This article is the first in a series of four that will compare the expected win totals from The Professor’s model to Win Total numbers posted at DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbooks.
The table below shows the model’s Expected Win numbers in the “The Professor” column. This is calculated by summing each team’s points for and points against in the 17 game simulations and putting those values into the Pythagorean Expectation formula. “The Professor” column also lists the number of games each team is favored in over the projected season. For comparison, the current Win Total numbers are listed in the DraftKings and FanDuel columns.
This article will address three takeaways: an opportunity on the Carolina Panthers under, the edges on the Chicago Bears and New York Jets unders, and why the “Games Favored” number is a reason to pass on the Detroit Lions and Houston Texans overs….
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Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.
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