NFL Week 11 Ownership Recap
- Last week Tua Tagovailoa was owned in 19% of cash game lineups, coming up with 18.5 points
- Cam Newton was the 5th ranked QB producer, being owned in 7.63% of DFS lineups
- Josh Allen dissapointed fantasy owners with just 18 points, despite being the third most owned QB
Lamar Jackson (FanDuel $8500) vs Jalen Hurts ($8400)
Heading into week 12, the two most expensive quarterback options on FanDuel are Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. Earlier in the week, it was unclear if Jackson would be able to play vs. Cleveland after being held out of last week’s game vs. the Bears due to an illness. However, everything is pointing to the former MVP being ready to play. Hurts is coming off a big performance vs. the Saints. Which QB is worth paying up for in week 12?
Is Jackson Worth The Price?
Heading into his game with Cleveland, Lamar Jackson has amassed a total of 2447 passing yards. Even with him missing time, he is on pace to set career highs in passing yards. As a rusher, the former MVP has a total of 639 yards on the ground. So far, he is the top-rated quarterback in fantasy points per game, with an average of 24.4.
The last time Lamar Jackson was on the field was back in week 10 vs the Miami Dolphins. In the contest, he finished with just 16.4 fantasy points, his second-lowest total of the season. In the losing effort, Jackson finished with 238 passing yards on 43 attempts. His yards per attempt figure of 5.5, was his lowest this year. What was especially frustrating for fantasy owners was his inability to make anything happen with his legs. For the game, he finished with just 39 yards on the ground.
This season, Jackson has done a lot of work to shake his reputation of being a run-first quarterback. Even though his team is the 16th ranked unit in pass plays per game, Jackson ranks 5th in deep ball attempts and 6th in air yards. On the year, 62% of his passing yards have come strictly through the air, a high number for an NFL quarterback.
This week, Jackson will be looking for a big performance against a Browns defense giving up 18.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. On average, the team’s secondary allows opponents to complete 58% of their passes for 215 yards per game. Even though they are an above-average unit at defending the pass, they are ranked 24th in 3rd down conversion rate at 43%.
Can Hurts Keep It Rolling?
Last week, Jalen Hurts was my value pick of the week at the quarterback position. His 30.8 point performance vs New Orleans helped me immensely in my DFS tournament entries. In week 11, Hurts was able to be picked up at a value, as he was the 7th most expensive QB. This week, rostering Hurts will take a larger commitment as he takes $8400 off the DFS salary cap.
Overall, Jalen Hurts has thrown for 2306 yards in 11 games. Among NFL quarterbacks he is ranked 6th in fantasy points per game at 23 per contest. What makes Hurts such an effective DFS option is his ability to pick up yards with his legs. On the season, the Eagles QB has rushed for 616 yards, just 21 yards behind Lamar Jackson. However, Hurts has provided more fantasy value with his legs as he has found the endzone 8 times on the ground, compared to Jackson at 2.
Heading into his game vs. the Giants, Jalen Hurts has yet another favorable matchup. On the season, New York is giving up 255 yards per game through the air and 119 yards per game on the ground. Even though Hurts’ overall passing statistics are nothing remarkable, he is a more willing passer than he gets credit for. Among NFL quarterbacks, he is ranked 7th in deep ball attempts and 8th in air yards.
This year, the Eagle’s offensive game plan has not been based on passing attempt volume, rather they are trying to use Jalen Hurts’ versatility to their advantage. Because he is such an effective rusher, defenses are forced to account for this ability, creating opportunities for Philadelphia receivers to get behind the secondary for deep plays. The only problem is, Hurts has yet to connect on these passes in a consistent manner.
The Verdict: Jalen Hurts
Between the two players, Jalen Hurts has a much better matchup. Even though Hurts passing numbers are nothing special to look at, his weekly fantasy point rankings are extremely consistent. And as we just saw, when given the right matchup, he has the ability to be a top-end performer at the position. In the case of Lamar Jackson, I expect the Cleveland pass rush to be disruptive in what he is able to do as a passer. I recommend taking Jalen Hurts.
DFS Sleeper Pick: Mac Jones (FanDuel $6800)
At the start of the season, very few people would have expected the most important matchup of week 11 to be the Titans vs the Patriots. However, with New England having rattled off five straight wins, the outcome of this game holds a lot of weight into how things play out in the AFC playoff picture.
In his rookie season, Patriots quarterback Mac Jones has thrown for 2541 yards, ranking 12th in both yardage and pass attempts. This week, he faces off with a Titans defense ranked 24th in pass yards allowed per game. On average, the Tennesee secondary allows opposing QB’s to complete 63% of their passes for 253 yards per game.
The Titan’s defensive unit matches up well with what Mac Jones is trying to accomplish. In his past two games, he has completed over 80% of his passes. This is part of his overall game as he has a completion percentage of over 70% in 7 of his 11 games.
In terms of low-cost DFS choices, most of this week’s options are matched up with defenses that should limit their upside. Out of all of these players, Mac Jones has the best opportunity to crack the top 10 while freeing up the salary cap for more expensive running backs and receivers.