Fans of the NFL were treated to a wild week two set of games, capped off with a stunning Baltimore Ravens victory over the Chiefs. A series of last-second field goals (and misses) left bettors sweating it out on Sunday. To top it off, we will be treated to an NFC North matchup of the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.
Sunday Betting: What Went Right
This week I focused on continuing my exploration of the alternative DFS platforms, UnderDog Fantasy and PrizePicks. Between the two platforms, I had far greater success with UnderDog Fantasy’s Rival Pick’em contest.
| Statistic | Player 1 (My Pick) | Player 1 Result | Player 2 | Player 2 Result |
| Longest Completion | Russell Wilson | 69 | Ryan Tannehill | 51 |
| Longest Completion | Zach Wilson +1 | 35 | Mac Jones | 32 |
| Rec Yards | Keenan Allen | 108 | Amari Cooper | 24 |
| Longest Completion | Dak Prescott | 48 | Justin Herbert +1.5 | 42 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | Darell Henderson +4.5 | 82 | Jonathan Taylor | 53 |
For this contest, it was required that 5 picks be correct, turning my $10 entry fee into $200.
My PrizePick performance left a lot to be desired as I was correct on just 1/5 picks. Luckily, I only dipped my toe in the water using my $5 promo.
| PrizePick Line | My Pick | Result | W/L |
| Chris Godwin Over 66.5 | Over | 62 | L |
| D.J Chark Over 50.5 | Over | 19 | L |
| David Montgomery Over 63.5 | Over | 61 | L |
| Nick Chubb Over 87.5 | Over | 95 | W |
| Devin Singletary Under 47.5 | Under | 82 | L |
A few of my selections ended up being close, however, Devin Singletary blew past his line early and D.J Chark and the Jacksonville offense never got going. I am looking to rebound in a big way with the following PrizePick entry.
Lions vs Packers Picks – Prize Picks
| PrizePick Line | My Pick |
| A.J Dillion Rush Yards Over 36.5 | Over |
| Jared Goff Passing Yards Over 252.5 | Over |
| D’Andre Swift Rush Yards 40.5 | Under |
| Davante Adams Receiving Yards 85.5 Over | Over |
| T.J Hockenson Receiving Yards 54.5 | Over |
Lions vs Packers Picks- UnderDog Fantasy
| UnderDog Fantasy Matchup | My Pick |
| Longest Completion: Jared Goff +2.5 vs Aaron Rodgers | Rodgers |
| Longest Reception: Allen Lazard +1.5 vs T.J Hockenson | Hockenson |
| Pass Yards: Jared Goff +23.5 vs Aaron Rodgers | Rodgers |
NFL Betting Props: Finding Value
The key to successful sports betting is finding value in the odds/lines. One of my favorite strategies is to compare the lines from Fanduel or Draftking vs the odds at Pinnacle Sportsbook. Pinnacle is widely considered to be the “sharpest” sportsbook as they accept larger wagers for more experienced and professional bettors. This analysis can reveal how the “sharp” bettors are feeling about a bet and capitalize on better odds at DraftKings or FanDuel.
Passing Yards Pinnacle vs Fanduel
| Book | Type | Name | Price | Odds | No Vig Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Pinnacle | Passing Yards | Aaron Rodgers Over 281.5 | -116 | 53.703704 | 0.502022 |
| 1 | Pinnacle | Passing Yards | Aaron Rodgers Under 281.5 | -114 | 53.271028 | 0.497978 |
| 2 | Pinnacle | Passing Yards | Jared Goff Over 254.5 | -124 | 55.357143 | 0.517125 |
| 3 | Pinnacle | Passing Yards | Jared Goff Under 254.5 | -107 | 51.690821 | 0.482875 |
| Book | Type | Name | Price | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | FanDuel | Passing Yards | Jared Goff Under 257.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 3 | FanDuel | Passing Yards | Jared Goff Over 249.5 | -138 | 57.983193 |
| 4 | FanDuel | Passing Yards | Jared Goff Over 274.5 | 128 | 43.859649 |
| 11 | FanDuel | Passing Yards | Aaron Rodgers Over 274.5 | -138 | 57.983193 |
| 12 | FanDuel | Passing Yards | Aaron Rodgers Over 299.5 | 126 | 44.247788 |
| 16 | FanDuel | Passing Yards | Aaron Rodgers Over 280.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 17 | FanDuel | Passing Yards | Aaron Rodgers Under 280.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
Bettors at Pinnacle are pricing in Jared Goff going slightly over his line of 254.5. The Packers defense struggled to get off the field in week one and will be without edge rusher Za’Darius Smith. I’m targeting the over at 249.5 giving me some wiggle room.
The lines on Aaron Rodgers passing yards are priced fairly close, however, there is a slight amount of value with Rodgers to go over 280.5 at Fanduel.
| Book | Type | Name | Price | Odds | No Vig Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Pinnacle | Rushing Yards | Jared Goff Over 8.5 | -104 | 50.980392 | 0.475915 |
| 1 | Pinnacle | Rushing Yards | Jared Goff Under 8.5 | -128 | 56.140351 | 0.524085 |
| 2 | Pinnacle | Rushing Yards | AJ Dillon Over 35.5 | -117 | 53.917051 | 0.504045 |
| 3 | Pinnacle | Rushing Yards | AJ Dillon Under 35.5 | -113 | 53.051643 | 0.495955 |
| 4 | Pinnacle | Rushing Yards | Aaron Jones Over 67.5 | -132 | 56.896552 | 0.533500 |
| 5 | Pinnacle | Rushing Yards | Aaron Jones Under 67.5 | 101 | 49.751244 | 0.466500 |
| 6 | Pinnacle | Rushing Yards | D\’Andre Swift Over 39.5 | -113 | 53.051643 | 0.495955 |
| 7 | Pinnacle | Rushing Yards | D\’Andre Swift Under 39.5 | -117 | 53.917051 | 0.504045 |
| 8 | Pinnacle | Rushing Yards | Jamaal Williams Over 37.5 | -142 | 58.677686 | 0.547257 |
| 9 | Pinnacle | Rushing Yards | Jamaal Williams Under 37.5 | 106 | 48.543689 | 0.452743 |
Rushing Yards Pinnacle vs Fanduel
| Book | Type | Name | Price | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | FanDuel | Rushing Yards | Jared Goff Under 8.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 1 | FanDuel | Rushing Yards | D\’Andre Swift Over 42.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 2 | FanDuel | Rushing Yards | D\’Andre Swift Under 42.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 6 | FanDuel | Rushing Yards | Aaron Jones Over 69.5 | -114 | 53.271028 |
| 7 | FanDuel | Rushing Yards | Aaron Jones Over 79.5 | 134 | 42.735043 |
| 11 | FanDuel | Rushing Yards | Aaron Jones Over 68.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 12 | FanDuel | Rushing Yards | Aaron Jones Under 68.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 14 | FanDuel | Rushing Yards | D\’Andre Swift Over 39.5 | -140 | 58.333333 |
| 15 | FanDuel | Rushing Yards | D\’Andre Swift Over 49.5 | 128 | 43.859649 |
| 20 | FanDuel | Rushing Yards | Aaron Rodgers Over 9.5 | -136 | 57.627119 |
| 21 | FanDuel | Rushing Yards | Aaron Rodgers Under 9.5 | 106 | 48.543689 |
| 22 | FanDuel | Rushing Yards | AJ Dillon Over 36.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 23 | FanDuel | Rushing Yards | AJ Dillon Under 36.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
For the Monday night rushing props, I will be locking in D’Andre Swift on the under 42.5 on FanDuel. Pinnacle is already leaning towards Swift going under 39.5, making him a good pick at 42.5. The Packers figure to attack the Lion’s weak secondary, leaving me without a heavy lean on Aaron Jones or A.J. Dillion.
Receiving Yards Pinnacle vs Fanduel
| Book | Type | Name | Price | Odds | No Vig Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 38.5 | -118 | 54.128440 | 0.506069 |
| 1 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Marquez Valdes-Scantling Under 38.5 | -112 | 52.830189 | 0.493931 |
| 2 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | D\’Andre Swift Over 28.5 | -116 | 53.703704 | 0.502022 |
| 3 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | D\’Andre Swift Under 28.5 | -114 | 53.271028 | 0.497978 |
| 4 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Robert Tonyan Over 30.5 | -118 | 54.128440 | 0.506069 |
| 5 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Robert Tonyan Under 30.5 | -112 | 52.830189 | 0.493931 |
| 6 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | T.J. Hockenson Over 52.5 | -143 | 58.847737 | 0.550366 |
| 7 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | T.J. Hockenson Under 52.5 | 108 | 48.076923 | 0.449634 |
| 8 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Allen Lazard Over 32.5 | -139 | 58.158996 | 0.543850 |
| 9 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Allen Lazard Under 32.5 | 105 | 48.780488 | 0.456150 |
| 10 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Davante Adams Over 84.5 | -136 | 57.627119 | 0.539135 |
| 11 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Davante Adams Under 84.5 | 103 | 49.261084 | 0.460865 |
| 12 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Aaron Jones Over 16.5 | -134 | 57.264957 | 0.536340 |
| 13 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Aaron Jones Under 16.5 | 102 | 49.504950 | 0.463660 |
| 14 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 40.5 | -116 | 53.703704 | 0.502022 |
| 15 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 40.5 | -114 | 53.271028 | 0.497978 |
| 16 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Jamaal Williams Over 18.5 | -140 | 58.333333 | 0.545799 |
| 17 | Pinnacle | Receiving Yards | Jamaal Williams Under 18.5 | 106 | 48.543689 | 0.454201 |
| Book | Type | Name | Price | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | T.J. Hockenson Over 59.5 | -112 | 52.830189 |
| 3 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | T.J. Hockenson Over 69.5 | 136 | 42.372881 |
| 7 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | T.J. Hockenson Over 55.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 8 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | T.J. Hockenson Under 55.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 9 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | Allen Lazard Over 33.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 10 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | Allen Lazard Under 33.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 11 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | D\’Andre Swift Over 28.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 12 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | D\’Andre Swift Under 28.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 13 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | Aaron Jones Over 19.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 14 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | Aaron Jones Under 19.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 15 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | Davante Adams Over 87.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 16 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | Davante Adams Under 87.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 17 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 39.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 18 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | Marquez Valdes-Scantling Under 39.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 24 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | Davante Adams Over 89.5 | 100 | 50.000000 |
| 25 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | Davante Adams Over 99.5 | 140 | 41.666667 |
| 30 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 39.5 | -120 | 54.545455 |
| 31 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 49.5 | 134 | 42.735043 |
| 36 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | Robert Tonyan Jr Over 31.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
| 37 | FanDuel | Receiving Yards | Robert Tonyan Jr Under 31.5 | -113 | 53.051643 |
My favorite receiving yards play for the night is Allen Lazard over 33.5 on Fanduel. Davante Adams will continue seeing double coverage, presenting opportunities for Lazard. For Detroit, I will jump on T.J Hockenson to go over his Fanduel line of 55.5.
Monday Night Football Props Summary
| Bet | Pick |
| Jared Goff Over 254.5 Passing Yards | Over |
| Aaron Rodgers Over 280.5 Passing Yards | Over |
| D’Andre Swift Under 39.5 Rushing Yards | Under |
| Allen Lazard Over 33.5 Receiving Yards | Over |
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