NBA DFS Tournament Breakdown – 10/25/2021

NBA DFS Tournament Breakdown - 10:25:2021

Boston (112.25) @ Charlotte (111.25)

We will have to monitor the health of the currently questionable Jaylen Brown throughout the day for Boston. If he misses, Jayson Tatum becomes a smash play on DraftKings and FanDuel alike due to increased usage. He mainly stands out on DraftKings at just $8,700. If Brown and Tatum both play, Tatum becomes a worse but still viable play due to decreased usage. Brown himself could be a sneaky tournament play if he does indeed suit up, but we would have to consider his minutes coming off of injury. Robert Williams III offers positive value at the center position. While Dennis Schroder likely enters the starting lineup again if Brown misses, this doesn’t necessarily benefit his DFS outlook usage-wise. He is then playing more minutes with the starting group, likely leading to decreased usage.

There is more DFS production on the Charlotte side to go around on across the board with “Scary” Terry Rozier sidelined due to an ankle injury. He is currently questionable, so just like with Brown, we do need to monitor his status. If Rozier plays, he could be an under-owned tournament option dependent on his minute restriction. He will also eat into the value for his teammates. Assuming Rozier doesn’t play, for the moment, LaMelo ball is always playable. Still, the price tag is getting high enough on both sites that the value is not really there, considering he is getting less than 30 minutes a night. He still offers great production potential every time he takes the court. The best value for Charlotte is with Gordon Hayward and Kelly Oubre due to their lower price tags. Miles Bridges has been balling out this season beyond expectation. Still, his price tag is high for his historical production potential.

Do keep in mind that this game is back-to-back for both teams. There is the potential for players to generally be sluggish, play fewer minutes, or for someone to unexpectedly sit, which would open up more usage and minutes for other players. Charlotte is a generally faster team and is more likely to be hampered by the back-to-back.

Milwaukee (116.5) @ Indiana (114)

We are unlikely to see Jrue Holiday in this game as he is currently listed as doubtful. This means more usage potential for Khris Middleton. We all know that regardless of the players around him, Giannis Antetokounmpo dominates the usage on this team. He is playable every night, and Jrue sitting only makes him more viable. The only reason not to play him is price tag and ownership leverage if he is favored over other high-priced studs. Pat Connaughton has been playing many minutes and offers solid value with Jrue out, as does Grayson Allen. Bobby Portis is currently questionable. If he plays, Jordan Nwora will likely lose DFS value, although we can’t be sure how his presence will affect rotations.

For Indiana, Domantas Sabonis offers excellent value for his price due to his extreme upside. Chris Duarte continues to see a lot of minutes and is consistently involved in the offense with Caris LeVert out due to injury. Myles Turner presents some value, although his minute upside tends to be capped. You can always play Malcolm Brogdon, but at his current price, he doesn’t project as a particularly excellent value tonight in a tough matchup. Jeremy Lamb is an extreme fringe value option if you really need the savings.

Detroit (101) @ Atlanta (112.5)

This year, Detroit is terrible, and the only viable DFS pieces playing consistent minutes are Jerami Grant and Saddiq Bey. You could play either, notably Grant, and Grant does offer some excellent value at his $6,300 price tag on DK.

For Atlanta, Trae Young is a stud and is always viable despite being somewhat inconsistent. He may be a low-owned tournament play and can always go off. We do have some blowout concerns in this game and would have to hope it would stay close. If playing Trae, I’d likely be sure to play Grant or Bey on the other side. Clint Capela has been on a minutes restriction, and John Collins has yet to crack 30 minutes, nor has Bogdan Bogdanovic. Other than Trae, the most viable DFS pieces here are De’Andre Hunter for his solid minutes at his $4,500 price tag on DK and possibly Cam Reddish. He’s a fringe value piece, mainly if you think the game blows out. He could run into a few more minutes.

Washington (111) @ Brooklyn (118)

The pivotal piece here is whether or not Bradley Beal plays for Washington. He’s currently listed as questionable, and if he plays, he becomes a good play dependent on minutes expectation. If Beal does not go, Spencer Dinwiddie and Kyle Kuzma become two of the best plays on the slate, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope offers good value at his price. If he does play, it changes the outlook for his teammates considerably. Montrezl Harrell is likely to continue getting his 25-ish minutes a game regardless of Beal’s status and presents some decent value with upside at his price.

Brooklyn’s usage is dominated by Durant and Harden, and the minutes on their role players are spread out. The only other genuinely viable piece is Joe Harris, and his price on FanDuel is offering good value at just $4,400. Nicolas Claxton could be feasible with his talent and upside, but the minutes just aren’t there. Besides a possible flier on Harris, I’d basically play one of Harden or Durant if playing Brooklyn players and move on.

Orlando (99.75) @ Miami (112.75)

Orlando is on a back-to-back and has a total of less than 100. They aren’t an excellent team. All of their key pieces did get significant minutes on Sunday and come at decent price tags. We saw what Cole Anthony is capable of with his epically fantastic fantasy performance on Sunday, and his price tag really stands out on FanDuel at just $4,900. However, since their key guys played significant minutes on Sunday in their win against the Knicks, it is hard to trust the minutes or production in this tough matchup against Miami. I’d be more inclined to take a shot on some of these guys wherever their prices/ownership is low between DK and FD. I’d also play Miami players on the other side, hoping for a closer game than Vegas anticipates.

Kyle Lowry is currently questionable and could sit for Miami. This would make Tyler Herro a more viable play at his price. It could also make Duncan Robinson somewhat of an option. For the most part, Miami is the Jimmy Butler/Bam Adebayo show, particularly with Lowry out. Neither are cheap, and both eat into each other’s usage. Still, they aren’t priced up with the highest level studs and are playable basically any night of the week. With Lowry out, they would be more viable. There is so much potential for a blowout here that if I played a Butler or Adebayo, I would strongly consider running it back with a piece from Orlando.

Chicago (107) @ Toronto (105.5)

No one really stands out in Chicago as a great play here. Not because they aren’t all good players. They just have too many mouths to feed with all of Lonzo Ball, DeMar DeRozan, Zach Lavine, and Nikola Vucevic on the court. At their prices, no one is going to pop point-per-dollar-wise. As we’ve seen so far this season, any of them can have a big game, but it is hard to zero in on any one of them.

For Toronto, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Scottie Barnes are the only definitively fantasy-viable pieces for tournaments. Barnes offers the best value at his price on FanDuel. It is worth noting that the shot volume has been there for Anunoby and VanVleet. With more efficiency, they could have put up big performances in their previous games this season. Precious Achiuwa does have a lot of upside for his price if he performs and minutes trend upward. Nothing really stands out, but all of these pieces are playable, mainly if ownership is low.

New Orleans (110.25) @ Minnesota (115.75)

For New Orleans, Jonas Valanciunas stands out as the best play on both sites. On DraftKings, Devonte’ Graham offers excellent value, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker stands out more on FanDuel. Brandon Ingram is always playable, particularly with Zion Williamson out as he currently is. Still, Ingram doesn’t particularly stand out as a great play at his price point on this slate. He could be a good tournament play at low ownership for that very reason.

On the Minnesota side, Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell are always playable. Still, neither has cracked 30 minutes this season, and Russell has been unable to hit his shots. Anthony Edwards has been playing mid-30s minutes and is a viable option. On DraftKings notably, Jaden McDaniels offers excellent value at $3,500. All four of these guys are usable here at their DraftKings price points, but on FanDuel, they don’t present as good value.

Cleveland (104.5) @ Denver (115)

Cleveland is not looking too good in this game. Darius Garland is questionable. If he doesn’t play, Ricky Rubio, Collin Sexton, and Evan Mobley are more viable. Generally, regardless of Garland’s status, this isn’t a great team to target. Still, Ricky Rubio has been playing well with minutes this season and could be a play with Garland out.

With their high team total, Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., Will Barton, Aaron Gordon, and Monte Morris are all in the picture. Clearly, Jokic is in play nightly, and Porter Jr. is second on the team for extreme upside. Whether you prioritize Jokic here likely depends on whether you think the game can stay close. The other pieces come at price tags where the blowout should be less of a concern.

Portland (114) @ LA Clippers (117)

Despite this looking like a competitive game environment with a high total, it is hard to love anything on Portland outside of Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, and Jusuf Nurkic. I’d play one of Lillard/McCollum and/or Nurkic and move on. Someone could take a flier on Robert Covington and hope he hits some shots, and Nassir Little is cheap if looking for a punt play.

Reggie Jackson (on FanDuel), Terance Mann, and Luke Kennard (on DraftKings) offer good point-per-dollar value. Eric Bledsoe has been playing well, but his price is creeping up. I would keep in mind that the return of Nick Batum will eat into some of their ancillary pieces, as we’ve seen in their last game. Paul George is, of course, highly playable with Kawhi out, but his price is up there at this point. He won’t pop as a point-per-dollar value, but this is a good game environment to stack up from both sides and target if Vegas is right on the total and spread.

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