Setting the scene
We first head to Texas for the Houston Open, with only two weeks until the PGA Tour closes the book on 2021 at The RSM Classic. The PGA Tour’s longest-running event, now in its 76th year. After a triumphant return last year, the event will return to the Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course. On a star-studded leaderboard, Mexico’s Carlos Ortiz won by two shots on a challenging 7432 yard Tom Doak design. Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama tied for second place, with Brooks Koepka, Tyrrell Hatton, Sam Burns, and Jason Day all finishing in the top ten at the end of the week. Ortiz won with a score of -13, emphasizing the course’s difficulty.
We don’t have Mayakoba’s strength in terms of the playing field, but we do have an exciting field teeing it up in Texas. Ortiz, last year’s winner, is coming off a fantastic 2nd place result in his home country of Mexico last week. Brooks Koepka, on the other hand, will attempt to use his ties and knowledge with this week’s host location to try and stop a dismal run of form.
Betting Angles
Pointing the way to Augusta
The runners-up were intriguing last year. A week later, Dustin Johnson won the Green Jacket, and Hideki Matsuyama won at Augusta National the following April. Perhaps, after all, this event is a favorable omen for Augusta. Brooks Koepka, who assisted with the course redesign, finished in the top five in Houston last year. After finishing second behind Tiger in 2019, Koepka finished seventh at Augusta a week later.
Five alive
What else did we discover from last year, other than some possible form connections to the Masters? One perspective is that the most outstanding performers on the Par 5s ended towards the top of the leaderboard, even though there were only three of them. Winner Ortiz, joint-runner-up Hideki Matsuyama, and seventh-placed Sam Burns were among the four players who shot -8 over the long holes.
Skills required
Those that hit full shots while being in sync with distance and precision should rise to the top, as they do most weeks. Players on a learning curve in reading the somewhat unfamiliar greens will benefit from hitting it firmly. Two significant elements will impact the final score—the stimpmeter speed of the greens and the Texas winds.
Course Correlation
TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic of New Orleans) and East Lake are two additional current PGA Tour stops utilizing MiniVerde Bermudagrass greens (Tour Championship). They were also included on the original host course here, the G.C. of Houston (formerly Redstone GC) — but they were overseeded in April. Before 2017, TPC Sawgrass, home of the Players Championship, and Quail Hollow, home of the Players Championship from 2014 to 2016, both used MiniVerde Bermudagrass.
Horses for courses
The Memorial Park Golf Course is regarded as one of the top municipal courses in the country, with over 60,000 visitors each year. The $18.5 million restorations, funded by the Astros Golf Foundation, have resulted in a world-class golf course for all Houstonians and the return of the PGA TOUR’s Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open to Memorial Park for the first time since 1963. The course was designed by Tom Doak, a world-renowned golf course architect, and incorporates a new, state-of-the-art stormwater irrigation system that can capture and retain 80 million gallons of stormwater for irrigation, removing the golf course irrigation from the City’s potable water system.
Doak, who has created some of the world’s best golf courses, took on the task of designing a municipal golf course that both pros and the general public could enjoy. Brooks Koepka, a four-time major winner, also served as a PGA TOUR player consultant.
Where’s the money?
Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:
Sam Burns 16-1
Scottie Scheffler 18-1
Sungjae Im 22-1
Cameron Smith 25-1
Matthew Wolff 25-1
Tony Finau 25-1
Tyrrell Hatton 28-1
Talor Gooch 30-1
Joaquin Niemann 30-1
Brooks Koepka 30-1
Patrick Reed 33-1
Carlos Ortiz 33-1
Adam Scott 33-1
Aaron Wise 33-1
Marc Leishman 25-1
Maverick McNealy 40-1
Russell Henley 45-1
Shane Lowry 45-1
Cameron Tringale 45-1
Max Homa 45-1
Mackenzie Hughes 50-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 50-1
Seamus Power 50-1
Lanto Griffin 50-1
Jason Kokrak 50-1
Harold Varner 55-1
Erik Van Rooyen 60-1
Mito Pereira 60-1
Branden Grace 66-1
Sebastian Munoz 70-1
Gary Woodland 80-1
Emiliano Grillo 80-1
Ian Poulter 80-1
Jason Day 80-1
Kevin Streelman 80-1
Joel Dahmen 80-1
Jhonattan Vegas 90-1
Russell Knox 90-1
Adam Long 90-1
Chad Ramey 90-1
Cameron Davis 90-1
Brian Harman 90-1
Charley Hoffman 90-1
Ryan Palmer 100-1
Taylor Pendrith 100-1
Danny Willett 100-1
Chez Reavie 100-1
C.T. Pan 100-1
Taylor Moore 100-1
Matthias Schwab 100-1
Lee Westwood 100-1
Adam Schenk 125-1
Luke List 125-1
Brian Stuard 125-1
Sepp Straka 125-1
Henrik Norlander 125-1
Scott Stallings 125-1
Harry Higgs 125-1
Martin Laird 125-1
Stewart Cink 125-1
Sahith Theegala 125-1
Keith Mitchell 125-1
Greyson Sigg 150-1
James Hahn 150-1
Denny McCarthy 150-1
Pat Perez 150-1
Robert Streb 150-1
Scott Piercy 150-1
Henrik Stenson 150-1
Aaron Rai 150-1
Andrew Landry 150-1
Hudson Swafford 150-1
Tom Hoge 150-1
Brice Garnett 150-1
Dylan Frittelli 150-1
J.J. Spaun 150-1
Wyndham Clark 175-1
Tyler Duncan 175-1
Andrew Putnam 175-1
Stephan Jaeger 175-1
Adam Svensson 175-1
J.T. Poston 200-1
Nick Taylor 200-1
Nate Lashley 200-1
Kyle Stanley 200-1
Graeme McDowell 200-1
Francesco Molinari 200-1
Brandt Snedeker 200-1
Anirban Lahiri 200-1
Peter Uihlein 200-1
Matthew NeSmith 200-1
David Lipsky 200-1
Davis Riley 200-1
Jason Dufner 200-1
Vincent Whaley 200-1
Doc Redman 200-1
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
I would love to hear from my followers so drop me a message on the comments section and I will be sure to respond.
As always, believe in the power of statistics!
You must log in to post a comment.