NFL Week 12 Ownership Recap
- In just his second appearance of the year, Cam Newton led all quarterback’s with an ownership aversge of 19.47%.
- Tom Brady was the second most rostered QB, dissapointing his owners with just 12.24 fantasy points.
- Among the top 5 in ownsershup, Justin Herbert led this group with 24.72 fantasy points.
- Aaron Roders ranked 14th in ownership at 1.85%, leading all QB’s with 29.28 fantasy points.
Lamar Jackson (FanDuel $8500) vs Justin Herbert (FanDuel $8200)
Heading into week 13, I have chosen to replace Kyler Murray with Justin Herbert in the matchup of the most expensive quarterbacks. Even though FanDuel has Murray just ahead of Herbert at $8300, his availability for Sunday’s game vs. Chicago is not set in stone. I recommend taking a wait-and-see approach with the Cardinals QB in week 13.
Is Jackson In Line For A Bounce Back Game?
Heading into his game vs the Pittsburgh Steelers, Lamar Jackson has to be eager to redeem himself after throwing four interceptions against the Browns. Even though the former MVP threw for just 165 yards and one touchdown, he still managed to scrape together 13.4 fantasy points, most of which came from his 68 rush yards.
So far, Lamar Jackson’s value as a fantasy quarterback has been all over the place, cracking the weekly top 10 leaderboards just five times in ten games. However, in this year’s resume, he has one finish as the highest producing QB and has finished second, twice. Unlike in previous seasons, Jackson’s ability to put up big fantasy numbers isn’t entirely dependent on his production as a runner. In week 5 and week 9 where he finished 2nd and 1st in quarterback DFS points, he did not need a rushing touchdown to reach these marks.
On the season, the Ravens are dropping back to pass 35 times per game, good for 15th in the NFL. Where Lamar Jackson has shown tremendous growth is his willingness to throw the ball deep. In his 10 games, he is the 6th rated quarterback in deep ball attempts and 7th in completed air yards.
Last year, Lamar Jackson played in just one game vs the Pittsburgh Steelers, throwing for 208 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. On the ground, he picked up 65 yards but failed to find the endzone. This Sunday’s game will be the first time these two teams have played each other this year.
On the season, the Steelers defense is giving up 17.7 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. So far, opposing QB’s are throwing for 234.5 yards on a completion percentage of 56%, the 10th best among NFL defenses.
Will Justin Herbert Stay Hot?
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert comes into week 13 on a hot streak, having thrown for over 300 yards in three of his past four games. However, this stretch of games has also coincided with an uptick in turnovers. Last week vs Denver, Herbert was picked off twice, making it three straight games having thrown an interception.
In terms of fantasy production, Herbert has five finishes in the top 10 among quarterbacks. In weeks 5 and 11 he was the top producer at his position, with performances of 42.8 and 35.3 points, respectively. So far, he has an overall DFS ownership percentage of 7.3% per week.
On the year, the Chargers have opted to throw the ball just under 40 times per game, 3rd most in the NFL. Among QB’s Justin Herbert is 4th in pass yards and 5th in completed air yards. A big reason for this is his efficiency on balls thrown down the field. Even though the second-year quarterback is ranked 20th in deep ball attempts, he completes these passes 43% of the time, the 6th best in the NFL.
This week, Herbert and the Chargers face off with Bengals defense who from a fantasy perspective has been tough on opposing quarterbacks. Through 11 games, the unit is giving up 16.22 fantasy points per contest, good for 7th best in the NFL. However, when digging deeper, Cincinnati is far from elite against the pass. So far, the unit is allowing QB’s to complete 64% of their passes on the way to 254 yards per game.
The Verdict: Justin Herbert
Even though statistics show that quarterbacks are not having a lot of DFS success vs Cincinnati, this unit is not invincible, as teams are able to move the ball through the air. On the season, LA is the 30th ranked team in rush play percentage, keeping the ball on the ground just 35% of the time. I expect this number to be even lower against the 5th rated Bengals rush defense. With his increased number of opportunities, look for Justin Herbert to have a big game.
Value Play: Matt Ryan FanDuel ($6800)
If you are looking for a value play at the quarterback position or a good option for a tournament contest, look no further than Matt Ryan. Looking back to Atlanta’s first matchup vs the Buccaneers, Ryan threw for 300 yards on 46 attempts. The veteran QB would have had an even better fantasy score (19.3), had he not thrown three interceptions.
In this game, I expect the Falcons to lean heavily on the arm of their quarterback as Tampa Bay boasts the league’s best rush defense, giving up just 81 yards per game. There is no reason for Atlanta to even try to win this game on the ground as they are picking up just 3.6 yards per carry, 30th in the NFL. Where the Falcons can place their hope is moving the ball through the air, as Tampa is the worst-rated defense in opponent completion percentage at 67%.
One added benefit of rostering Matt Ryan is that he should be flying under the radar as he is coming off several tough performances. Since putting up 28.5 points vs New Orleans in week 9, the Falcons QB is averaging just 6 points per contest. However, out of all the affordable quarterback options, Matt Ryan has the best matchup and should get enough opportunities to take a shot on the veteran.
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