NFL DFS Game Stacks And Leverage Edges – Week Seven

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NFL DFS Game Stacks And Leverage Edges - Week Seven

In NFL DFS, we are always looking for the best games to stack, but we are also looking for unique ways to do it. With the current state of DFS, everyone has access to not only, of course, Vegas lines which denote which games are expected to be higher scoring. We are also privy to tons of other resources from various DFS content houses. As such, we need to try to get unique while still targeting the best game environments. Here I will highlight two of the best game environments this week and how we might be able to leverage them in unique ways to gain an edge against our opponents in NFL DFS tournaments.

Chiefs @ Titans

The Chiefs/Titans game has the highest total of the week at 57 and may just be the prime game to target for DFS. After scuffling a bit through the first few games of the season, the Chiefs came out and showed who’s boss against the Football Team in week six. They look primed to continue their winning ways under Mahomes going forward and right the ship on their season.

The Titans’ defense is severely depleted due to multiple injuries in the secondary and defensive line. This should mean lots of offensive goodness for Mahomes and company. Mahomes, Hill, Hardman, and Kelce should all carry considerable ownership, as should running back Darrel Williams due to top running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire being out of commission. It is worth noting that Hill and Kelce are currently listed as questionable, although both are expected to suit up. There aren’t many ways to leverage this situation, considering that every relevant player in the passing and running game will be owned. Yet, it is such a good situation that it is hard to avoid. Particularly if you are making multiple lineups unless opting for a complete fade on high ownership basis.

The Tennessee side of this game is where things get interesting in terms of leverage. The spread on this game is relatively tight at five, although the Chiefs are big favorites. Vegas expects the Titans to keep pace, which makes this such a great game environment for DFS game stacks. Yet, it isn’t entirely easy to feel confident in any Tennessee piece outside of Derrick Henry. And even he seems less than ideal at his price considering the trailing game script if you believe the total.

A standard Mahomes/Hill/Henry “skinny game stack” (QB + WR/RB/TE + opposing WR/RB/TE)

Henry has proven this season that he is an absolute force of nature. He is likely in a league of his own as an NFL running back in 2021. He is a behemoth entity that appears to simply barrel through anything/one in his path at will. It is most definitely something to behold and may lend a lack of validity to the currently pervading “running backs don’t matter” narrative throughout the industry. Still, the Chiefs passing game stack with Henry on the other side will be the obvious way to play this game. There is reason to look elsewhere for that reason alone.

A.J. Brown is the other Tennessee piece likely to gain a fair amount of ownership in game stacks. He comes with a questionable tag, as does fellow wideout Julio Jones. Jones projects for little to no traction throughout the industry. Sentiment among sports and DFS enthusiasts seems to be that he is essentially dust. I’m not sure if we should buy into this narrative entirely despite his previous struggles when dealing with injuries. Because both he and Brown are questionable, perhaps the ownership gap shouldn’t be as significant as it is. Playing this game stack with a Titans wideout rather than Henry as a bring-back may be a decent way to play this game stack more uniquely. Playing a full Tannehill passing stack rather than a Mahomes stack would be an even more unique way. Tannehill is getting little to no ownership despite this game being one of the more popular of the week.

Example of an opposite-team game stack to pivot away from the chalk

Football Team @ Packers

This game is not getting a lot of steam throughout the industry for game stacking, although it has one of the higher totals on the slate, approaching 50. There are reasons for this: 2021 DFS favors running quarterbacks, and Aaron Rodgers is not that. Taylor Heinicke has been better than expected this year, but no one is in any hurry to play him. In the end, Green Bay wide receiver stud Davante Adams and Washington tight end value Ricky Seals-Jones may be the only players in this game to gain much ownership.

At the bare minimum, correlating these two chalky plays with a secondary game stack is an excellent step toward playing these optimal plays in a good game environment in a correlative manner. All while taking care of a less than ideal tight end position. Yet, despite the lack of upside that these quarterbacks may appear to offer, we may want to consider a full game stack here with Rodgers or Heinicke passing stacks and a bring back. Industry consensus acknowledges that Adams and Seals-Jones are good plays. The game has one of the higher totals on the slate, yet, both quarterbacks are projected to be low-owned, meaning that the game is being underused for game-stacking.

Taking the chalky Adams/Seals-Jones and leveraging by using a full Rodgers game-stack

An alternate way to use this game in a leveraged manner would be to play Green Bay running back Aaron Jones over the chalky other Jones in Ricky-Seals. Then play Football Team receiver Terry McLaurin as leverage off of the chalky Seals-Jones. One could also play the questionable-tag burdened Antonio Gibson as a bring-back to solo Adams for a secondary stack or Rodgers-Adams stacks. There is actually a lot of opportunity in this game to play it but get outside the chalk construction. Only two pieces are projected for much ownership, yet there is so much more there to consider.

Lower-owned leverage Jones/MacLaurin secondary mini-stack

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I'm a DFS player (JackG1111), DFS content provider, and musician.

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