NFL Week 10: Profitable Prop Bets

November 12, 2021

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Week 9 Prop Bet Recap

Week 9 of the NFL season was tough on my prop bets, going just 1-3. Jordan Love’s first career start went about as expected, but he was still somehow able to put up more yardage than Patrick Mahomes. At this point, I will be taking the wait and see with Mahomes as it is tough to get a read on where the Chief’s offense is headed. Overall, my record for the season sits at 18-7, good for a 72% win rate. With some intriguing matchups in week 10, I look to get things back and track.

Tom Brady Over 305.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady returns off a bye week with a matchup vs. The Washington Football Team. In his last game, Brady threw for 375 yards and 4 touchdowns. Despite dropping the contest to the Saints, this was his fourth game of the season surpassing 300 yards. As a testament to the type of year he is having, his week eight performance was only his 4th highest passing total this season.

So far, Brady has surpassed this week’s prop line of 305.5, in 50% of his game. When taking into account the level of his defensive competition, at age 44, he is averaging 76 yards per game above expectation.

This season, the Washinton Football Team defense is giving up 286 yards per game through the air. Opposing quarterbacks have had no problem completing passes down the field as the team is ranked 26th in yards per pass (7.6). Based on Tom Brady’s range of outcomes, by his standards, he could have a “bad game” and still approach 300 yards vs. this defensive unit.

With two weeks to prepare for this game, I expect Brady and Bucs to come out firing on all cylinders. I will be taking Tom Brady to surpass his player prop of 305.5 passing yards.

Player	This Weeks Line	Over%	Passing Yards In Average Game	Average Game Over%	Passing Yards In Great Game	Great Game Over%	Passing Yards In Bad Game	Bad Game Over%	+- Projected Yards
Tom Brady	305.5	50.0	331.25	50.0	379.0	25.0	278.0	62.0	76.083333

Tom Brady Cumulative Stats And Range Of Outcomes

Justin Herbert Over 290.5 Passing Yards

Heading into his week 10 matchup with the Vikings, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has a player prop line of 290.5 passing yards. This week’s prop sits right below his season average of 293.5. So far this year, taking Herbert to go over this number has been a 50/50 bet. An incredible statistic for a quarterback in just his second season.

Last week, Justin Herbert rebounded from two sub-standard performances by throwing for 356 yards in a win over the Eagles. In this game, a league-average quarterback was projected to throw for just 239 yards. All season, Herbert has made a habit of outperforming expectations. Given the type of defenses he has faced, the Chargers QB is averaging 52 yards per game above the output of a replacement-level quarterback.

In week 10, Herbert faces off against a Vikings defense giving up 247 pass yards per game, 16th in the NFL. Although they have done a good job limiting the completion percentage of opposing quarterbacks, their average yards per pass places them at 19th in the league.

On the season, Los Angeles’ offense is ranked 4th in the NFL in pass plays per game. This pass-heavy scheme has helped Herbert throw for a total of 2350 yards, 6th among quarterbacks. He has achieved this total while only throwing 30 “deep ball”, a figure ranking 21st at his position.

In this game, I expect the Charger’s offense to pick up right where they left off last week. Herbert’s mobility in the pocket will create opportunities for his receivers to create separation down the field, leading to several big plays. I am taking Herbert to go over his prop line of 290.5.

Player	This Weeks Line	Over%	Passing Yards In Average Game	Average Game Over%	Passing Yards In Great Game	Great Game Over%	Passing Yards In Bad Game	Bad Game Over%	+- Projected Yards
Justin Herbert	290.5	50.0	293.75	50.0	338.0	25.0	229.0	62.0	52.291667

Justin Herbert Cumulative Stats And Range Of Outcomes

Russell Wilson Under 250.5 Passing Yards

When looking back at some of my prop bet losses, there is a common thread. I need to stop betting against the Green Bay Packers defense. After the Packers lost top cornerback Jaire Alexander, I was sure that the Green Bay secondary was going to be exposed. However, week after week, they are limiting the production of some of the league’s best quarterbacks.

This week, Russell Wilson gets his chance at a Green Bay defense allowing just 201 yards per game through the air, 7th best in the NFL. So far, opposing QB’s are managing a yard/pass figure of 6.1, good for 5th among defenses.

As we head into the middle of November, player performances start to become more and more impacted by the weather. As Seattle travels to Green Bay, for the first time this season, we have the threat of snow at Lambeau Field. With an expected high of just 38 degrees, these are not ideal conditions for a quarterback coming back from a finger injury.

Russell Wilson makes his return to action, playing in the 31st ranked offense in pass plays per game. Although the team did become slightly more conservative under Geno Smith, even with Wilson under center the team prefers to keep the ball on the ground. I expect this to be even more of the case in conditions not ideal for throwing the ball.

While he was available, Wilson was averaging 239 yards per game but surpassed this week’s prop line of 250.5 at a 60% rate. In this game, I will be counting on the Packer’s defense to not suddenly flip the script as soon as I jump on board. Look for Russell Wilson to finish below 250.5 passing yards.