NFL DFS Week 2: Running Back Cheat Sheet

NFL Week 2 Cheat Sheet For DFS Running Backs

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NFL DFS Week 2- Running Back Cheat Sheet

With only one week of NFL action in the books, there is already plenty of takeaways at the running back position. Players such as Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, and Alvin Kamara lived up to expectations, while Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones were major disappointments. Okay, so one week does not a season make. As always, caution yourself against using any single week boom or bust to predict future results.

The beauty of daily fantasy is having a fresh start each week and not being stuck with an injured player.

Running Back Injury Report And Impact

Josh Jacobs (LV) – OUT
-Kenyan Drake becomes the next man up. Don’t look for him to rack up carries as the Raiders are coming off a game with 56 pass attempts.

Chris Carson (SEA) – Full Participation
-This is good news for Carson, coming off a game with a solid 16 carries and 91 yards. Carson will receive most of the work in week two as backup Rashaad Penny did not participate in practice.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) – Full Participation
-Edwards-Helaire received a healthy 14 carries in week one.

D’Andre Swift & Jamaal Williams (DET)- Limited Participants
-The Lions don’t seem concerned about either player’s availability in a favorable matchup against Green Bay

Week 2 Projected Over 15 Carries

When selecting one of the top DFS running backs, it’s important to get your money’s worth in rushing attempts.

PlayerRushesTeamOpponent
0D.HENRY23.437500TENSEA
1D.COOK22.214286MINARI
2C.MCCAFFREY19.666667CARNO
4D.MONTGOMERY16.266667CHICIN

The week two running back model projects the Vikings to lean heavily on Dalvin Cook with 22 carries. This projection sits nearly 2.5 carries more than the DraftKings line of 19.5.

The model’s 23 attempts for Derrick Henry are also several rushes higher than his line of 20.5.

PlayerYards RushingRushesTDTeamOpponentPoints Projected
0N.CHUBB89.25000015.9166671.1CLEHOU22.495126
1D.COOK110.92857122.2142861.2MINARI16.868340
2C.MCCAFFREY75.00000019.6666671.7CARNO15.832983
3D.HENRY129.43750023.4375001.1TENSEA15.066733
4A.KAMARA62.00000012.2666671.1NOCAR14.062983
6D.MONTGOMERY70.40000016.2666670.6CHICIN12.512983
7C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE61.92307713.9230770.4KCBAL10.796957
8J.CONNER55.84615413.0000000.5ARIMIN10.393053
9D.SWIFT43.7500009.4166670.7DETGB9.553368
11A.EKELER53.30000011.5000000.1LACDAL7.859650
12C.CARSON56.75000011.7500000.4SEATEN7.393539
13J.WILLIAMS28.1578956.5263160.1GBDET7.286465
14D.HENDERSON42.3333339.2000000.3LARIND6.933816

Nick Chubb projects as this week top-scoring running back on the ground. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Chubb has the third-best odds to win the league’s rushing title (+650). His over/under rushing total this week is 86.5 yards. The week two running back model shows Chubb going slightly over his line. Interestingly, Draftkings has his rushing attempts set for 18.5. Nearly 2.5 carries over the model’s projection.

Defensive Units To Target When Selecting Running Backs

Sometimes when rounding out a DFS running back unit, the best you can do is take a running back with a favorable matchup. The table below shows defenses who struggle to slow down running backs.

Defense TeamYards RushingRushesTDFantasy Projection
0JAX119.020.01.017.0
1HOU100.016.01.016.0
2MIN84.017.01.015.0
3DEN71.014.01.013.0
4DET70.014.01.013.0
5BUF73.016.01.011.0

Defensive Units To Avoid When Selecting Running Backs

Defense TeamYards RushingRushesTDFantasy Projection
0LAC24.06.00.03.0
1NE36.08.00.04.0
2SF31.08.00.04.0
3SEA24.07.00.04.0
4CHI37.09.00.05.0

Week 2 Running Backs With Good Matchups

This week’s matchups present some opportunities for several running backs to rack up fantasy points. Based on 2020 data and 2021’s opening week, the model highlights 5 running backs with significant upside.

PlayerYards RushingRushesTDTeamOpponentPoints ProjectedMatchup
0N.CHUBB89.016.01.0CLEHOU22.0Good Matchup
1A.KAMARA62.012.01.0NOCAR14.0Good Matchup
3D.MONTGOMERY70.016.01.0CHICIN13.0Good Matchup
4C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE62.014.00.0KCBAL11.0Good Matchup
5J.CONNER56.013.00.0ARIMIN10.0Good Matchup

Top Scoring Week 2 Running Back Combos

In NFL DFS it is useful to think of running back selections as an overall unit. The goal is less about finding the top overall performer but having your duo beat theirs while spending less. Here are the model’s week two top running back combinations.

Running Back 1Running Back 2Combined PointsCombined Salary% Cap$/PointSalary RemainingAvg $/Player Remaining
0N.CHUBBC.MCCAFFREY40.0134131840030.746000.0416006933.0
1N.CHUBBD.COOK38.3462701760029.345900.0424007067.0
2N.CHUBBD.HENRY37.4207991640027.343800.0436007267.0
3N.CHUBBA.KAMARA36.1245241720028.747600.0428007133.0
5N.CHUBBD.MONTGOMERY35.0634131570026.244800.0443007383.0
6N.CHUBBC.CARSON29.9439681510025.250400.0449007483.0
7N.CHUBBA.EKELER29.4634131540025.752300.0446007433.0
8N.CHUBBM.SANDERS28.7205561470024.551200.0453007550.0
9N.CHUBBJ.TAYLOR28.6220671560026.054500.0444007400.0

This week I will only be looking to use Chubb in cash games as he is projected to be heavily owned for tournament play.

Cap Friendly Combos With Good Value

If you’re looking to target a top-end quarterback or wide receiver, it is a good strategy to target value with your running backs. I am a fan of the model’s top option as I see the Cowboys look for a more balanced attack in week two. This week I’m staying away from Jonathan T the Colts continue to have him split time with Nyheim Hines.

Running Back 1Running Back 2Combined PointsCombined Salary% Cap$/PointSalary RemainingAvg $/Player Remaining
0E.ELLIOTTD.SINGLETARY5.6187701310021.8233100.0469007817.0
1J.TAYLORD.SINGLETARY8.0024241280021.3160000.0472007867.0
2J.TAYLORE.ELLIOTT9.8149241470024.5149800.0453007550.0
3M.SANDERSD.SINGLETARY8.1009131190019.8146900.0481008017.0
4A.EKELERD.SINGLETARY8.8437701260021.0142500.0474007900.0
5M.SANDERSE.ELLIOTT9.9134131380023.0139200.0462007700.0
6A.EKELERE.ELLIOTT10.6562701450024.2136100.0455007583.0
7C.CARSOND.SINGLETARY9.3243251230020.5131900.0477007950.0
8C.CARSONE.ELLIOTT11.1368251420023.7127500.0458007633.0
9M.SANDERSJ.TAYLOR12.2970671350022.5109800.0465007750.0

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