NFL Week 3: Afternoon Slate QB Betting Props

As a sports bettor, there isn’t anything like NFL Sunday. The multiple time slot set-up allows bettors to find profitable opportunities all day long. In most cases, as the day goes on, tv networks try to bring viewers the premier matchups of the week.

Not only do we get to watch great games, but we also get to make money off them. Whether you need the second slate of games to recover from a rough start or you are in the place to tack on additional profits, here is your player prop guide for the second slate of week three games.

Jets vs Broncos

Zach Wilson (Under 216.5 Passing Yards)

I hope Vegas oddsmakers struggle as much as I do with evaluating rookie quarterbacks, as we only have two games to guide our pick. So far, the Broncos’ defense has been tough against the pass, allowing only 184 yards per game. However, they have yet to be tested, facing Daniel Jones and Trevor Lawrence.

In 2020, the Denver defense 237 yards per game through the air and held opponents under Wilson’s line of 216.5 in 31% of their games. When looking at Pinnacle, a lower line of 212.5 sits as a 50/50 bet. Combine this with the Jets offensive line allowing pressure on 35% of dropbacks, I’m taking the under (216.5) at Fanduel.

Teddy Bridgewater (Over 243.5 Passing Yards)

In 2020 with 15 games played as a Carolina Panther, Teddy Bridgewater went over his line of 243.5 in 60% of his games. So far, the Broncos quarterback has thrown for 264 and 328 yards. Despite the Jets having the 10th best passing defense, their 2020 defense allowed over 243.5 in 81% of their games. Pinnacle’s line of 250.5 assures me that Bridgewater is a steal at 243.5.

Seahawks vs Vikings

Russell Wilson (Over 281.5 Passing Yards)

Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is coming off of a 22 of 31, 343-yard performance against the Titans. In 2021’s first two weeks, Wilson has completions of 69 and 68 yards, respectively. In 2020, the Viking’s defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw over 281 yards in 56% of their games. Although it is still early, it appears that Minnesota will continue struggling to defend the pass. Through two weeks, they rank 26th, allowing 294 yards per game. I see this game coming down to a shootout with Wilson hitting the over (281.5).

Kirk Cousins (Over 278.5 Passing Yards)

If the Vikings are going to come up with their first win of the season, Kirk Cousins must have a big performance. The knock on Cousin’s career is that he hasn’t shown up in big games. Seattle’s defense appears to be in line with their 2020 unit who allowed over 278 yards in 62% of their games. Last season, Cousins had an intended air yards/pass attempt of 8 compared to just 6.2 this season. I see the Vikings, looking to air it out in week three, and am taking Cousins on the over (278.5).

Dolphins vs Raiders

Jacoby Brissett (Under 228.5)

One of the biggest mysteries of week three is what to expect from Jacoby Brissett. In 2020, the Raiders defense allowed opposing quarterbacks to go over the line of 228.5, in 81% of their games. Despite Brissett offering more to the passing game than Tua Tagovailoa, I don’t see the Dolphins drastically altering the game plan. Despite the low number, I’m taking the under 228.5.

Derek Carr (Over 274.5)

Raiders quarterback Derek Carr has started the year on fire, with games of 435 and 382 passing yards, respectively. With Josh Jacobs listed as doubtful, the Raiders figure to continue to air the ball out with Carr. The Dolphin’s defense will be his best test so far as they are allowing just 219 yards through the air. In 2020, Carr went over 274 yards in 56% of his games. Pinnacle SportsBook has its line set three yards higher at 277.5. I see Carr continuing his hot start to the season and am taking the over 274.5 at FanDuel.

Buccanears vs Rams

Tom Brady (Over 301.5)

In the most anticipated matchup of the week, Tom Brady looks to take the Buccaneers to 3-0 in Los Angeles. FanDuel has his over/under at 301.5 compared to Pinnacle’s 308.5. One reason behind the early-season success is that Brady is being pressured on just 10% of his dropbacks. The Rams continue to be one of the league’s premier defenses, giving up an average of just 216.5 pass yards this season. Despite the high total, I am taking Brady with the over 301.5 in what figures to be a fun game.

Matthew Stafford (Over 303.5)

The Rams have to be happy with the early returns on adding Matthew Stafford. The LAR quarterback has to be counting down the moments until kickoff as the Buccaneers are allowing 342 passing yards per game this season. In 2020, Tampa’s defense allowed over 303.5 in 56% of their games. FanDuel’s line of 303.5 is considerably lower than Pinnacle’s 314.5. Like his counterpart, Stafford has enjoyed a clean pocket, being pressured on just 11% of his passing attempts. I see this game going down to the wire in a shootout and am taking Stafford with the over 303.5.

Joe Kieman

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