NFL DFS Breakdown For DraftKings And FanDuel – Saturday Slate

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NFL DFS Breakdown For DraftKings And FanDuel - Saturday Slate

For the last week of NFL season, we have a two-game Saturday slate with massive prize pools on DraftKings and FanDuel, including a million dollars up top in the big DraftKings NFL GPP. We’ll have to get creative with playing this slate to rise to the top of these large-field contests. Let’s look into both games and how we might approach them from a DFS perspective.

KC (28) @ DEN (17)

In terms of seeding, Kansas City has something to play for here, while the Broncos are out of contention. We do not anticipate Denver resting their starters, yet we can’t know for sure how they will handle the situation.

Ownership projections have not been updated throughout the industry. Still, it stands to reason that Patrick Mahomes and his two big weapons in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce should be popular this week on DraftKings and FanDuel. Kansas City has the highest team total on the slate and motivation to win this game. I would also expect to see KC running back Darrel Williams be somewhat owned as the Chiefs’ clear RB1 in a game where they should handle business with ease.

I doubt that ancillary receivers Byron Pringle or Mecole Hardman will see a ton of ownership. Playing one or the other in stacks with Mahomes and Kelce or Hill may be a decent differentiation option if running the Chiefs side of this game.

The Kansas City defense will likely be quite popular here against a Drew Lock-led Broncos squad that will probably struggle offensively. They are also the highest-priced defense on both sites. There is certainly some merit to a tournament fade here.

I would assume that the entire Denver team will be low-owned across the board. The running back time-share between Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams is less-than-ideal. There isn’t much appeal in rostering a receiver with Drew Lock under center. Drew Lock at QB is a poor DFS option and should not see much ownership.

In terms of pure tournament leverage, I see merit to playing a piece or two from Denver, particularly on the other side of KC stacks. Despite the time-share, Gordon or Williams can always spike an upside game. Denver also has multiple capable pass-catchers in Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and tight-ends Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam. All should come at low enough ownership and can be considered in tournaments.

A Drew Lock stack would be utterly off-the-board and unlikely to succeed but would come at very low ownership on a two-game slate. It would also be very cheap and enable you to pay up for the rest of your lineup. Crazier things have happened.


DAL (24) @ PHI (19.5)

Two-game slates are always interesting in terms of ownership getting very condensed. It can be hard to find ways to get unique and make leveraged NFL lineups for large-field tournaments. It is even more difficult this week. Philadelphia is one of the couple teams that are likely to rest many of their starters. At least for part of the game, even if they suit up. On the other hand, Dallas has reason to win this game, although not super significant.

At the moment, no one is officially resting, but we would expect Philadelphia to be cautious with their starters. Dallas, it seems, will most likely do what they can to win this one. It will be interesting to see what ownership looks like considering the concerns with motivation and rest.

If this was a typical game, both quarterbacks in Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts would be popular options. Due to the situation, I would anticipate Prescott picking up considerable ownership. At the same time, much of the field may shy away from Hurts.

The running game is highly muddy here as Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard continue to operate in a time-share. There could be some reason to believe that they lean on Pollard more considering the situation and that Elliott has battled nagging injury all year. The Philadelphia scenario is even murkier. Top running back Miles Sanders has already been ruled out, while backups Boston Scott and Jordan Howard are both questionable. If one sits, the other may become a desirable option. If both play, it is an uncertain time-share. If neither suits up, Kenneth Gainwell and Corey Clement become relevant values for DFS.

CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper should be pretty popular pieces in the Cowboys’ receiving game, and Dalton Schultz is always viable at tight-end. Cedrick Wilson looks to be stepping into a WR3 role in the absence of Michael Gallup. He will serve as a decent salary savings option.

Philadelphia’s passing game is difficult to trust due to lack of volume. At the tight-end position, Dallas Goedert (questionable) may get some ownership as a cheaper option than Kelce. DeVonta Smith is a decent choice at WR, considering the sheer lack of options, especially if using Jalen Hurts. Ancillary receivers like Quez Watkins and Jalen Reagor are GPP dart throws at low price and ownership at best.

The Dallas defense should likely be pretty popular on this slate. Playing the Denver or Philadelphia DST could be a prudent GPP move if one outscores the KC/DAL DSTs. You can still play the DEN or PHI DST and play plenty of players against them on a two-game slate. A simple pick-six could do the trick even if the KC/DAL offenses succeed and win their games.


Conclusion

Two-game slates are tough enough, but this one is even weirder with concerns regarding motivation and players resting. Kansas City (playing for number one seed) should likely be the most popular team due to this reason. Dallas will likely follow. The Broncos are unlikely to get much going regardless of motivation or game plan and should be owned accordingly. They may or may not rest anyone, but they just aren’t good offensively with Drew Lock under center and have the lowest team total on the slate. Their offense is also fairly spread out, even if you did want to take a shot on a Denver piece. The Eagles are the weirdest one here as they are likely to fully or partially rest some guys, yet, we have to roster someone. The safe bet would be to focus mainly on KC/DAL players, but this is what the majority of the field will likely do.

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I'm a DFS player (JackG1111), DFS content provider, and musician.

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