Tonight, we have a three-game NBA slate, so we will have to dig a little deeper to differentiate our lineups in large-field tournaments like the big 100K up top offerings on DraftKings and FanDuel. I will go through some of the best plays on this slate game by game.
BKN (111.25) @ DAL (107.25)
This is one of the two better games on the slate for DFS production in terms of the total. It’s always tricky with James Harden and Kevin Durant both healthy. Either could be the one to have a big game on any given night, yet both are likely not to. Imagine what it would be like if Kyrie Irving was willing to play NBA basketball?
We often see ownership shift one way or another based on pricing and positional eligibility. They are both priced about the same tonight, which means that their ownership should be pretty even. Either one or the other is likely to be optimal on this slate, but it might be a toss-up who it is. Since this is a three-game slate, there’s also a path for both to succeed. Even though it isn’t likely that both reach an actual ceiling.
LaMarcus Aldridge has become a viable piece on Brooklyn since Blake Griffin is no longer contending for minutes. He is still too cheap for a legitimate starting center’s workload on both sites. Today, he’s the Brooklyn player offering the most absolute value, and he should be pretty chalky on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
James Johnson is a reasonable value for a three-gamer on DraftKings. You could possibly look at Cameron Thomas as well. The other possibly viable pieces across DFS platforms are Patty Mills and DeAndre’ Bembry. Neither is a great play, but sometimes you have to get off the beaten path a bit on these three-game slates.
Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway Jr. are questionable for the Mavericks. Kristaps Porzingis is probable to play, so we will proceed as though he is in.
Porzingis is an outstanding play on DraftKings at $7,600 regardless of Luka or Hardaway’s status. While not great for tournament ceiling upside, Dorian Finney-Smith also stands out in terms of pure points-per-dollar value. Luka is always an option if he plays, but he is not priced particularly well for his projection on either DFS site.
If Luka sits, Jalen Brunson becomes a great play on both sites, and he also becomes viable with Hardaway Jr. out. Kristaps Porzingis also likely benefits with Luka out since he’d be the main guy carrying the offense. Reggie Bullock and, to a lesser extent, Sterling Brown could enter the fringe tournament play conversation if Hardaway Jr. sits.
NYK (106.5) @ SA (104)
Of the three games we have today, this one is the least appealing for DFS in terms of the game environment. However, we still have some options here regarding value from individual players.
The best values on DraftKings are Mitchell Robinson and Alec Burks. Derrick Rose, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley are also playable on a slate of this size. I would avoid playing all of Burks, Quickley, and Rose together for the most part since they may negatively correlate. Julius Randle can always be looked at in tournaments, but he is not priced well today.
Burks and Robinson are the only actual values on FanDuel. Still, you can take a shot in large-field tournaments on any of the other players I mentioned. Barrett and Randle are the best other options on FD if you are going there.
For San Antonio, Lonnie Walker IV, Derrick White, Jakob Poeltl, and Keldon Johnson are all looking good on DraftKings. Dejounte Murray is priced decently for his upside at $9,500, and Doug McDermott is not looking too bad at $4,000.
Jakob Poeltl and Keldon Johnson are the only real values on FanDuel. I’d be more prone to play Dejounte Murray or Derrick White if going outside the value realm on FD. Murray is always playable regardless of value with his current role in the Spurs’ offense. Lonnie Walker IV could be in some consideration as well.
BOS (108.75) @ LAL (111.25)
We have a game in LA with similar DFS potential to Brooklyn at Dallas with an almost identical total and spread. Dennis Schroder, Jayson Tatum, and Marcus Smart all present us with value on DraftKings, with Jaylen Brown likely out of the fold for the moment. Al Horford is right on the cusp of solid play status, and Josh Richardson or Grant Williams could be a cheap tournament punt. Enes Freedom, the artist formerly known as Enes Kanter, is back in our lives fighting for the cause and not playing a lot of minutes but can do a lot with them. He is in play on DK at just $3,400.
All of the same options apply to FanDuel. However, Dennis Schroder sticks out even more at his meager $5,200 tag despite generally starting for the doubtful Jaylen Brown. Horford looks a little better on FanDuel, while Tatum is a worse play based on FD pricing. I’d be less inclined to even consider Josh Richardson or Grant Williams.
The Lakers’ three-headed monster of LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook is a less-than-ideal situation for DFS. Westbrook is becoming increasingly irrelevant in this offense, although DFS ownership reflects that, as does FanDuel pricing. We could buy low on him here on a three-gamer.
If you were going to play one of even more of the Lakers stars, a short slate like this would be the time since absolute ceiling may not be what we need from our spend-ups. We should see lower ownership on James and Davis than we do on some of the other studs.
We rarely see much value in the Lakers’ ancillary pieces. Still, Malik Monk and Dwight Howard look pretty decent on DraftKings for savings tonight. Monk has also shown an actual ceiling if he gets hot and gets the minutes. There is no value in the Lakers’ secondary guys at their FanDuel prices.