With only one week of NFL action in the books, there is already plenty of takeaways at the running back position. Players such as Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, and Alvin Kamara lived up to expectations, while Derrick Henry and Aaron Jones were major disappointments. Okay, so one week does not a season make. As always, caution yourself against using any single week boom or bust to predict future results.
The beauty of daily fantasy is having a fresh start each week and not being stuck with an injured player.
Running Back Injury Report And Impact
Josh Jacobs (LV) – OUT
-Kenyan Drake becomes the next man up. Don’t look for him to rack up carries as the Raiders are coming off a game with 56 pass attempts.
Chris Carson (SEA) – Full Participation
-This is good news for Carson, coming off a game with a solid 16 carries and 91 yards. Carson will receive most of the work in week two as backup Rashaad Penny did not participate in practice.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) – Full Participation
-Edwards-Helaire received a healthy 14 carries in week one.
D’Andre Swift & Jamaal Williams (DET)- Limited Participants
-The Lions don’t seem concerned about either player’s availability in a favorable matchup against Green Bay
Week 2 Projected Over 15 Carries
When selecting one of the top DFS running backs, it’s important to get your money’s worth in rushing attempts.
| Player | Rushes | Team | Opponent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | D.HENRY | 23.437500 | TEN | SEA |
| 1 | D.COOK | 22.214286 | MIN | ARI |
| 2 | C.MCCAFFREY | 19.666667 | CAR | NO |
| 4 | D.MONTGOMERY | 16.266667 | CHI | CIN |
The week two running back model projects the Vikings to lean heavily on Dalvin Cook with 22 carries. This projection sits nearly 2.5 carries more than the DraftKings line of 19.5.
The model’s 23 attempts for Derrick Henry are also several rushes higher than his line of 20.5.
| Player | Yards Rushing | Rushes | TD | Team | Opponent | Points Projected | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | N.CHUBB | 89.250000 | 15.916667 | 1.1 | CLE | HOU | 22.495126 |
| 1 | D.COOK | 110.928571 | 22.214286 | 1.2 | MIN | ARI | 16.868340 |
| 2 | C.MCCAFFREY | 75.000000 | 19.666667 | 1.7 | CAR | NO | 15.832983 |
| 3 | D.HENRY | 129.437500 | 23.437500 | 1.1 | TEN | SEA | 15.066733 |
| 4 | A.KAMARA | 62.000000 | 12.266667 | 1.1 | NO | CAR | 14.062983 |
| 6 | D.MONTGOMERY | 70.400000 | 16.266667 | 0.6 | CHI | CIN | 12.512983 |
| 7 | C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE | 61.923077 | 13.923077 | 0.4 | KC | BAL | 10.796957 |
| 8 | J.CONNER | 55.846154 | 13.000000 | 0.5 | ARI | MIN | 10.393053 |
| 9 | D.SWIFT | 43.750000 | 9.416667 | 0.7 | DET | GB | 9.553368 |
| 11 | A.EKELER | 53.300000 | 11.500000 | 0.1 | LAC | DAL | 7.859650 |
| 12 | C.CARSON | 56.750000 | 11.750000 | 0.4 | SEA | TEN | 7.393539 |
| 13 | J.WILLIAMS | 28.157895 | 6.526316 | 0.1 | GB | DET | 7.286465 |
| 14 | D.HENDERSON | 42.333333 | 9.200000 | 0.3 | LAR | IND | 6.933816 |
Nick Chubb projects as this week top-scoring running back on the ground. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Chubb has the third-best odds to win the league’s rushing title (+650). His over/under rushing total this week is 86.5 yards. The week two running back model shows Chubb going slightly over his line. Interestingly, Draftkings has his rushing attempts set for 18.5. Nearly 2.5 carries over the model’s projection.
Defensive Units To Target When Selecting Running Backs
Sometimes when rounding out a DFS running back unit, the best you can do is take a running back with a favorable matchup. The table below shows defenses who struggle to slow down running backs.
| Defense Team | Yards Rushing | Rushes | TD | Fantasy Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | JAX | 119.0 | 20.0 | 1.0 | 17.0 |
| 1 | HOU | 100.0 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 |
| 2 | MIN | 84.0 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 15.0 |
| 3 | DEN | 71.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 |
| 4 | DET | 70.0 | 14.0 | 1.0 | 13.0 |
| 5 | BUF | 73.0 | 16.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 |
Defensive Units To Avoid When Selecting Running Backs
| Defense Team | Yards Rushing | Rushes | TD | Fantasy Projection | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | LAC | 24.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| 1 | NE | 36.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| 2 | SF | 31.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| 3 | SEA | 24.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| 4 | CHI | 37.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 |
Week 2 Running Backs With Good Matchups
This week’s matchups present some opportunities for several running backs to rack up fantasy points. Based on 2020 data and 2021’s opening week, the model highlights 5 running backs with significant upside.
| Player | Yards Rushing | Rushes | TD | Team | Opponent | Points Projected | Matchup | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | N.CHUBB | 89.0 | 16.0 | 1.0 | CLE | HOU | 22.0 | Good Matchup |
| 1 | A.KAMARA | 62.0 | 12.0 | 1.0 | NO | CAR | 14.0 | Good Matchup |
| 3 | D.MONTGOMERY | 70.0 | 16.0 | 1.0 | CHI | CIN | 13.0 | Good Matchup |
| 4 | C.EDWARDS-HELAIRE | 62.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | KC | BAL | 11.0 | Good Matchup |
| 5 | J.CONNER | 56.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | ARI | MIN | 10.0 | Good Matchup |
Top Scoring Week 2 Running Back Combos
In NFL DFS it is useful to think of running back selections as an overall unit. The goal is less about finding the top overall performer but having your duo beat theirs while spending less. Here are the model’s week two top running back combinations.
| Running Back 1 | Running Back 2 | Combined Points | Combined Salary | % Cap | $/Point | Salary Remaining | Avg $/Player Remaining | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | N.CHUBB | C.MCCAFFREY | 40.013413 | 18400 | 30.7 | 46000.0 | 41600 | 6933.0 |
| 1 | N.CHUBB | D.COOK | 38.346270 | 17600 | 29.3 | 45900.0 | 42400 | 7067.0 |
| 2 | N.CHUBB | D.HENRY | 37.420799 | 16400 | 27.3 | 43800.0 | 43600 | 7267.0 |
| 3 | N.CHUBB | A.KAMARA | 36.124524 | 17200 | 28.7 | 47600.0 | 42800 | 7133.0 |
| 5 | N.CHUBB | D.MONTGOMERY | 35.063413 | 15700 | 26.2 | 44800.0 | 44300 | 7383.0 |
| 6 | N.CHUBB | C.CARSON | 29.943968 | 15100 | 25.2 | 50400.0 | 44900 | 7483.0 |
| 7 | N.CHUBB | A.EKELER | 29.463413 | 15400 | 25.7 | 52300.0 | 44600 | 7433.0 |
| 8 | N.CHUBB | M.SANDERS | 28.720556 | 14700 | 24.5 | 51200.0 | 45300 | 7550.0 |
| 9 | N.CHUBB | J.TAYLOR | 28.622067 | 15600 | 26.0 | 54500.0 | 44400 | 7400.0 |
This week I will only be looking to use Chubb in cash games as he is projected to be heavily owned for tournament play.
Cap Friendly Combos With Good Value
If you’re looking to target a top-end quarterback or wide receiver, it is a good strategy to target value with your running backs. I am a fan of the model’s top option as I see the Cowboys look for a more balanced attack in week two. This week I’m staying away from Jonathan T the Colts continue to have him split time with Nyheim Hines.
| Running Back 1 | Running Back 2 | Combined Points | Combined Salary | % Cap | $/Point | Salary Remaining | Avg $/Player Remaining | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | E.ELLIOTT | D.SINGLETARY | 5.618770 | 13100 | 21.8 | 233100.0 | 46900 | 7817.0 |
| 1 | J.TAYLOR | D.SINGLETARY | 8.002424 | 12800 | 21.3 | 160000.0 | 47200 | 7867.0 |
| 2 | J.TAYLOR | E.ELLIOTT | 9.814924 | 14700 | 24.5 | 149800.0 | 45300 | 7550.0 |
| 3 | M.SANDERS | D.SINGLETARY | 8.100913 | 11900 | 19.8 | 146900.0 | 48100 | 8017.0 |
| 4 | A.EKELER | D.SINGLETARY | 8.843770 | 12600 | 21.0 | 142500.0 | 47400 | 7900.0 |
| 5 | M.SANDERS | E.ELLIOTT | 9.913413 | 13800 | 23.0 | 139200.0 | 46200 | 7700.0 |
| 6 | A.EKELER | E.ELLIOTT | 10.656270 | 14500 | 24.2 | 136100.0 | 45500 | 7583.0 |
| 7 | C.CARSON | D.SINGLETARY | 9.324325 | 12300 | 20.5 | 131900.0 | 47700 | 7950.0 |
| 8 | C.CARSON | E.ELLIOTT | 11.136825 | 14200 | 23.7 | 127500.0 | 45800 | 7633.0 |
| 9 | M.SANDERS | J.TAYLOR | 12.297067 | 13500 | 22.5 | 109800.0 | 46500 | 7750.0 |
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