The NFL week three main slate of games once again was entertaining from beginning to end. Justin Tucker’s record-setting kick piled on the misery for Lion’s fans. Matthew Stafford proved he was worth the trade in a shootout against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. And to cap it off, Aaron Rodgers’ late-game heroics helped Green Bay finally get a win in San Francisco.
This week I continued to focus on player props using DraftKings FanDuel Sportsbook, PrizePicks DFS, and UnderDog Fantasy. Sunday’s slate of games left me well in the green. In my UnderDog Fantasy and PrizePicks lineups, I had to mix and match as they only allow entries of five players at a time. This ended up working out as I only included Teddy Bridgewater in two of the entires. For PrizePicks, my profit/loss was less affected as getting the Bridgewater pick wrong knocked me from a x10 payout to x2. UnderDog fantasy has a true all-or-nothing structure, meaning this pick was more costly.
|Zach Wilson Under 216.6||Under||160||W|
|Teddy Bridgewater Over 243.5||Over||235||L|
|Russell Wilson Over 281.5||Over||298||W|
|Kirk Cousins Over 278.5||Over||323||W|
|Jacoby Brissett Over 228.5||Under||215||W|
|Derek Carr Over 274.5||Over||386||W|
|Tom Brady Over 301.5||Over||432||W|
|Matthew Stafford Over 303.5||Over||343||W|
Eagles at Cowboys Props
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles look to rebound after a week two loss to the 49ers. Looking back to last season’s matchup with the Cowboys, Hurts put up 342 passing yards. In his week one game against Atlanta, a similar defense to Dallas, Hurts ended with 264 through the air. So far, Hurts has shown he can take advantage of good matchups but struggles against top defensive units.
When watching Hurts and the Eagles it is clear they are opting to get the ball out quickly. So far Hurts has taken advantage of this strategy as ranked 4th among quarterbacks in on-target throws (76.8%). Bettors at Pinnacle SportBook are expressing their skepticism of the Cowboy’s defense with an over-under line three points higher than Fanduel. With the game having an over-under total of 51.5, and Dak Prescott looking to air it out, I am locking in Jalen Hurts over 248.5 on FanDuel.
|FanDuel||Passing Yards||Jalen Hurts Under 248.5||-110||52.380952|
|FanDuel||Passing Yards||Jalen Hurts Over 249.5||-112||52.830189|
|Book||Type||Name||Price||Odds||No Vig Odds|
|Pinnacle||Passing Yards||Jalen Hurts Over 251.5||-116||53.703704||0.502022|
|Pinnacle||Passing Yards||Jalen Hurts Under 251.5||-114||53.271028||0.497978|
Jalen Hurts Over 248.5 Passing Yards
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has been fun to watch in his comeback from a severe ankle injury. Dallas will look to build off their emotional victory in LA with a victory over a divisional rival.
In week two, Prescott came back to earth after his 403-yard performance against Tampa Bay. However, in tonight’s matchup, he should find success through the air against an Eagles defense who allowed over Prescott’s line of 297 in 81% of their games (2020). After two games this year, the Cowboys are ranked 5th in pass attempts, averaging 42.5 per game. In what I see ending in a close game, Prescott should have no problem hitting his prop of going over 297.5 passing yards.
|FanDuel||Passing Yards||Dak Prescott Over 297.5||-110||52.380952|
|FanDuel||Passing Yards||Dak Prescott Under 297.5||-110||52.380952|
|FanDuel||Passing Yards||Dak Prescott Over 299.5||-106||51.456311|
|Book||Type||Name||Price||Odds||No Vig Odds|
|Pinnacle||Passing Yards||Dak Prescott Over 300.5||-116||53.703704||0.502022|
|Pinnacle||Passing Yards||Dak Prescott Under 300.5||-114||53.271028||0.497978|
Dake Prescott Over 297.5 Passing Yards
Anytime Touchdown Props
When it comes to anytime touchdowns, I like to limit my stake to half a unit. Even with players priced at a 50/50 bet, there is too much variability to invest a full unit or more. In today’s game, I recommend line shopping to find the best price. Two bets that stand out for tonight are taking Ezekiel Elliot and Jalen Hurts to find the endzone (FanDuel).
DraftKings is currently pricing an Elliot touchdown as if there is a 57% chance of it happening. FanDuel is paying +110 odds, implying only a 47% chance. In these instances, I jump all over the value provided by the FanDuel odds.
Similarly, a Jalen Hurts rushing touchdown is priced at a 44% chance on DraftKings compared to the +160 payout, 38% implied probability on FanDuel. Although there are questions about Tony Pollard taking opportunities away from Elliott, in week two he saw an increase in carries and found the endzone.
I see taking Hurts to run the ball in as a good bet as he is the one player with the ball in his hands every play. Mobile quarterbacks near the endzone put stress on defenders who must choose between staying with their receiver or giving up the rushing touchdown. My suggestion is to play Elliott and Hurst as individual bets as well as linking them together in a parlay. A $10 parlay on this bet would turn into a healthy $46.
|Anytime TD||Ezekiel Elliott||DraftKings||-135||57.446809||FanDuel||110.0||47.619048|
|Anytime TD||CeeDee Lamb||DraftKings||115||46.511628||FanDuel||100.0||50.000000|
|Anytime TD||Amari Cooper||DraftKings||120||45.454545||FanDuel||115.0||46.511628|
|Anytime TD||Jalen Hurts||DraftKings||125||44.444444||FanDuel||160.0||38.461538|
|Anytime TD||Miles Sanders||DraftKings||140||41.666667||FanDuel||145.0||40.816327|
|Anytime TD||Tony Pollard||DraftKings||150||40.000000||FanDuel||175.0||36.363636|
|Anytime TD||DeVonta Smith||DraftKings||150||40.000000||FanDuel||175.0||36.363636|
|Anytime TD||Dak Prescott||DraftKings||225||30.769231||FanDuel||220.0||31.250000|
|Anytime TD||Kenneth Gainwell||DraftKings||225||30.769231||FanDuel||230.0||30.303030|
|Anytime TD||Dallas Goedert||DraftKings||225||30.769231||FanDuel||260.0||27.777778|
|Anytime TD||Cedrick Wilson||DraftKings||330||23.255814||FanDuel||330.0||23.255814|
|Anytime TD||Blake Jarwin||DraftKings||330||23.255814||FanDuel||390.0||20.408163|
|Anytime TD||Dalton Schultz||DraftKings||350||22.222222||FanDuel||380.0||20.833333|
|Anytime TD||Zach Ertz||DraftKings||350||22.222222||FanDuel||500.0||16.666667|
Anytime Touchdowns: Ezekiel Elliot and Jalen Hurts