NFL DFS Week 11: Quarterback Cheat Sheet

NFL DFS Week 11- Quarterback Cheat Sheet

NFL Week 10 DFS Ownership Recap:

  • In his second game back from injury, Dak Prescott was the most owned DFS quarterback. Prescott was rostered in 43% of H2H lineups
  • Ryan Tannehill was a good tournamnet option as he was owned in under 1% of lineups, finishing in the top 10 at 18.6 points.
  • DFS contestants maintained faith in Josh Allen as he was the second most owned QB. His 21.9 points place him 3rd among QB’s.
  • DFS contestants also foresaw a bad game from Tom Brady as he didn’t crack the top 5 in ownership percentage.

Josh Allen (FanDuel $8800) vs Dak Prescott (FanDuel $8400)

In the NFL week, 11 main slate of games, Josh Allen and Dak Prescott are the two most expensive options at the quarterback position. Throughout the season, Allen has maintained a presence in the top 5, popping in and out as the most expensive QB. However, this week is one of the highest salary cap numbers we have seen Prescott be assigned.

Can Allen Perform In Back To Back Weeks?

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen enters week 11 coming off a 366-yard performance against the Jets. His two touchdown passes pushed his DFS point total to 21.9, third among QB’s for the week. If Allen had a more characteristic performance on the ground and avoided throwing an interception, he would have been even more rewarding for DFS owners.

When looking at the metrics, the Bills offense has taken a slight dip in pass plays per game, dropping down to 6th among NFL teams. However, they are still dropping back a healthy 39 times per contest. Therefore, there is not an overall change in philosophy taking place in Buffalo.

Even though a reduction in pass attempts might not come from the game plan, being that we are now in mid-November, the weather in Buffalo can take a turn for the worse. Heading into his game vs. Indianapolis, Allen will likely be playing in rainy conditions. Luckily, the forecast shows temperatures remaining in the mid-’40s, ruling out the possibility of it turning to snow. Either way, throwing the ball in rainy and windy conditions will likely force the Bills to rely more on their ground attack.

From a DFS perspective, this shouldn’t totally rule out Josh Allen as he is more than capable of picking up yards with his legs. On the season, he has five games in which he ran for over 40 yards.

This week the Bills QB will be looking to put up points against a Colts defense giving up 23 points per game, the 13th best in the NFL. On average, the defensive unit allows 249 yards through the air.

Can Dak Take Advantage Of The Chiefs Defense?

Heading into week 11, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott will be making his third straight start after returning from an ankle injury. From a team perspective, his first game back against Denver did not go as planned. But, hidden in the blowout loss was a top 10 finish in DFS points at 19.9.

Last week, Prescott had his highest fantasy ranking of the season, finishing second among QB’s with 26.3 points. In his game vs. Atlanta, the Cowboys quarterback threw for 296 yards and two touchdowns. Even though he picked up just 5 total yards on the ground, one of these attempts went for a touchdown.

This year, the Dallas offense has bounced back and forth between a team looking to air it out and a unit that pounds the rock with Ezekiel Elliot. Last week, they found a nice balance as Prescott only needed 31 attempts to throw for nearly 300 yards.

In their game against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Cowboys should be able to do whatever they want on offense. Should they choose to feed Zeke, he should find plenty of open running lanes. However, I expect Dallas to come out looking to throw the ball against a unit allowing 258 yards per game through the air. So far, the Chiefs are giving up 7.7 yards per pass, 30th in the NFL.

The Verdict: Dak Prescott

When choosing between Josh Allen and Dak Prescott, I recommend taking Prescott as his matchup vs the Chiefs is too good to pass up. Although the Cowboy’s defense is playing better, they still struggle to defend the pass. Look for Dallas and Kansas City to get caught up in a shootout. Meaning, the Cowboys will be relying on Prescott to come up with big plays through the air.

Top Value Quarterback : Can Jalen Hurts Be A Factor In The Pass Game?

Throughout the season, Jalen Hurts has quietly been a very effective DFS quarterback. At times, his salary has reflected this consistency, but as of late he is falling down the ranks among QB’s. Heading into his matchup vs. New Orleans, Hurts has a lot of value at the price tag of $7700.

Hidden in his mediocre passing stat line is a quarterback who has just one finish outside the top 10 in QB fantasy points. Because of his inability to rack up a big total through the air, he has yet to finish any higher than 4th among quarterbacks, but he has made up for that with his reliability.

Heading into his matchup with New Orleans, Hurts has one of his best chances to vie for the top spot in DFS production. So far, the Eagle’s offense has been heavily reliant on the run game. Represented by their 29th place ranking in pass plays per game. However, if they try to pound the rock vs the Saints they are in for a long game as New Orleans is the top-rated defense against the run. But, things have opened for teams when looking to pass against the team.

Even though this is not the strength of Hurts’ game if given more opportunities to drop back for passes he is more likely to make big plays whether on the ground or through the air. And, even though the overall passing yard numbers have not been there for Hurts, he has shown the willingness to take shots deep. On the season, he is 8th among quarterbacks in air yards. The issue has been his ability to convert, as his ranking drop to 18th in completed air yards.

In week 11, I am putting Jalen Hurt’s floor as a top 10 DFS quarterback with the upside to contend for the top spot. For just $7700 coming off the salary cap, I’m willing to make him my value play of the week.

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