That time is upon us, and the big game 2022 is on deck for this Sunday. This means vast DFS prize pools across the industry and lots of casual players getting their money in. While the top contests are enormous, there are a lot of edges to exploit, considering the number of recreational players getting in on the action. Let’s look at this game from a DFS perspective as it applies to DraftKings NFL showdown contests.
LA Rams Breakdown
On the Rams side of the ball, we have a sizable 26.25 team total, with the Rams favored by four over Cincinnati. Matthew Stafford under center may be the highest-owned player on the slate outside of top wide receiver Cooper Kupp. The Rams throw at a hefty clip but are more prone to rely on the run in play-from-ahead game scripts. If you see the Rams taking a sizable lead and playing it more conservatively, a large field GPP option would undoubtedly be a Stafford fade.
Things get a bit hairy with the Rams’ running game. There is already a somewhat ambiguous timeshare between Cam Akers and Sony Michel, although Akers is clearly the lead guy. On top of it, Darrell Henderson Jr. may return from the IR, further complicating matters. Henderson was the lead back before his injury, yet there would likely be some question marks as to what role he would step into. This may be a dicey scenario that is less than optimal for DFS. Yet, this will also mean that ownership should be lowered on these guys, making them good tournament plays. Mainly if you think the Rams play from ahead. If Henderson does not play, you could feel pretty confident in Akers, and he should be reasonably chalky. If all three are active, it becomes riskier to play any of them, but ownership will follow. We’ll have to keep a close eye on the news here.
Rams WR1 Cooper Kupp has the highest ceiling of any player on this slate by a considerable margin and should gain overwhelming ownership. Despite his hefty price tag of $11,600 (the highest of any player on the slate). The only argument not to play Kupp or even not to play him in the captain slot would be price and/or ownership. He is highly likely to be optimal here. Still, if he were to have even an average game, a fade would gain you massive leverage against the field.
Odell Beckham Jr. has taken on a prominent WR2 role in recent weeks and is highly viable here. He should come at reasonable ownership around the 25% mark. If you take a stand on a Kupp fade, it will make sense to play OBJ since he would likely benefit from Kupp having an underwhelming performance. Van Jefferson is the Rams’ WR3 and would be a salary-savings-based tournament option. Yet, he isn’t that cheap, putting him into a bit of a no man’s land. Ownership should follow, and Jefferson may be a decent option in large-field GPPs. If you wanted a complete punt in the sub-$1,000 range, Ben Skowronek may see a target or two and could pay off if he were to hit the endzone.
The tight end situation for the Rams is tenuous, with Tyler Higbee currently questionable. If he suits up, he’s a fantastic option at just $4,800, and ownership could be somewhat suppressed due to concerns with his health. If not, Kendall Blanton takes on TE1 duties, and we saw him get heavily involved in the Rams’ win against San Francisco. He’d be a popular and highly viable choice at just $4,600.
There will be an influx of casual DFSers playing the SuperBowl slate. I would, in turn, expect to see ownership on the Rams’ DST and kicker Matt Gay lower than it likely should be. People underestimate how much a kicker can play into a sizable team total. If the Rams are to hit that total, Gay may be highly involved. He may also outscore any position player in his low price range. The Rams’ DST is very intriguing, considering the mismatch between their defensive line and the Bengals’ offensive line. We could see many sacks and plenty of pressure leading to mistakes for Burrow and his cohorts. They are also very cheap at $3,400, and similarly to Gay, could easily outscore any positional player in this price range.
Cincinnati Bengals Breakdown
The Bengals are a very pass-happy team with three talented receivers. Unlike the Rams, they tend to be situation neutral in their pass rate and should be chucking regardless of game script. On top of it, they are reasonably likely to be playing from behind based on the spread. This will make Joe Burrow one of the better options on the slate. He should be close to, if not over 50% owned. On that note, there is some merit to fading in tournaments. It is just highly likely that he may be optimal even in a game that favors the Rams. He will throw, and he has a solid cast of capable targets.
Joe Mixon is pretty close to a true workhorse back in the running game. Yet, he lost some work in the passing game to Samaje Perine. The Rams run defense has been among the best in the league, and we know the Bengals are a pass-first team. If going for an optimal approach, I would be hesitant to roster Mixon at close to $10,000 on this slate. Particularly considering that ownership may be reasonably high despite his less-than-ideal matchup since his workload is pretty cemented. I would be much more prone to roster him if I expect the Bengals to play from ahead. If you think the Rams take the lead, you could definitely consider Samaje Perine as a low-owned, cheap punt play.
All three receivers for Cincinnati in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd will be popular. Yet, their respective ownerships should be capped a bit due to all three being heavily involved in the passing game. We may see none of them creep too far over 30% ownership. Chase and Higgins are certainly the top options, with Boyd being more of a cost savings-based play. I would expect Higgins to be the most popular since he is priced considerably lower than Chase and seeing similar volume. Yet, much of the field may not realize how close they are to being equal WR1s on this team, and perhaps Chase will be similarly owned. It is essentially a pick your poison situation between these three. There’s nothing wrong with playing two or all three of them (this would be an unusual construction for large-field GPPs), particularly in lineups featuring Joe Burrow. I’d keep an eye on last-minute ownership projections throughout the industry and play accordingly in large field GPPs.
If he can suit up, C.J. Uzomah (questionable) at tight end is a solid play at just $4,400. His involvement in the offense when healthy is relatively significant, and he offers an excellent source of savings. His questionable tag is also likely to lower his ownership. Drew Sample likely takes on TE1 duties if he can’t play, but he is priced just below Uzomah yet unlikely to see the same workload. This makes him a suboptimal play but possibly a decent tournament choice.
The Bengals DST is a good source of salary relief at $3,200 and should see very low ownership. It should be a good bit lower than the Rams DST, and this is likely warranted. However, Stafford does have a tendency to throw interceptions. They are probably not an optimal play but make sense as a tournament option. Kickers are always viable in showdowns, and Evan McPherson can be considered for just $4,000.
Conclusion
More than ever, we will have to try to get different if we are playing the largest field NFL showdown GPPs. Leaving salary on the table is a good start. We will want to consider fading one or more of the higher-owned players (Kupp, Stafford, Burrow, Mixon). Playing a low-owned captain is always viable. We’ll also need to look at unusual and counterintuitive constructions unlikely to be used by much of the field. We are playing to reach first in these big contests, and we can’t be playing the same lineups as everyone else. It is probably too obvious of a build if it makes too much sense. The goal in these contests is to create a legitimate win equity lineup that is just unappealing enough that others are less likely to play it. Don’t be afraid to get weird. The NFL is highly unpredictable, and expecting the unexpected can be our best friend in these big NFL showdown tournaments.
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