NFL Week 10 Ownership Recap
- Keenan Allen was the top owned receiver in week 10, being rostered in 24% of cash game lineups.
- Stefon Diggs was owned in just 8% of lineups, finishing with with 30.2 points. Second most among receivers.
- Justin Jefferson made his second appearance in the top 10 point leaderboard with an ownership percentage of 6%.
Tyreek Hill (FanDuel $8500) vs. Davante Adams ($8400)
So far this year, Tyreke Hill and Davante Adams have been jockeying back and forth for the top spot in the DFS salary list. Most receivers, only find themselves commanding a hefty price when blessed with a perfect matchup. However, these two receivers have the talent and track record of success that warrants an automatic top 5 placement.
Can Hill Find The Endzone vs. Dallas?
Kansas City Chiefs wideout, Tyreek Hill comes into this game with 855 receiving yards and a fantasy point average of 21.3 points per game. This output places him third among wide receivers.
A key reason for Hill’s production is his presence in a Chiefs offense ranked number one in pass plays per game. Through 10 games he has been the recipient of 27% of Patrick Mahomes pass attempts, 7th in the NFL. Not only is Tyreek Hill being targeted, but he is also being thrown to in a way that maximizes fantasy output. Big plays and red zone targets. On the season, he leads the league in intended air yards and is second in deep targets. In the red zone, he is the fifth-rated receiver with 12 receptions on 15 targets.
Heading into week 11, Tyreek Hill has an ideal matchup with a Cowboys defense giving up 252 yards per game through the air. Throughout the season, Cowboys opponents have sensed the weakness of the group, throwing the ball on 64% of their plays. This trend falls right in line with what the Chiefs are trying to accomplish.
| Pass Type | Complete | Targets | Completion Percentage | Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHORT LEFT | 23 | 28 | 0.821429 | 202 |
| DEEP LEFT | 6 | 13 | 0.461538 | 178 |
| SHORT RIGHT | 26 | 34 | 0.764706 | 175 |
| DEEP RIGHT | 3 | 9 | 0.333333 | 135 |
| SHORT MIDDLE | 14 | 17 | 0.823529 | 127 |
Will Rodgers And Adams Get Back On Track?
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams heads into week 11 looking to get back to a sense of normalcy. Over the past few weeks, Adams and the Packer’s offense have been on a roller-coaster ride of events, starting with their star receiver missing a game from contracting COVID 19. Then, after being cleared to return, quarterback Aaron Rodgers was also put on the shelf from the virus.
Last week, the two were finally reunited after not practicing together in nearly three weeks. Even though Adams finished with 7 catches for 78 yards, the team’s offense played like they hadn’t had on-field work in several weeks. Statistically, it wasn’t a bad game, but Adams and Rodgers would be the first to say it was a sloppy performance.
This week, Davante Adams will be facing off vs. a Vikings defense ranked 14th in the NFL, allowing 238 pass yards per game. So far, opposing QB’s are finding it hard to even complete the ball at a league-average rate as their defensive unit ranks 4th in the league at 62%. A key reason for their success is a pass rush that forces opponents to get rid of the ball quickly. On the season, they are the number one team in sack percentage at 8.3%.
| Pass Type | Complete | Targets | Completion Percentage | Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHORT MIDDLE | 10 | 13 | 0.769231 | 173 |
| SHORT RIGHT | 19 | 24 | 0.791667 | 143 |
| DEEP MIDDLE | 4 | 5 | 0.800000 | 140 |
| SHORT LEFT | 18 | 24 | 0.750000 | 139 |
| DEEP RIGHT | 3 | 6 | 0.500000 | 122 |
| DEEP LEFT | 5 | 10 | 0.500000 | 105 |
The Verdict: Tyreek Hill
For only $100 off the salary cap, I prefer to take Tyreek Hill over Davante Adams. With Aaron Rodgers missing further practice time due to a toe injury and Adams nursing an ailing shoulder, it is not unreasonable to expect some further sloppiness from the offense. The game between Dallas and Kansas City appears destined for a shootout. I want my WR1 to be a part of that action. I recommend taking Tyreek Hill.
Value Pick: DeVonta Smith (FanDuel $6600)
In his rookie season, wide receiver DeVonta Smith has caught 42 balls for 603 yards and 4 touchdowns. While these numbers are impressive for any receiver, it is even more of an accomplishment for a rookie playing on this year’s Eagles offense. On the season, Philadelphia is the 29th ranked team in pass plays per game.
With Jalen Hurts under center, the coaching staff has opted for a more run-heavy offensive scheme. Even still, DeVonta Smith has found ways to make himself at least a top 25 receiver in most statistical categories. So far, Smith has been the target of 24% of his team’s pass plays, placing him 20th among receivers.
What makes the rookie one of the best sleeper picks of the week is his big-play ability. On the season, Smith is the 8th ranked receiver in both average target distance and deep targets. However, through 10 games, Smith and Hurts are still not clicking on all cylinders. Among receivers, the duo has 492 unrealized air yards, the 8th most in the NFL.
If DeVonta Smith is going to have a game where he puts it all together, it is likely to be this week vs the Saints. Heading into Sunday’s game, New Orleans’ defense is allowing 264.9 yards per game through the air. If the Eagles hope to pull out the win, Jalen Hurts will need to take advantage as the Saints are extremely tough against the run.
Look for DeVonta Smith to be the recipient of some extra targets, with several of them coming down the field. Throughout the season the Saints have been susceptible to the deep passing game. With their attention being placed on stopping the run, Jalen Hurts will have the opportunity to find Smith in one on one situations.
| Pass Type | Complete | Targets | Completion Percentage | Yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHORT RIGHT | 19 | 23 | 0.826087 | 205 |
| DEEP RIGHT | 6 | 14 | 0.428571 | 165 |
| SHORT LEFT | 9 | 12 | 0.750000 | 97 |
| DEEP LEFT | 4 | 9 | 0.444444 | 83 |
| DEEP MIDDLE | 2 | 3 | 0.666667 | 42 |
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