The Week 13 Monday night Showdown slate on DraftKings gives us a critical AFC East (and AFC first-round bye) matchup that will take place, as a game between New England and Buffalo in December should, in terrible weather conditions. The rain, cold, and wind will be a factor in this one, and we must adjust our Showdown thinking accordingly. Let’s look at some players to target in this slate, with a prize pool of $2.25 million, an entry fee of $20 and a $1 million first-place prize, and who to use in the critical Captain slot:
Josh Allen, QB Bills ($16,800):
How you want to factor in the weather conditions tonight will inform your decision-making, but there’s no question the Bills are going to throw the ball and/or Allen is going to run it. It might be sloppy and ugly, and Allen may make mistakes, but he should still account for much of the Bills’ offense and it’s not hard to see him emerge as the raw points leader tonight. He is the safe play.
Damien Harris, RB Patriots ($14,700):
Conversely, the Patriots are likely to go heavy run to protect Mac Jones and keep Allen and the Bills offense off the field as much as possible. Harris has reclaimed his role as the lead back here, and he could be looking at upwards of 20 carries. As long as he holds onto the ball, he should be the top producer on the New England side.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB Patriots ($8,400):
But what if Harris does fumble or gets hurt, or Bill Belichick decides to ride the hot hand, and that hand belongs to Stevenson? Because his role has been reduced the past two weeks, Stevenson comes at a pretty extreme discount for a game that should see the Patriots run the ball a massive amount. The weather never factors into the pricing, and Stevenson is way too cheap for the role he should have (and could have) in this one.
Cole Beasley, WR Bills ($11,700):
With winds whipping at 20-mph, it will be short, possession throws, not long-shots, that rule the night. Stefon Diggs will get his, but Beasley is the guy who should be very busy with short throws to move the sticks. In the PPR format, Beasley could pile up points in a hurry.
Patriots defense ($6,000):
If the weather truly does wreak havoc on this game, it’s the Patriots’ defense that should benefit the most, as the Bills are still going to want to throw the ball, leading to increased opportunities for sacks and turnovers. The Pats’ D has been outstanding in pristine weather, so they have a chance to really do damage in adverse conditions.
Devin Singletary, RB Bills ($4,600):
Matt Breida is the shiny toy right now, but Singletary is still out-touching Breida, and if the Bills do make a greater commitment to running tonight, both backs are going to produce. The difference is Singletary is $2,000 cheaper, which is a pretty significant discount.
Hunter Henry, TE Patriots ($5,200):
Hard to imagine Mac Jones taking a lot of deep shots tonight. Henry has been one of Jones’ favorite red-zone targets all season and has gone two games without a touchdown. I think we can predict a little regression there tonight, and perhaps a few more targets between the 20s in a limited field of fire.