NFL Week 16 Quarterback Cheat Sheet

NFL Week 16 Quarterback Cheat Sheet

NFL Week 15 Ownership Recap

  • Kyler Murray was rostered in 17% of week 15 lineups, finishing with a dissapointing 13.6 points vs Detroit.
  • As the second most owned QB, Tua Tagovailoa ended with 15.74 fantasy points.
  • Aaron Rodgers was the highest producing quarterbck ranked in the top 5 in ownership (11.74%, 23.8 FPTS)
  • In his game vs Green Bay, Tyler Huntley had an ownership average of 3.69%, finishing with 35.9 Fanasy Points.

Christmas Day Special: Kyler Murray ($8700) vs Aaron Rodgers ($8300)

As we head into week 16, fans of the NFL will be blessed with two outstanding Christmas Day matchups. To kick things off, the Cleveland Browns head to the Frozen Tundra to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. After that, Indianapolis and Arizona face off in a game with immense playoff implications.

If you are looking to spice up your Christmas Day with some fantasy action, Kyler Murray comes in as the most expensive quarterback option followed by Aaron Rodgers. Which player is the better Christmas Day quarterback?

Is Murray In Line For A Bounce Back Peformance?

Like most years in the NFL, the early-season front-runner for MVP is rarely able to make it to the finish line on top. This season, Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray was a key factor in his team’s red hot start. However, after dropping their first game vs the Green Bay Packers (week 8), Arizona has gone just 3-3. In this stretch, the team played 4 games without their star quarterback due to injury, all but ending any chance Murray had to finish with any post-season hardware.

Despite missing significant time, Kyler Murray has still put together an outstanding season. In his 11 games, he has thrown for 3039 yards on a completion percentage of just under 70%. For being just his second year in the NFL, Murray has done a good job taking care of the ball, tossing for 20 touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions. Compared to other NFL QB’s, he has thrown just 11 interceptable passes, good for a ranking of 33rd.

This week, Murray and the Cardinals will be facing off with a Colts defense giving up an average of 17 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Overall, opposing QB’s are completing 64% of their passes vs Indianapolis, with an average of 234 yards per game through the air. In the Colts’ most recent game vs New England, quarterback Mac Jones threw for 299 yards and 2 touchdowns, leading to a fantasy output of 19.2.

Will Rodgers Lead The Pack To A Strong Finish?

Heading into his game vs Cleveland, Aaron Rodgers has the highest odds to pick up his fourth NFL MVP Award (+140). If he continues playing well and Green Bay holds on to the top spot in the NFC, Rodgers is nearly a lock to win the award for the second straight season. On the year, the veteran quarterback has thrown for 3487 yards, ranking 7th at his position in fantasy points per game (21.8).

When looking at advanced metrics, Rodgers leads the league in Total QBR (67.3) and is has a True Passer Rating of 108.5, placing him 2nd among quarterbacks. In terms of DFS, Rodgers comes into this game in a groove. Over his past four contests, he has an average of 28.3 points per game, including three finishes in the top 5.

This week, Rodgers is set to take on a Cleveland defense giving up 16.9 fantasy points per to opposing quarterbacks. Overall, the Browns are ranked 13th, allowing 21.8 points per game. Although this unit does a good job avoiding explosive plays, they have struggled to get off the field on 3rd down. So far, the Browns are allowing opponents to convert on 41% of their 3rd down opportunities.

Look For Aaron Rodgers To Keep Things Rolling

Although neither one of these quarterbacks have an ideal matchup for fantasy production, Rodgers is the clear leader of the pack. Look for Green Bay to do everything they can to get Rodgers a touchdown pass early, as his next score will move him past Brett Favre as the team’s all-time leader in touchdown passes.

Sunday’s Slate: Justin Herbert ($8400)

When looking at Sunday’s slate of NFL games, there are plenty of big-name quarterbacks at the top of the salary leaderboard. However, rather than paying up for Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, I recommend rostering Justin Herbert in his matchup with the Houston Texans.

Heading into week 16, Herbert has five straight finishes in the top 10, including ending with 24 points in last week’s game vs Kansas City. This recent string of success has moved him up to 2nd in fantasy points per game (23.6).

When pulling the trigger on a DFS quarterback, I am always looking for the right combination of matchup and opportunities. On the year, the Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league. So far, this group has dropped back to pass on 63% of their plays, leading to 277.1 yards per game (5th).

Los Angeles should have no problem putting up points vs a Texans defense ranked 29th in the league, giving up 26.6 points per contest. Coming into the game, the over-under betting line sits at 46. Given that Houston averages just 14 points per game, look for the Chargers to be responsible for most of this scoring. So far, when LA finds itself near the end zone, they prefer to keep the ball in the hands of Herbert through the passing game. On the year, the Chargers QB is ranked 4th in red-zone pass attempts at 6.6 per game.

The big concern when rostering a quarterback facing the Houston Texans is the fear that the team will move to a more run-heavy scheme if playing from ahead. However, the Chargers are far from an elite defense, giving Houston an opportunity to put some points on the board. Even if the game gets out of hand, look for Herbert to rack up multiple touchdowns on his way to a big performance in week 16.

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