NFL Week 9 Ownership Recap
- Last weeks top owned receiver was Marquise Brown with an ownership average of 26%. His 20.6 points ranked him 5th among receivers.
- Jaylen Waddle was owned in 21% of DFS tournaments dissapointing owners, ranking in 17th in wide receiver fantasy points.
- Devonta Smith was the 2nd most productive DFS receiver while being owned in just 3% of cash game lineups
Davante Adams (FanDuel $8700) vs DK Metcalf (FanDuel $8000)
Green Bay Packers wide receiver makes another appearance as FanDuel’s most expensive option at his position. In week 10, Seahawks wideout DK Metcalf jumps up the salary leaderboard in anticipation of Russell Wilson’s return to action. With both teams’ QB’s coming off missing time, who is the better top-end play? Adams or Metcalf?
Do Adams And Rodgers Pick Up Where They Left Off?
No one will be happier with the thought of Aaron Rodgers being available against the Seahawks more than Davante Adams. In Jordan Love’s first career start, Adams finished with 6 catches for 42 yards and was unable to find the endzone. Even though the veteran receiver ended with a healthy 14 targets, in their post-game interviews, both Love and Adams pointed to a lack of chemistry. If chemistry is another word for accuracy then I agree. After watching the game, it appeared the substandard performance had more to do with Jordan Love being unable to hit an open receiver than being on the same page.
Although Adams is set to once again be catching balls from the reigning MVP, it is coming on three weeks since he last caught a pass from Rodgers. The last time the two players were on the same field, Adams had 6 receptions for 76 yards in a win over the Washington Football Team. Heading into their game with Seattle, the question is whether they will jump right back into being one of the most lethal combinations in the league?
The statistics show that if there is any rust, Rodgers and Adams will shake it off by brute force. Among NFL wide receivers, Davante Adams leads the league in target share, being the recipient of 35% of his team’s targets. Even with missing a game due to COVID, the veteran wideout is 3rd in the NFL in receptions and 4th in overall yardage. He also has one of the more favorable matchups of the week, facing off against a Seahawks secondary giving up 273 yards per game, 28th in the NFL.
Metcalf Held Down The Fort Without Wilson
After the news broke that Rusell Wilson was going to miss multiple weeks with an injured finger, DK Metcalf was immediately written off as a viable fantasy option. No one expected him to maintain such steady production with Geno Smith under center. However, coming into week 10, Metcalf is the 8th ranked receiver in fantasy points, averaging 18.1 per game.
In the time playing with Geno Smith, Metcalf has produced 197 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. His fantasy points per game dipped only slightly from 18.56 to 17.2. In their last game against Jacksonville, the third-year receiver put up 22.3 fantasy points, just cracking the top 10 at his position. When he was still catching passes from Russell Wilson, Metcalf had just two top 10 finishes in 5 games, with his highest ranking coming week 3 against Minnesota.
With all that being said, I think it’s unfair to expect Russell Wilson to suddenly catapult Metcalf into being a top DFS receiver when that hasn’t been the case all season. On the year, Seattle is the 31st ranked team in pass plays per game. Even with Metcalfs 27.2% target share, this does not equate to the same opportunities as receivers playing in a more explosive offense. This is made evident in his 28th place rank in overall receptions.
The Verdict: Davante Adams
Even with their being concerns about Aaron Rodger’s readiness to physically compete in an NFL game, the chemistry between Rodgers and Adams is both undeniable and unstoppable. The back-shoulder throws that one week ago were being missed by a mile, will now go down for easy 15-yard completions. I recommend paying the higher price and rolling with Davante Adams.
Terry McLaurin (FanDuel $7100) vs. (Mike Williams FanDuel $6900)
When looking for receivers to fill out my DFS roster in the “value” category, my two favorite options are Terry McLaurin and Mike Williams.
Can McLaurin Take Advantage Of The Tampa Bay Secondary?
Because Terry McLaurin finds himself playing for the Washington Football team, it is easy to overlook what he has been accomplishing this season. Through eight games, McLaurin has hauled in 43 catches for 573 yards and four touchdowns, putting him on pace to set career highs in both yards per reception and fantasy points.
In terms of DFS, Terry McLaurin is the classic boom or bust candidate. On the season, he has three finishes in the top five but is also capable of setting your lineup back with a sub 10 point performance. Luckily at $7100, he is cheap enough to not completely put a DFS roster out of contention.
Like most receivers, McLaurin should only be rostered when the cards are in his favor. Week 10 should be one of those games. As long as quarterback Taylor Heinicke continues feeding McLaurin at a rate near 27%, the WFT receiver should have a big game against a Tampa Bay secondary giving up 257 yards per game.
Mike Williams Is Due For A Breakout Game
After starting the season with three straight +20 fantasy point performances, receiver Mike Williams has come back down to earth. In his last three games, he has failed to have a game of over 10 points. Even still, the fact that he plays in a Chargers offense under Justin Herbert makes his 21% target share even more valuable. On the season, LA is the 4th rated team in pass plays per game, dropping back 40 times per contest.
The sportsbooks have Justin Herberts passing yard line set at 290.5. Meaning, someone needs to be the recipient of these yards. At $6900, I’m willing to take a bet on Mike Williams. Despite his recent skid, Williams has still hauled in 33 catches for 575 yards, putting him on pace for another 1,000-yard season. Even more importantly, his 11 red-zone targets make him as good of a candidate as any to haul in a receiving touchdown.
This week he faces off with a Vikings defense giving up 247 yards per game. Even this unit has done a good job holding opposing QB’s to a low completion percentage, they are also very susceptible to deep passes. On the year, they are the 18th rated defense in yards per pass (6.9).
The Verdict: Terry McLaurin
Even though the Washington Football Team is likely to be blown out in this game, I actually see this as a positive for Terry McLaurin’s fantasy outlook. The Buccaneers should control this game from the start, forcing Taylor Heinicke to play catch up. Tom Brady and Buc’s offense should be able to score at will, increasing the number of possessions for Washington. At $7100, Terry McLaurin has the potential to finish within the top 5 in receiver fantasy points.