Recap of last weeks bets
To Win – Bryson DeChambeau – LOST
To Make the Cut – Charley Hoffman – DNP
Top Ten Finish – Patrick Reed – LOST
Leader After Round One – Keegan Bradley – LOST
Top Twenty Finish – Patton Kizzire – LOST
Profit/Loss (This week) – Loss of $40 to a $10 Stake
Profit/Loss (Overall) – Loss of $87.50 to a $10 Stake
On to this week’s event
The John Deere Classic is being held this week in Illinois, one of the lowest-scoring locations on the PGA Tour. The John Deere Classic makes its return to the PGA Tour calendar after a year away. The tournament was one of a handful of Covid-affected tournaments that never made it back on the Tour docket in 2020 and was removed entirely from the schedule.
The tournament has been held the week before The Open Championship for the past 17 years, except for 2016, when it was shifted to August and played over the same four days as the men’s Olympic golf event in Rio.
TPC Deere Run, one of the most remote venues on the PGA Tour circuit, has hosted it since 2000. It’s also one of the lowest-scoring courses the golfers will encounter all year. The greatest 72-hole total by a champion in the previous 20 tournaments contested here is 268. The last ten winners had a four-round average of 262.3, which is 21.7 under par.
With the season’s final major, taking place in England next week, it’s no surprise that the lineup for the John Deere Classic isn’t very strong – at least by PGA Tour standards. Only three of the top 40 players are competing, with world No 16 Daniel Berger teeing it up. It’s one of those rare weeks when the PGA Tour takes a back seat to the European Tour.
This opens the door for a slew of other professionals to climb the FedExCup standings. There are already 15 players that have qualified for the British Open in the field. The golfers who finish in the top five this week and have not qualified for next week’s last major will compete for the remaining berth.
On to our picks for this year…
Brian Harman +1500
Brian Harman can do no wrong at present and looks the most robust proposition in this weakened field. Harman has five top-ten finishes this season and is ranked 35th in the FedEx Cup rankings. With many of the players above him absent this week, it is the perfect opportunity for him to make his move.
To Miss The Cut
Harold Varner III +163
Garner hasn’t been playing great recently, having missed two of his last three cuts. He has also only recorded two sub-70 rounds from his previous 13 rounds, which could mean he gets left behind around here. He also missed the cut in 2017.
To Make The CUT
Seamus Power -200
Seamus Power has made the cut in his previous seven tournaments and has finished inside the top 20 in his last four. He seems to thrive playing these subpar golf courses and could have a field day around here. He has played in the John Deere Classic on three occasions, and each time he has made it through to the weekend.
Top 30 Finish
Troy Merritt +130
Troy has four top-ten finishes this season which includes finishing runner-up last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Although he hasn’t finished inside the top 30 in his previous five attempts at the John Deere Classic, he did finish 20th in 2014, and this is probably the weakest field he has faced here.
Top Asian Player
K. J. Choi +3300
Although Choi’s best days are undoubtedly behind him, he finished 25th here last time out in 2017, and the course is set up for his short game. He will be one of the only players this week who has no other agenda this week other than having a good tournament.
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
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