With the NFL 2021-2022 season set to begin, it is once again time to prepare for setting those Daily Fantasy Lineups. For many, choosing an opening week roster can feel like guesswork. But, luckily I have an extremely detailed and tested forecast model to help guide you for finding which WR1 is set to go off in week 1.
Receivers Worth Their Price
As tempting as it is to show off your NFL knowledge and find a hidden gem, week one is also a great time to rely on known commodities. Unfortunately, these players come with a hefty price tag, making their productivity even more important to winning the contest.
Even when selecting from the league’s best receiving options, it is important to find players who reliably get their opportunities to put up points. This is especially important in week one as quarterbacks will look to lean heavily on their top options.
In 2020, the average pass attempts to each team’s top wideout were 7.5 targets per game. Therefore, when looking to take a top-flight pass catcher, they should be projected to have no less than 8 balls thrown their way.
Wide Receivers Projected Over 8 Targets In Week 1
| Rank | Player | Yards Receiving | Catches | Targets | TD | Team | Opponent | Points Projected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | K.ALLEN | 96.166667 | 9.222222 | 13.055556 | 0.7 | LAC | WSH | 12.333465 |
| 1 | D.ADAMS | 104.428571 | 8.571429 | 10.785714 | 1.4 | GB | NO | 16.140701 |
| 2 | S.DIGGS | 97.562500 | 8.062500 | 10.375000 | 0.6 | BUF | PIT | 10.970270 |
| 3 | D.HOPKINS | 93.750000 | 7.562500 | 10.250000 | 0.4 | ARI | TEN | 14.345599 |
| 4 | C.RIDLEY | 92.866667 | 6.333333 | 9.600000 | 0.6 | ATL | PHI | 12.281937 |
| 5 | A.ROBINSON | 83.000000 | 6.687500 | 9.437500 | 0.4 | CHI | LAR | 7.889020 |
| 6 | T.HILL | 90.866667 | 6.000000 | 9.266667 | 1.0 | KC | CLE | 16.064148 |
| 7 | T.MCLAURIN | 81.000000 | 6.066667 | 9.000000 | 0.3 | WSH | LAC | 9.645687 |
| 8 | D.METCALF | 92.625000 | 5.562500 | 8.250000 | 0.7 | SEA | IND | 14.109213 |
| 9 | A.COOPER | 74.312500 | 6.062500 | 8.187500 | 0.4 | DAL | TB | 12.205564 |
| 10 | B.AIYUK | 70.333333 | 5.500000 | 8.166667 | 0.4 | SF | DET | 10.409854 |
| 11 | B.COOKS | 81.133333 | 5.800000 | 8.133333 | 0.4 | HOU | JAX | 11.877354 |
| 12 | R.ANDERSON | 66.411765 | 5.764706 | 8.117647 | 0.2 | CAR | NYJ | 9.780197 |
The benefits of selecting top targeted receivers are made evident as the players from the table above are projected to average 12.15 points in week one. This comes in nearly 3 points above the 2020 average for top wide receivers.
Having narrowed our week one receiver candidates down, we can then begin looking for players with favorable matchups against opposing defenses.
2020 Worst Defense Against Number 1 Wide Receivers
| Defense Team | Yards Receiving | Catches | Targets | TD | Fantasy Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ATL | 94.400000 | 6.533333 | 8.533333 | 0.466667 | 12.240000 |
| 1 | DAL | 78.421053 | 5.526316 | 8.473684 | 0.631579 | 11.631579 |
| 2 | CAR | 76.785714 | 6.357143 | 9.785714 | 0.642857 | 11.535714 |
| 3 | CLE | 72.076923 | 5.538462 | 7.923077 | 0.538462 | 10.438462 |
| 4 | DET | 85.625000 | 6.125000 | 8.062500 | 0.312500 | 10.437500 |
| 5 | BUF | 67.266667 | 4.733333 | 7.533333 | 0.600000 | 10.326667 |
| 6 | CIN | 60.000000 | 4.800000 | 7.266667 | 0.666667 | 10.000000 |
| 7 | ARI | 69.411765 | 5.058824 | 6.705882 | 0.470588 | 9.764706 |
| 8 | DEN | 62.750000 | 5.666667 | 8.666667 | 0.500000 | 9.275000 |
| 9 | CHI | 66.142857 | 5.071429 | 7.642857 | 0.357143 | 8.757143 |
| 10 | BAL | 53.357143 | 4.857143 | 7.357143 | 0.214286 | 6.621429 |
When paying top dollar for selecting a team’s top wideout, finding value for their price is dependent on the player having an above-average performance. In 2020 this happened with regularity against the teams above.
Combining this information helps identify receivers who meet the two most important criteria in projecting a big performance.
- Top Targeted Option On Team
- Favorable Matchup
The table below provides a list of players meeting this standard and are worthy of their DFS salary heading into week one.
Week 1 Top Receivers With Favorable Matchup
| Player | Yards Receiving | Catches | Targets | TD | Team | Opponent | Points Projected | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | T.HILL | 90.866667 | 6.000000 | 9.266667 | 1.0 | KC | CLE | 16.064148 | Good Matchup |
| 1 | D.HOPKINS | 93.750000 | 7.562500 | 10.250000 | 0.4 | ARI | TEN | 14.345599 | Good Matchup |
| 2 | D.METCALF | 92.625000 | 5.562500 | 8.250000 | 0.7 | SEA | IND | 14.109213 | Good Matchup |
| 3 | A.COOPER | 74.312500 | 6.062500 | 8.187500 | 0.4 | DAL | TB | 12.205564 | Good Matchup |
| 4 | B.COOKS | 81.133333 | 5.800000 | 8.133333 | 0.4 | HOU | JAX | 11.877354 | Good Matchup |
| 5 | B.AIYUK | 70.333333 | 5.500000 | 8.166667 | 0.4 | SF | DET | 10.409854 | Good Matchup |
| 6 | R.ANDERSON | 66.411765 | 5.764706 | 8.117647 | 0.2 | CAR | NYJ | 9.780197 | Good Matchup |
Receivers To Avoid In Week 1
One DFS strategy that should be avoided at all costs is blindly selecting a wide receiver because they are expensive or coming off a big game. A receiver’s opportunities and matchups are the two best indicators of performance. In week 1, some wide receivers will be negatively affected by this principle, leaving those who select them feeling sorry.
2020 Best Defenses Against Number 1 Receivers
| Defense Team | Yards Receiving | Catches | Targets | TD | Fantasy Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | GB | 39.000000 | 3.600000 | 5.800000 | 0.333333 | 5.900000 |
| 1 | BAL | 53.357143 | 4.857143 | 7.357143 | 0.214286 | 6.621429 |
| 2 | LAR | 44.000000 | 4.437500 | 7.125000 | 0.375000 | 6.650000 |
| 3 | NO | 49.941176 | 3.705882 | 6.058824 | 0.294118 | 6.758824 |
| 4 | SF | 55.043478 | 4.826087 | 6.782609 | 0.260870 | 7.069565 |
| 5 | PIT | 48.250000 | 3.937500 | 6.250000 | 0.375000 | 7.075000 |
| 6 | SEA | 57.470588 | 5.352941 | 7.352941 | 0.235294 | 7.158824 |
| 7 | KC | 54.571429 | 3.928571 | 6.285714 | 0.357143 | 7.600000 |
| 8 | WSH | 56.444444 | 5.388889 | 7.111111 | 0.388889 | 7.977778 |
Week 1 Receivers With Bad Matchups
| Player | Yards Receiving | Catches | Targets | TD | Team | Opponent | Points Projected | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | E.SANDERS | 56.428571 | 4.642857 | 6.000000 | 0.4 | NO | GB | 4.481877 | Bad Matchup |
| 1 | J.LANDRY | 62.933333 | 5.133333 | 7.066667 | 0.3 | CLE | KC | 6.232354 | Bad Matchup |
| 2 | M.JONES | 66.437500 | 5.062500 | 7.250000 | 0.7 | DET | SF | 8.452335 | Bad Matchup |
| 3 | N.AGHOLOR | 58.625000 | 3.187500 | 5.125000 | 0.5 | LV | BAL | 6.022949 | Bad Matchup |
| 4 | T.HILTON | 56.733333 | 3.866667 | 6.200000 | 0.4 | IND | SEA | 5.771177 | Bad Matchup |
As week 1 of the 2021 NFL season rapidly approaches and strategies for filling out lineups are formulated, it is important to rely on sound principles. When it comes to selecting top-end wide receivers we want their DFS salary to be money well spent. In 2021 don’t simply avoid a high price tag and fall into the trap of bargain shopping. Head back on over and get your weekly position by position guide to drafting your DFS lineup.
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