NFL Week 9 Ownership Recap
- Lamar Jackson had the highest combined ownership average of 26%. In cash games he was rostered in 52% of lineups.
- Dak Prescott and Jalen Hursts were 2 and 3 in average ownership, dissapointing their owners with just 19.8 and 16.6 fantasy points, respectively.
- Matt Ryan provided was the best outlier quartebrack producing 31.52 fantasy points despite being owned in under 1% of all lineups.
Josh Allen (FanDuel $8700) vs Tom Brady ($8300)
Can Josh Allen Bounce Back?
In week ten, the two most expensive DFS quarterbacks are Josh Allen and Tom Brady. Allen looks to rebound after his team’s disappointing loss to Jacksonville. While Tom Brady is coming off a bye week, looking to lead the Buccaneers to win over Washington. Which high-end quarterback is the better DFS play?
Before the Bills’ dismal performance against the Jaguars, quarterback Josh Allen had been on roll. In terms of DFS, he was coming off two straight weeks as the highest-scoring quarterback. His 11.6 point performance in week nine, came out of nowhere, disappointing fantasy owners counting on another week in the top five.
Allen will be looking to rebound against a Jets defense giving up 18.54 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. On the season New York’s secondary is allowing 274.9 yards per game through the air. 29th in the NFL. This output has come despite opposing offenses favoring to run the ball. On average, teams drop back to pass on just 57% of their plays, 12 fewest in the league.
Much of this has to do with the Jets’ inability to limit their opponent’s rushing attack. So far, their defensive unit is giving up 133.2 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. Because success in the NFL is all about taking advantage of the other team’s weakness, opponents have no need to air it out.
However, in week 10, I don’t see Buffalo being satisfied to pound the rock. On the season, the Bills are averaging 40 pass attempts per game, the third-most in the NFL. Allen has surpassed this mark in three-straight games. Meaning, there is no reason to expect a drop in opportunities.
Where Josh Allen has been extremely consistent is his ability to pick up yards with his legs. So far, he has rushed for more than 40 yards in five out of his eight games. Last week, his 50 yards on the ground helped prop up his overall point total.
Tom Brady Enters Well Rested
At 44 years of age, Tom Brady continues to amaze, as his 2650 passing yard put him on pace to set a career-high. Through eight games, the Super Bowl MVP already has thrown 25 touchdowns. This output has him currently sitting as the top-rated DFS quarterback. In an era where being able to scramble for yards is key to DFS consistency, Tom Brady continues to get the job done in his own way.
Before the bye week, Tampa Bay was handed its second loss of the season to the New Orleans Saints. Despite throwing two interceptions, Brady still managed to put up 27.2 fantasy points. Amazingly, his 375 yards passing was just his fourth-highest total of the season. The veteran quarterback also added another four-touchdown performance to his game log.
This week, Brady and Bucs face off against a Washington Football Team with a defense giving up an NFL high 24.81 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. A lot of this can be traced back to them also being the worst team at defending the pass. On average, opposing quarterbacks throw for 286 yards per game. When taking into account the level of his defensive competition, this year, Tom Brady is averaging 75 yards per game above expectation. Simple math would suggest, he is in line for yet another +300 yard performance.
The Verdict: Tom Brady
The key factor in deciding between Josh Allen and Tom Brady comes down to whether Brady will throw for at least 3-4 touchdowns. Passing yards alone often doesn’t win a matchup. Given that Allen has added versatility with his legs it all comes down to touchdown passes. With this in mind, I am going with Brady. There is no chance that Tampa Bay suddenly shifts to a team looking to pound the ball in from close range. Tom Brady is too good at directing defenses and seemingly always makes the right decision near the goal line.
Ryan Tannehill (FanDuel $7,400) vs. Matt Ryan (FanDuel $7300)
Further down the list of main-slate quarterback options sits Ryan Tannehill and Matt Ryan. Heading into week 10, these two players rank 11th and 12th in DFS salary at their position. Sitting ahead of them are Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson. Both are making their return to play with question marks surrounding their health. Which quarterback will be the better value play?
Who Is Ryan Tannehill Without Derrick Henry?
Heading into his matchup with the Saints, Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill has accumulated the 17th most fantasy points at his position. This season he has thrown for 2145 passing yards and 11 touchdowns. His production has come while playing in the 25th rated offense in pass plays per game. His 289 attempts place him 16th among quarterbacks.
Because last week was his first full game of the year without running back Derrick Henry, it gave us a chance to evaluate Tannehill’s fantasy relevancy moving forward. In the 28-16 win, the Titans quarterback threw for just 143 yards on 19 completions. Despite picking up two touchdowns, one throwing one passing, Tannehill finished with just 15 fantasy points.
At first glance, this appears to be a disappointing output. However. this season the Rams have held opposing quarterbacks to just 16.44 fantasy points per game, categorizing his performance as slightly below average.
Just like most quarterbacks, deciding to roster Ryan Tannehill comes down to his matchup. And this week, his matchup is about as good as it gets, facing a Saints secondary giving up 273 passing yards per game. This number ranks 27th in the NFL. In week 9, New Orleans gave up 343 yards through the air to Matt Ryan. Before that, Tom Brady lit the team up for 375 yards of his own.
Although we should not expect Tannehill to come anywhere close to these types of performances, it is easy to see him putting up at least 250 yards.
Can Matt Ryan Continuing Connecting On The Deep Ball?
Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan comes into week 10 fresh off a 343-yard performance over the Saints. In the game, Ryan only needed 30 passes to rack up 28.5 fantasy points, third-most among quarterbacks. On the season, the career-long Falcon has thrown for 2157 yards with a completion percentage of 69%.
Through eight games, Atlanta is the 10th rated offense in pass attempts per game, averaging 38 per contest. These opportunities have helped the team rank 12th in pass yards and 7th in red zone attempts. However, the story of Matt Ryan’s season has been his reluctance to push the ball down the field. So far, the Falcons are 26th in deep ball attempts and 20th in air yards.
But, as we move into the second half of the season, I expect the Falcons offense to become more explosive as Ryan has been extremely efficient with his deep-ball opportunities. Despite his limited down-field attempts, he is 9th in the NFL in completed air yards (2155). This figure shows that as opposed to relying on his receivers to pick up yards after the catch, Ryan is doing most of the work through the air.
This week, Ryan has a favorable matchup against a Dallas defense giving up 19.58 fantasy points per game to QB’s. Last week, they allowed Teddy Bridgewater to throw for 249 yards on just 19 completions. This is part of a larger trend as the team ranks 25th in opponent pass yards per game at 270.5 per contest.
The Verdict: Matt Ryan
Even though Matt Ryan’s fantasy production has been all across the board, he has performed well against the teams he is supposed to. What has limited his overall fantasy value is a lack of touchdown passes, having just one game with more than two scores. But, with a matchup against the Cowboys, I like his chances over Ryan Tannehill to pair a high yardage output with multiple touchdowns.