NFL Week 13 Ownership Recap
- In his matchup with the Atlanta Falcons, Tom Brady was the most owned QB at 19.57%. Overall, he finished 2nd at his position with 29.6 FPTS.
- DFS players were willing to take a shot on Gardner Minshew in his first start. Minshew ranked 2nd in ownership at 15%.
- Most contestants opted to wait and see on Kyler Murray. For the 1% who did roll with Murray, he rewarded them with the best fantasy performance among QB’s.
Josh Allen (FanDuel $8800) vs Patrick Mahomes (FanDuel $8500)
If you are someone who likes to roll with one of the top QB’s, this week’s choices have a familiar flare. Throughout the season, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have regularly jockeyed for the top spot on FandDuel’s salary cap list. Is Allen, with his matchup against Tampa the best choice? Or, is Mahomes due for a breakout game?
Allen Is Looking Forward To Florida
As Josh Allen left the field in last week’s loss to the New England Patriots, he could at least take comfort knowing he would be playing his next game in the warm sunshine of Tampa Bay.
On the season, Allen is ranked 4th among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. So far, he has finished as the top-ranked DFS QB in 4 of his 12 games. Overall, he has thrown for 3216 yards and 25 touchdowns.
In last week’s game, despite the miserable playing conditions, the Bills still dropped back to pass 30 times. For the game, Allen finished with 145 yards and a touchdown, leading to a fantasy score of 11.7 points. If there was a silver lining for his fantasy outlook, it was the fact that he finished with 39 yards rushing. After a short stretch of failing to pick up yardage with his legs, Allen has had two straight games of tacking on some additional fantasy points on the ground. Overall, it wasn’t a good fantasy week for the Bills QB, but there was no reason to expect much production while playing in the howling winds of Buffalo.
Heading into week 14, the Buffalo Bills offense has an outstanding matchup with a Buccaneers defense giving up 248 yards per game through the air. So far, teams are throwing the ball 67% of the time vs this unit, most in the NFL. A major reason for this preference is how often teams are finding success through the air. On the season, Tampa Bay is giving up a completion percentage of 68%, ranking 26th among NFL defenses.
This defensive profile matches up well with what Buffalo is trying to accomplish on offense. Through 12 games, Allen is 6th among QB’s in pass attempts, averaging 36.6 per game. So far, he has been efficient with his opportunities, ranking 7th in passing yards and leading the NFL in completed air yards.
Can Mahomes Be Trusted To Deliver?
If you were to take a look at Patrick Mahomes’ game log without knowing who it belonged to, there is little reason to think he would be worth the price at $8500. After starting the year with four straight finishes in the top 10, the former MVP has been a major disappointment to a lot of fantasy owners. Since week 5, Mahomes has had an average fantasy finish of 15th among QBs.
However, if you are looking to roster the Chiefs quarterback in week 14, there is a reason for hope. For the year, Mahomes has just one finish as the top producing player at his position, turning in a 36.2 point performance in week 10 vs Las Vegas. In the game, he completed 70% of 50 pass attempts for 406 yards and 5 touchdowns. This outing was also one of just three games in which he avoided throwing an interception. After the big performance, everyone was looking forward to this being the game that got Mahomes back on track. But since then, he put up just 8.5 points vs Dallas and 13.6 against Denver.
The question heading into this week is whether to believe that Mahomes is capable of replicating what he accomplished the first time around vs Las Vegas? Or, should we place more weight on his overall body of work, as a QB who is more likely to finish in the range of 10-15 points?
The Verdict: Pay Up For Josh Allen
If you are on the fence on whether to roster Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes, I recommend taking the Bills QB in his matchup vs Tampa Bay. In their two most recent games, the Buccaneers allowed Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan to throw for 306 and 297 yards, respectively. Although Ryan was unable to turn any of his passes into touchdowns, a player a of Josh Allen’s calibar will take advantage of a pourous secondary. Let other DFS contestants take a shot on Mahomes and stick with Allen and his outstanding matchup.
Value Play: Taylor Heinicke (FanDuel $7100)
In weird quirk in the 2021-2022 schedule, the Washington Football Team and Dallas Cowboys will be meeting for the first time in week 14. After this week’s matchup, they were turn around and play each other again in just 14 days. With the weather for this game looking to be in good shape, I recommend rostering Taylor Heinicke as a value/tournament QB option. The main reason being, that he will be looking to move the ball against a struggling Cowboys secondary. In Dallas’ last game vs New Orleans, the defense gave up just 17 points but allowed Taysom Hill to throw for 264 yards. This number could have been even higher had he not thrown four interceptions.
For Washington, a win over their division rival would greatly improve their chances to make the playoffs as a wild card team. It would also move them to within one game of the Cowboys for the division lead with another head to head matchup on the horizon. Look for Washington to adjust their game plan to take advantage of the Dallas’ weakness. If you are looking for a QB-WR stack, I recommend pairing Henicke with Terry McLaurin. As of late, McLaurin has been quiet, however he has been thrown to on 26% of his quarterback’s passing attempts, making him an under the radar pick up.