NFL Divisional Round DFS: Quarterback Cheat Sheet

NFL Divisional Round DFS- Quarterback Cheat Sheet

As we head into the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, there is no shortage of big-name quarterbacks to use in your DFS lineup.

Over at FanDuel, Bills quarterback, Josh Allen enters as this week’s most expensive option costing $8,800 in DFS capital. Right behind him is Patrick Mahomes at $8,500. Is it worth it to pay up for the top-end talent? Or, is there value further down the board?

Is This Josh Allen’s Statement Game?

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has now led his team to the playoffs in three-straight seasons, putting together a record of 3-2. So far, Allen has been up and down in post-season action but has an opportunity to get some revenge after losing to Kansas City in last year’s AFC Championship.

If Buffalo is going to move on to their second straight AFC Title Game, they will need a big-time performance from their star quarterback. Throughout the year, the Bills have leaned heavily on Allen as he ranks 5th in the NFL in pass plays per game (38.7). This figure comes even with the team having played with a lead more than any other group in the league. However, with the current point spread sitting at -2 in favor of Kansas City, I don’t anticipate either team feeling too comfortable, and switching to a run-heavy scheme.

In terms of fantasy production, there has not been a better producing quarterback than Josh Allen, averaging 24.6 FPTS per contest. A key part of Allen’s fantasy success has come from his ability to hurt defenses through the air and with his legs. On the year, the 4th year QB racked up a career-high 763 rush yards. His talent was on full display in their most recent win over New England as Allen racked up 66 yards on the ground to go along with his 308 yards 5 touchdowns passing performance. This output was even more impressive in that it came against a Patriots defense who had given up the second-fewest passing yards during the regular season.

This week, Allen and the Bills offense will take on Kansas City secondary giving up 248 yards per game through the air, the 6th most in the league. A key reason for the Chief’s defensive struggles is their inability to pressure the quarterback, generating the 4th fewest sacks in the NFL. If this unit is unable to come up with its best performance of the year, Allen should have no problem picking apart a below-average group of cornerbacks.

Will Mahomes Take Down The Bills Again?

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes comes into this game having just added yet another impressive playoff performance to his resume. In Kansas City’s Wild Card win over Pittsburgh, Mahomes was at the top of his game, throwing for 409 yards and 5 touchdowns on a completion percentage of 77%.

Even though Patrick Mahomes put together another outstanding statistical regular season, throwing for 4839 yards and 37 touchdowns, Mahomes and the Chief somehow seem to be flying under the radar despite having an excellent chance to represent the AFC for the third year in a row.

One reason any skepticisms surrounding Patrick Mahomes and this year’s Chiefs team is their tendency to turn the ball over. On the year, the former MVP threw 13 interceptions, including several multi-pick games. However, he did show some improvement to finish the season, avoiding an interception in his final three games.

In his matchup with the Bills, Mahomes will have to be at the top of his game as Buffalo is one of the more opportunistic defensive units in the NFL, having generated 19 interceptions during the regular season. This ability was on full display in their most recent win over New England as they intercepted Mac Jones twice.

The Verdict: Josh Allen

In a matchup of two of the most electrifying quarterbacks in the NFL, I recommend paying up for Josh Allen in your DFS lineup. Even though Patrick Mahomes appears to have curtailed some of his turnover tendencies, he is still taking on the NFL’s top-rated passing defense, giving up just 165.9 yards per game. While I don’t see Buffalo shutting down Mahomes and the Chiefs, Josh Allen’s matchup with a porous Kansas City secondary is too good to pass up.

Other Options

Looking at the injury reports and matchups of this week’s remaining teams, I strongly recommend taking either Allen or Mahomes. However, if you are looking to free up some cap space for other positions, here is the order I would go about selecting the remaining QB’s.

Matthew Stafford $7400

Even with some legitimate concerns about Mahomes track record in the playoffs and turning the ball over, I l think Stafford has a lot of upside against Tampa Bay’s secondary. Earlier this year, the Rams QB had one of his better performances of the year, throwing for 343 yards and finishing with 29.5 fantasy points.

Tom Brady $7800-

At first glance, it seems ridiculous to place Brady and his 5316 regular-season passing yards below anybody on the is list. However, Tampa Bay is dealing with some key injuries to their offensive line. However, it’s never good to have players in charge of protecting the quarterback banged up, it presents even more of a problem vs Von Miller, Aaron Donald, and the rest of the Rams defense.

Aaron Rodgers $8400

Given his high price tag and matchup with San Francisco, I was leaning towards dropping Rodgers further down the list. However, in recent seasons reigning MVP has played well in the divisional round of the playoffs vs his well-documented struggles in the NFC Championships. Even though the game-time temperature has the potential to be in the single digits, Rodgers has shown the ability to overcome cold temperatures and should be in line for a quality statistical game.

Joe Burrow $7700

Joe Burrow is coming off a thrilling win over the Las Vegas Raiders, propelling the organization’s first playoff victory in 31 years. However, I have concerns about the Bengals offensive line’s ability to hold up vs Tennessee. On the year, the Titans have complied 43 sacks, good for 9th in the NFL. On the other side, Joe Burrow has been pressured on 24% of his dropback, 5th most in the league.

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