We’ve got a solid nine-game slate in the Association on deck here on Monday. Since this is a pretty big one to break down, let’s get right into it.
MIA (101) @ CLE (106.5)
As long as Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo remain out, there will be some meat on the bone for Miami. P.J. Tucker, Max Strus, DeWayne Dedmon, KZ Okpala, Kyle Lowry, and Duncan Robinson all offer us value on DraftKings. Tyler Herro has the most upside, but he’s a little expensive and not as good of a points-per-dollar play. One could also consider Gabe Vincent. Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro are the two good Heat options on FanDuel.
On DraftKings, we’re not getting a ton of great plays from the Cavs. Ricky Rubio and Lauri Markkanen offer the most value. At their respective price tags, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and Darius Garland come with upside but don’t grade out as fantastic options today. Mobley would be the best of the bunch. On FanDuel, absolutely no one is offering us value. If you were going to play someone, it would be one of the players I mentioned above, but they aren’t strong FD plays today.
GSW (108.75) @ IND (105.25)
Kevon Looney is a pretty decent value play for Golden State at just $3,600 on DraftKings. After that, Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins are the best options. Draymond and Curry are always in play, but they don’t stand out at their price points. Wiggins is underpriced on FanDuel at just $5,800, and Green is also a more substantial option.
For the Pacers, Chris Duarte and Oshae Brissett (minimum salary) are excellent DraftKings values. Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, Domantas Sabonis, and Myles Turner are all guys who can get it done on any given night. Still, none are great plays tonight at their respective prices against this tough Warriors defense. Malcolm Brogdon would be the best choice among them. Brogdon is a solid play on FanDuel at $7,300.
SAC (108.25) @ TOR (112.75)
This one has a sizeable total and a tight spread, which means we could see a good DFS game here. We’ve also got tons of value on DraftKings with Richaun Holmes out for the Kings. Marvin Bagley III, Davion Mitchell, Tyrese Haliburton, Harrison Barnes, Terence Davis, and Tristan Thompson are great options here. De’Aaron Fox falls out of value territory, but he’s always a GPP upside option. Bagley, Barnes, and Fox offer the most FanDuel value.
We also have some strong Raptors plays. They are short on big men with Precious Achiuwa and Khem Birch out, making Chris Boucher a lovely play at $4,300 on DraftKings. Gary Trent Jr., Pascal Siakam, and Scottie Barnes are also solid options on DK. These same guys are good FanDuel options, although Scottie Barnes to a lesser extent. Fred VanVleet is also a somewhat better play at his FanDuel price.
MIL (111) @ BOS (110)
The Bucks are pretty much the Giannis Antetokounmpo show. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are good players. Still, with Giannis dominating the usage, they are hard to go to at their DraftKings prices. George Hill is at minimum salary on DraftKings and could be an excellent source of savings. No one for Milwaukee is a good play on FanDuel outside of Giannis. This game does have a pretty high total and close spread. This could be an excellent time to play Giannis as it is likely to stay close enough for him to reach a tournament ceiling.
Jaylen Brown is probable to return for Boston, lowering the value of everyone else. Marcus Smart and Jayson Tatum are still decent DraftKings options tonight. FanDuel is about the same; I’d look to Smart and, to a lesser extent Tatum if anyone.
HOU (108.75) @ ATL (119.25)
For the Rockets, Eric Gordon, Garrison Mathews, Armani Brooks, and Jae’Sean Tate all offer excellent DraftKings value. Christian Wood is not priced well but has GPP upside. On FanDuel, Brooks, Tate, and Mathews are the plays, and Wood is priced slightly better. If playing key Atlanta players, you may want to run it back with someone from Houston since you’d like the game to stay close, and there is blowout risk.
We’ve got some excellent DraftKings pricing for this Hawks team, with a total approaching 120. Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Trae Young, Clint Capela, John Collins, and Cam Reddish look superb tonight. FanDuel is the same, although Cam Reddish falls out of contention at his price. This could be an excellent game to play a piece or two from both sides, assuming the Rockets can keep pace.
PHI (108.5) @ MEM (103.5)
The 76ers become a fairly lousy team for DFS when Joel Embiid is healthy. You can always play him, but his DraftKings price is nothing special tonight. His price on FanDuel is better, and I’d prioritize him more there. Tobias Harris is a decent option on FanDuel as well.
Steven Adams is listed as doubtful, and Jaren Jackson Jr. is listed as questionable for the Grizzlies. Brandon Clarke is already ruled out. If one or both of Adams/Jackson Jr. sits, Xavier Tillman will be an excellent DraftKings value. His size will be needed against the likes of Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond. He’s highly likely to pay off his price tag and more if he doesn’t get into foul trouble. If Jackson Jr. is out, Tillman becomes hard to ignore. Dillon Brooks is also an excellent play on DraftKings at $6,200, considering his usage rate with Ja Morant off the court. Tillman and Brooks are nice FanDuel plays, while Jackson Jr. would offer solid value if he does suit up.
CHA (106.75) @ DAL (109.25)
There’s just nothing there on Charlotte with Terry Rozier slated to return tonight. PJ Washington is questionable with an illness, and we could get a little bit of value there if he sits. Otherwise, there are too many mouths to feed, and no one projects very well for the price. Outside of Nick Richards as a possible punt option on DraftKings. I wouldn’t argue with playing Gordon Hayward, Miles Bridges, or Terry Rozier on any slate, but this is not a good spot at their prices on either DFS site.
With Luka Doncic out tonight, Dallas is a different story. Jalen Brunson is the lock-and-load play of the slate and should be over 50% rostered on both sites. Dorian Finney-Smith, Kristaps Porzingis, Dwight Powell, and Tim Hardaway Jr. are all looking excellent tonight as well on DraftKings. On FanDuel, the plays are Brunson and Porzingis.
WAS (105.75) @ DEN (109.75)
Value abounds for the Wizards on DraftKings with Kyle Kuzma out due to health protocols. Montrezl Harrell, Daniel Gafford, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Deni Avdija (likely to start for Kuzma) are nice plays here. On, FanDuel, Dinwiddie, Avdija, and Harrell are the best plays.
The Nuggets are another one of those teams where when the alpha is healthy, they are not the best for DFS outside of said alpha, for the most part. Jokic himself is always in play and has been reliably putting up absolutely monster performances. Bones Hyland could be a decent savings punt on DraftKings. Will Barton is currently questionable, and if he was to sit, we would likely get a start from Davon Reed. Other Nuggets would get a usage bump and be in DFS contention.
PHX (107) @ LAC (103.5)
There’s a lot of excellent DraftKings value on Phoenix tonight. Deandre Ayton, Cameron Payne, Landry Shamet, Jae Crowder, and JaVale McGee qualify. Chris Paul should, in theory, be a good option with Devin Booker still out of the mix, but he just hasn’t been showing much upside even without Booker on the court. Mikal Bridges, Cameron Payne, and Deandre Ayton are the best FanDuel plays.
It is highly worth noting that Ayton is questionable with an illness. JaVale McGee becomes a smash if Ayton does not play, particularly on DraftKings. Since this is the latest game of the night, he’s also likely to go under-owned. I could see the argument for putting him in lineups hoping Ayton sits. He is a punt play for savings at his DraftKings price even as the backup. One could also roster multiple players from this game (there are a lot of good plays) to allow for a swap to McGee while still using an adequate amount of your salary cap.
Paul George is doubtful and most likely will not suit up tonight. This means lots of value for the Clippers. Brandon Boston Jr., Terance Mann, Marcus Morris Sr., Reggie Jackson, Ivica Zubac, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Luke Kennard are good DraftKings values here. The same applies to FanDuel except for Zubac, Hartenstein, and Kennard, who do not grade out well for their respective prices. We should get some ownership on some of this glaring value. Still, there is a tendency to avoid the late game among casual DFS players as they don’t want to wait to sweat out their lineups. We may get some ownership discount here, which we will want to exploit in GPPs. Especially when considering the Deandre Ayton/Javale McGee situation for the Suns, I want to prioritize heavy exposure to this game.