NFL Conference Championship Weekend: Bengals vs Chiefs Prop Bets

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NFL Conference Championship Weekend- Bengals vs Chiefs Prop Bets

As we get closer to the kickoff of the NFL Conference Championship games, we are all hoping that this weekend’s action is as exciting as the Divisional Round. With every contest ending in a walk-off fashion, we can expect each team to be brimming with confidence as look to advance to the Super Bowl.

With the slate of games now condensed to just two, there is an excellent opportunity to take a deep dive into the matchups in hope of having a profitable weekend. Although few people predicted Jimmy Garrapolo or Joe Burrow to be the ones joining Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford, they still provide excellent betting opportunities on the prop market.

Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes enters his matchup vs the Bengals looking to make his third straight Super Bowl appearance. Just to get to this game, Mahomes needed a heroic overtime effort at the end of regulation to force overtime. With Kansas City winning the coin flip, the Chiefs quarterback calmly led his team to the endzone, setting up a matchup vs Cincinnati.

When looking back to his week 17 performance vs the Bengals, Mahomes threw for 259 yards while completing 26 of his 35 attempts. This output was tied for his 5th lowest total of the season. Even though he was fairly efficient with his attempts and avoided throwing an interception, the Bengals were able to hold Mahomes in check by pressuring him in the pocket and avoiding giving up multiple big plays down the field. Despite not coming up with a single sack, the unit forced 5 hurried throws. An above-average performance compared to their usual rate of 3 per game.

Heading into the game, Patrick Mahomes has a player prop of 289.5 passing yards. On the year, the Chiefs quarterback is averaging 291 yards per game but has surpassed this week’s line in just 33% of his outings. However, it would be a mistake too much emphasis on Mahomes early season performances as he comes into this game playing his best football of the year.

Just looking at the numbers, through the first 12 weeks of the season, Mahomes averaged 280 yards per game through the air. From then on, he is putting up just under 310 yards per game. In addition, he has been a much better job taking care of the football compared to his early-season turnover streak.

If you are looking to place some prop bets on Patrick Mahomes, I recommend taking him to go over both his passing yard prop of 289.5 yards as well as his touchdown prop of 2.5 TD’s.

Joe Burrow

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow comes into this game with a chance to will his team to a Super Bowl appearance in just his first full season. Like his counterpart, the Bengals QB enters his matchup with Kansas City on top of his game. Over his past six outings, Burrow is averaging 344 yards per game through the air.

If there were any questions about Burrow’s ability to perform under pressure in the playoffs, it was laid to rest as the former top draft pick threw for 348 yards vs Tennesee. This output came despite facing relentless pressure as he was sacked 9 times.

Heading into the AFC Conference Championship game, Joe Burrow should benefit from knowing that he has already willed his team to a victory vs these same Kansas City Chiefs. In week 17, led by his 446 yards 4 touchdown performance, Burrow and the Bengals took down the Chiefs by the score of 34 to 31.

Although projecting this week’s game based on previous meetings is never a perfect indicator, we do know that Cincinnati’s offensive line play will be a key factor in this week’s outcome. In the first matchup between these two teams, Joe Burrow was sacked 4 times and hurried on an additional two attempts. As the season has progressed, Cincinnati opponents have looked to take advantage of one of the weaker offensive lines in the NFL through the blitz. Look for Kansas City to continue with this trend as they are one of the more blitz-heavy teams in the league.

When looking to take a player prop bet on Joe Burrow, I see him once again facing a lot of pressure in the pocket. However, because this is nothing new for the Bengals star quarterback, look for him to take advantage of Kansas City having fewer players in coverage for some big plays down the field to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But, I also see this pressure leading to opportunities for the Chiefs to come up with an interception. For this game, I will be taking Burrow to surpass his yardage prop of 287.5 and for him to throw at least one interception at -144.

Receiving Props

In addition, to profiting on prop bets surrounding this game’s quarterback matchup, there are also some excellent opportunities with the wide receivers. On the Cincinnati side of the ball, Ja’Marr Chase has a receiving prop of 85.5 receiving yards. I recommend taking the rookie receiver to go over this total. Throughout the season, Chase has been his QB’s most trusted option, receiving 23% of his team’s passing targets. Knowing that Burrow is likely to be facing blitzes all night long, I expect him to turn to his favorite target early and often. On the season, Kansas City is ranked 16th in the NFL in passing yards allowed to number one wideout’s at 66 yards per game. However, there are only a handful of receivers as explosive as Ja’Marr Chase. Look for the Chiefs to give up at least one big play to the Chase and Burrow connection.

On the other side, Tyreke Hill has an over-under prop of 76.5 receiving yards. On the season, the Bengals finished 17th in pass yards allowed to number one wide receiver’s at 69 yards per contest. During the regular season, Patrick Mahomes target Hill for the 9th most deep targets in the NFL. Kansas City’s number one receiver also finished 6th in target rate at 29%. In his first matchup vs Cincinnati, Hill ended with a disappointing performance of just 40 yards receiving. However, this low output wasn’t from a lack of opportunity as he was targeted for 145 “air yards”, one of his highest totals of the season. I expect this AFC Championship game to feature a lot of offense, with Tyreke Hill playing a large role in the outcome. Look for the veteran wideout to go over his line of 76.5 receiving yards.

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