’s game, I recommend line shopping to find the best price. Two bets that stand out for tonight are taking Ezekiel Elliot and Jalen Hurts to find the endzone (FanDuel).

DraftKings is currently pricing an Elliot touchdown as if there is a 57% chance of it happening. FanDuel is paying +110 odds, implying only a 47% chance. In these instances, I jump all over the value provided by the FanDuel odds.

Similarly, a Jalen Hurts rushing touchdown is priced at a 44% chance on DraftKings compared to the +160 payout, 38% implied probability on FanDuel. Although there are questions about Tony Pollard taking opportunities away from Elliott, in week two he saw an increase in carries and found the endzone.

I see taking Hurts to run the ball in as a good bet as he is the one player with the ball in his hands every play. Mobile quarterbacks near the endzone put stress on defenders who must choose between staying with their receiver or giving up the rushing touchdown. My suggestion is to play Elliott and Hurst as individual bets as well as linking them together in a parlay. A $10 parlay on this bet would turn into a healthy $46.

Type_xNameBook_xPrice_xOdds_xBook_yPrice_yOdds_y
Anytime TDEzekiel ElliottDraftKings-13557.446809FanDuel110.047.619048
Anytime TDCeeDee LambDraftKings11546.511628FanDuel100.050.000000
Anytime TDAmari CooperDraftKings12045.454545FanDuel115.046.511628
Anytime TDJalen HurtsDraftKings12544.444444FanDuel160.038.461538
Anytime TDMiles SandersDraftKings14041.666667FanDuel145.040.816327
Anytime TDTony PollardDraftKings15040.000000FanDuel175.036.363636
Anytime TDDeVonta SmithDraftKings15040.000000FanDuel175.036.363636
Anytime TDDak PrescottDraftKings22530.769231FanDuel220.031.250000
Anytime TDKenneth GainwellDraftKings22530.769231FanDuel230.030.303030
Anytime TDDallas GoedertDraftKings22530.769231FanDuel260.027.777778
Anytime TDCedrick WilsonDraftKings33023.255814FanDuel330.023.255814
Anytime TDBlake JarwinDraftKings33023.255814FanDuel390.020.408163
Anytime TDDalton SchultzDraftKings35022.222222FanDuel380.020.833333
Anytime TDZach ErtzDraftKings35022.222222FanDuel500.016.666667
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Anytime Touchdowns: Ezekiel Elliot and Jalen Hurts

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