The BeerLife Sports Oracle is not a divine creature. He’s only semi-divine. A demi-semi-god of football handicapping. Like most supernatural creatures, he doesn’t speak in short, easy-to-understand phrases and terms. That would be boring. Mt. Olympus does not tolerate boring.
Betting with The Oracle is a sign you’ve arrived. You’re at the precipice of sports betting greatness. But you need to understand how to bet with The Oracle to achieve superior results.
The Oracle Bets Units
What does it mean when The Oracle says, bet 2U on a bet?
A unit in sports betting most simply means, 1% of your bankroll or the total amount you have available to bet. If your bankroll is $1,000, a unit would be $10. A 2 Unit bet, or 2U bet, would be $20 for you. This allows handicappers to give advice to bettors at all different levels of dollar bets.
Reading into the Unit system is an implied confidence level. You wouldn’t want to bet the same amount on every single bet, because some bets are more probable than others. You want to bet more on the more likely wins. So you’ll see suggestions for, bet 1.5 Units (U) or 2 Units, typically up to 5 Units. It’s considered something of a taboo to ever say bet more than 5U on any bet. This is gambling and risk is inherent.
The Oracle’s Units and Confidence Level
Here’s how The Oracle measures his Unit betting suggestions based on the confidence level of his algorithms, based on the last 10 years of sports handicapping.
60% – 62.4%: 1 unit
62.5% – 64.9%: 1.5 units
65.0% – 67.4%: 2 units
67.5% – 69.9%: 2.5 units
70% – 72.4%: 3 units
72.5% – 74.9%: 3.5 units
75% – 77.4%: 4 units
77.5% – 79.9%: 4.5 units
80%+: 5 units
The Oracle’s algorithms don’t spit out “guarantees”, they spit out confidence levels. The Bills-Jets game has an OVER of 47. The Oracle’s mad machinations suggest the Over, with a 66% confidence level. He will urge you to bet 2U on that Over.
Based on an entire’s weekends picks, you are more likely to win the bets with higher units. This equates to your winning margin. And why you must bet ALL the picks The Oracle texts out.
Can I Pick And Choose Which Oracle Bets to Go With?
You can. But we advise against it.
As mentioned, The Oracle provides a series of picks each weekend based on the confidence of the algorithms. Sometimes that will be five picks. Sometimes that will be fifteen picks or more. It’s not about here are my 10 Picks for the Week No Matter What, it’s about, what meets the threshold of the confidence to bet.
But each pick probability forms a piece of the whole probability. The total betting outcome for the weekend is based upon the reality of some of the picks winning and some of the picks losing. The net of the entire basket of picks has been VERY successful for The Oracle through the years. If you start self-selecting which of his picks to use and which to ditch, you are inherently likely to miss the margins his algorithms are providing. In short, you may pick the losers and miss the winners.
Naturally, you are more than welcome to use The Oracle’s picks as you choose. But again, we highly recommend you bet them all and at the Units he recommends. Be aware that when you only bet, say, 3 of the 12 picks he recommends, and you call us and say that didn’t work out for you, we are going to refer you back to this article.
Expect and Prepare for Last-Minute Pics Via Text!
This is very important. The value of bets is based on the betting lines. Those lines constantly change up until (and often after) the moment of kickoff. Betting lines shift according to public perception and the money bet behind that. What may have initially been a strong confidence bet for The Oracle can change as the line changes up until game time. And vice-versa. For this reason, The Oracle often sends out his picks with but a few minutes to go before games. They are literally hot off the presses.
To bet with The Oracle, you need to have your phone at your side on game day. You need to have your selection of sportsbooks also open and ready. You need to be ready to receive and then enter. Thanks to modern technology, you can do this while in the john. You can’t do this if you’re outside shooting hoops and your phone is inside.
Make your final 15 minutes before game time, you and Oracle time.
P.S. Picks will come in at halftime too!
Lines Will Change Right Up to Game Time
Sportsbook lines will change right up until game time. This can be from relevant new news on player personnel decisions, injuries, or merely shifts in weather or supporters shifting bets in the last hour.
The Oracle algorithm bets are contrarian to public action, meaning they adjust along with the betting lines. While The Oracle will try to post picks 30 minutes prior to any action, it’s worth waiting even closer to game time before placing bets. This will allow you to take advantage of improving odds or lines.
80% of the time the line will move in The Oracle’s favor in the times leading up to game time.
A prime example was the September 2nd college game where the total for Boise St. and Central Florida was originally 67. The Oracle had the under. Prior to kickoff, the line had moved to 68. The Oracle took the under bet at 68 and the total points scored in the game ended up being 67. Because The Oracle waited for the public to push the line higher, he won the bet. Otherwise, he would have pushed.
Keep checking the odds right up until game time to ensure the best placement for yourself with The Oracle’s picks!
How Successful Is The Oracle
The Oracle is a mysterious man. He is perhaps the only successful handicapper who hates to brag about his strong record. That is because he is a man of science and not of marketing. That being said, we will brag for him. Because we’ve done very well by The Oracle and while we can not predict the future or guarantee any results based on past performance, The Oracle does have an impressive history of handicapping:
- The Oracle only produces picks with a minimum 60% confidence, a mark that has put his long-term winning percentage at or better than this mark (62% historically)
- The Oracle has been in the black 8 out of the past 10 football seasons.
- The Oracle has been kicked out of sportsbooks for his rigorous regression analysis and ability to repeatedly beat the market.
- The Oracle doesn’t bet games simply to have action on games, he only bets games where the numbers indicate a high chance for success (completely objective, calculated betting).
- The Oracle is a long term bettor, with his formula proving out more and more as more games are bet and more seasons unfold.
The Vig (The Juice, etc)
Sportsbooks don’t take bets for free. “Free betting” is not how you build giant casinos and keep bankers in the Cayman Islands working 24×7. Books take a vigorish, commonly referred to as the vig or the juice on a game. This is their commission, typically around 5% for very large bettors, circling 10% for mainstream bettors.
The commissions are baked into the payout lines, hence why you see commonly +110 on games, and not merely +100, where you simply would double your money with a win. That 10 point differential is the vig, the rake, or commission for the house. You need to bet $110 to win $100 (total $210 payout), not $220. Ten bucks to the house.
For more detail, here’s a good summary discussion of the vig and how to assess what it is when it’s not the simply +110 or -110 example above.
When assessing the Units standings for The Oracle, up or down, BeerLife Sports does not factor in the vig, or the fees you’re paying to your sportsbook. So our accounting of pick results will not precisely equal your actual results.
Please take this into account before contacting us to ask why your actuals may be somewhat different than what you see on our results page.
Wait, I Have More Questions!
Please feel free to write back to The Oracle via Subtext on the same number from where he sends his picks.
Any and all questions are fine. But expect that if you start with, “I only bet some of your picks, not all of them like you told me… ” or “Hey, I missed your picks right before game time” that he will likely start you off with a kindly smack.