NFL Week 2 Wagering Recap-Lions At Packers Betting Guide

Recapping Week 2 Bets And Looking Forward To Lions vs Packers

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NFL Week 2 Wagering Recap-Lions At Packers Betting Guide

Fans of the NFL were treated to a wild week two set of games, capped off with a stunning Baltimore Ravens victory over the Chiefs. A series of last-second field goals (and misses) left bettors sweating it out on Sunday. To top it off, we will be treated to an NFC North matchup of the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.

Sunday Betting: What Went Right

This week I focused on continuing my exploration of the alternative DFS platforms, UnderDog Fantasy and PrizePicks. Between the two platforms, I had far greater success with UnderDog Fantasy’s Rival Pick’em contest.

StatisticPlayer 1 (My Pick)Player 1 ResultPlayer 2Player 2 Result
Longest CompletionRussell Wilson69Ryan Tannehill51
Longest CompletionZach Wilson +135Mac Jones32
Rec YardsKeenan Allen108Amari Cooper24
Longest CompletionDak Prescott48Justin Herbert +1.542
Rush + Rec YardsDarell Henderson +4.582Jonathan Taylor 53

For this contest, it was required that 5 picks be correct, turning my $10 entry fee into $200.

My PrizePick performance left a lot to be desired as I was correct on just 1/5 picks. Luckily, I only dipped my toe in the water using my $5 promo.

PrizePick LineMy PickResultW/L
Chris Godwin Over 66.5Over62L
D.J Chark Over 50.5Over19L
David Montgomery Over 63.5Over61L
Nick Chubb Over 87.5Over95W
Devin Singletary Under 47.5Under82L

A few of my selections ended up being close, however, Devin Singletary blew past his line early and D.J Chark and the Jacksonville offense never got going. I am looking to rebound in a big way with the following PrizePick entry.

Lions vs Packers Picks – Prize Picks

PrizePick LineMy Pick
A.J Dillion Rush Yards Over 36.5Over
Jared Goff Passing Yards Over 252.5Over
D’Andre Swift Rush Yards 40.5Under
Davante Adams Receiving Yards 85.5 OverOver
T.J Hockenson Receiving Yards 54.5Over

Lions vs Packers Picks- UnderDog Fantasy

UnderDog Fantasy MatchupMy Pick
Longest Completion: Jared Goff +2.5 vs Aaron RodgersRodgers
Longest Reception: Allen Lazard +1.5 vs T.J HockensonHockenson
Pass Yards: Jared Goff +23.5 vs Aaron RodgersRodgers

NFL Betting Props: Finding Value

The key to successful sports betting is finding value in the odds/lines. One of my favorite strategies is to compare the lines from Fanduel or Draftking vs the odds at Pinnacle Sportsbook. Pinnacle is widely considered to be the “sharpest” sportsbook as they accept larger wagers for more experienced and professional bettors. This analysis can reveal how the “sharp” bettors are feeling about a bet and capitalize on better odds at DraftKings or FanDuel.

Passing Yards Pinnacle vs Fanduel

BookTypeNamePriceOddsNo Vig Odds
0PinnaclePassing YardsAaron Rodgers Over 281.5-11653.7037040.502022
1PinnaclePassing YardsAaron Rodgers Under 281.5-11453.2710280.497978
2PinnaclePassing YardsJared Goff Over 254.5-12455.3571430.517125
3PinnaclePassing YardsJared Goff Under 254.5-10751.6908210.482875
BookTypeNamePriceOdds
0FanDuelPassing YardsJared Goff Under 257.5-11353.051643
3FanDuelPassing YardsJared Goff Over 249.5-13857.983193
4FanDuelPassing YardsJared Goff Over 274.512843.859649
11FanDuelPassing YardsAaron Rodgers Over 274.5-13857.983193
12FanDuelPassing YardsAaron Rodgers Over 299.512644.247788
16FanDuelPassing YardsAaron Rodgers Over 280.5-11353.051643
17FanDuelPassing YardsAaron Rodgers Under 280.5-11353.051643

Bettors at Pinnacle are pricing in Jared Goff going slightly over his line of 254.5. The Packers defense struggled to get off the field in week one and will be without edge rusher Za’Darius Smith. I’m targeting the over at 249.5 giving me some wiggle room.

The lines on Aaron Rodgers passing yards are priced fairly close, however, there is a slight amount of value with Rodgers to go over 280.5 at Fanduel.

BookTypeNamePriceOddsNo Vig Odds
0PinnacleRushing YardsJared Goff Over 8.5-10450.9803920.475915
1PinnacleRushing YardsJared Goff Under 8.5-12856.1403510.524085
2PinnacleRushing YardsAJ Dillon Over 35.5-11753.9170510.504045
3PinnacleRushing YardsAJ Dillon Under 35.5-11353.0516430.495955
4PinnacleRushing YardsAaron Jones Over 67.5-13256.8965520.533500
5PinnacleRushing YardsAaron Jones Under 67.510149.7512440.466500
6PinnacleRushing YardsD\’Andre Swift Over 39.5-11353.0516430.495955
7PinnacleRushing YardsD\’Andre Swift Under 39.5-11753.9170510.504045
8PinnacleRushing YardsJamaal Williams Over 37.5-14258.6776860.547257
9PinnacleRushing YardsJamaal Williams Under 37.510648.5436890.452743

Rushing Yards Pinnacle vs Fanduel

BookTypeNamePriceOdds
0FanDuelRushing YardsJared Goff Under 8.5-11353.051643
1FanDuelRushing YardsD\’Andre Swift Over 42.5-11353.051643
2FanDuelRushing YardsD\’Andre Swift Under 42.5-11353.051643
6FanDuelRushing YardsAaron Jones Over 69.5-11453.271028
7FanDuelRushing YardsAaron Jones Over 79.513442.735043
11FanDuelRushing YardsAaron Jones Over 68.5-11353.051643
12FanDuelRushing YardsAaron Jones Under 68.5-11353.051643
14FanDuelRushing YardsD\’Andre Swift Over 39.5-14058.333333
15FanDuelRushing YardsD\’Andre Swift Over 49.512843.859649
20FanDuelRushing YardsAaron Rodgers Over 9.5-13657.627119
21FanDuelRushing YardsAaron Rodgers Under 9.510648.543689
22FanDuelRushing YardsAJ Dillon Over 36.5-11353.051643
23FanDuelRushing YardsAJ Dillon Under 36.5-11353.051643

For the Monday night rushing props, I will be locking in D’Andre Swift on the under 42.5 on FanDuel. Pinnacle is already leaning towards Swift going under 39.5, making him a good pick at 42.5. The Packers figure to attack the Lion’s weak secondary, leaving me without a heavy lean on Aaron Jones or A.J. Dillion.

Receiving Yards Pinnacle vs Fanduel

BookTypeNamePriceOddsNo Vig Odds
0PinnacleReceiving YardsMarquez Valdes-Scantling Over 38.5-11854.1284400.506069
1PinnacleReceiving YardsMarquez Valdes-Scantling Under 38.5-11252.8301890.493931
2PinnacleReceiving YardsD\’Andre Swift Over 28.5-11653.7037040.502022
3PinnacleReceiving YardsD\’Andre Swift Under 28.5-11453.2710280.497978
4PinnacleReceiving YardsRobert Tonyan Over 30.5-11854.1284400.506069
5PinnacleReceiving YardsRobert Tonyan Under 30.5-11252.8301890.493931
6PinnacleReceiving YardsT.J. Hockenson Over 52.5-14358.8477370.550366
7PinnacleReceiving YardsT.J. Hockenson Under 52.510848.0769230.449634
8PinnacleReceiving YardsAllen Lazard Over 32.5-13958.1589960.543850
9PinnacleReceiving YardsAllen Lazard Under 32.510548.7804880.456150
10PinnacleReceiving YardsDavante Adams Over 84.5-13657.6271190.539135
11PinnacleReceiving YardsDavante Adams Under 84.510349.2610840.460865
12PinnacleReceiving YardsAaron Jones Over 16.5-13457.2649570.536340
13PinnacleReceiving YardsAaron Jones Under 16.510249.5049500.463660
14PinnacleReceiving YardsAmon-Ra St. Brown Over 40.5-11653.7037040.502022
15PinnacleReceiving YardsAmon-Ra St. Brown Under 40.5-11453.2710280.497978
16PinnacleReceiving YardsJamaal Williams Over 18.5-14058.3333330.545799
17PinnacleReceiving YardsJamaal Williams Under 18.510648.5436890.454201
BookTypeNamePriceOdds
2FanDuelReceiving YardsT.J. Hockenson Over 59.5-11252.830189
3FanDuelReceiving YardsT.J. Hockenson Over 69.513642.372881
7FanDuelReceiving YardsT.J. Hockenson Over 55.5-11353.051643
8FanDuelReceiving YardsT.J. Hockenson Under 55.5-11353.051643
9FanDuelReceiving YardsAllen Lazard Over 33.5-11353.051643
10FanDuelReceiving YardsAllen Lazard Under 33.5-11353.051643
11FanDuelReceiving YardsD\’Andre Swift Over 28.5-11353.051643
12FanDuelReceiving YardsD\’Andre Swift Under 28.5-11353.051643
13FanDuelReceiving YardsAaron Jones Over 19.5-11353.051643
14FanDuelReceiving YardsAaron Jones Under 19.5-11353.051643
15FanDuelReceiving YardsDavante Adams Over 87.5-11353.051643
16FanDuelReceiving YardsDavante Adams Under 87.5-11353.051643
17FanDuelReceiving YardsMarquez Valdes-Scantling Over 39.5-11353.051643
18FanDuelReceiving YardsMarquez Valdes-Scantling Under 39.5-11353.051643
24FanDuelReceiving YardsDavante Adams Over 89.510050.000000
25FanDuelReceiving YardsDavante Adams Over 99.514041.666667
30FanDuelReceiving YardsMarquez Valdes-Scantling Over 39.5-12054.545455
31FanDuelReceiving YardsMarquez Valdes-Scantling Over 49.513442.735043
36FanDuelReceiving YardsRobert Tonyan Jr Over 31.5-11353.051643
37FanDuelReceiving YardsRobert Tonyan Jr Under 31.5-11353.051643

My favorite receiving yards play for the night is Allen Lazard over 33.5 on Fanduel. Davante Adams will continue seeing double coverage, presenting opportunities for Lazard. For Detroit, I will jump on T.J Hockenson to go over his Fanduel line of 55.5.

Monday Night Football Props Summary

BetPick
Jared Goff Over 254.5 Passing YardsOver
Aaron Rodgers Over 280.5 Passing YardsOver
D’Andre Swift Under 39.5 Rushing YardsUnder
Allen Lazard Over 33.5 Receiving YardsOver

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