Wings Clipped at the Phoenix
It was almost a fantastic week for us last week at the WM Phoenix Open. Justin Thomas placed eighth. While he finished only three shots behind, he never really got on terms with the leaders and was always playing catch up. However, it was still a good performance. Our outside pick Eckroat had a fantastic week up until Sunday when he blew up and shot a seven-over round to finish down in 64th. However, he made plenty of birdies and put on a decent performance for three days, especially when you consider his low value.
Our attention turns to The Genesis Invitational this week. We will begin, as always, by taking a look at the history of the tournament as we start to build this week’s BeerLife profile.
The History
The Genesis Invitational is the PGA Tour’s event in the Los Angeles region. The West Coast Swing, which passes through California and Arizona, is highlighted by this event. In 1926, the Genesis Invitational was renamed the Los Angeles Open and became a PGA Tour event. It wasn’t held initially at Riviera Country Club, which took over as host in 1929. The Los Angeles Country Club was the first to have the event.
Like many previous PGA Tour events, it began as a city open championship and relocated across the area. However, the tournament gained stature when players like Lloyd Mangrum, Ben Hogan, and Arnold Palmer won it regularly. Tiger Woods has hosted the tournament in recent years, transforming it into an invitational on par with the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Memorial Tournament. Macdonald Smith and Lloyd Mangrum are tied for the most victories in the event’s history, with four wins each. It has been won three times by Ben Hogan, Arnold Palmer, and Bubba Watson.
The Genesis Invitational is a four-day tournament with a qualifying field that is cut. For the tournament’s final two rounds, the field of 120 players is trimmed to the top 65 players and ties.
Let’s turn our attention to the form of the previous five winners, analyze their rounds and see if we can find some crucial links to begin our BeerLife profile.
Past Results
2021 Max Homa – 272 – Form 7/42/18/21
2020 Adam Scott – 273 – Form 11/33/42/17
2019 J.B. Holmes – 270 – Form CUT/26/CUT/48
2018 Bubba Watson – 272 – Form 35/40/CUT/7
2017 Dustin Johnson – 267 – Form 3/CUT/6/3
The Course
Riviera, formerly known as the Los Angeles Athletic Club, is located in the shadows of the Santa Monica Mountains, just off Sunset Boulevard. With its tree-lined fairways and a few subtle doglegs, Riviera necessitates accurate iron play and excellent ball-striking. So even though there are no water hazards on the course this week, careful course management will be crucial.
The rough can be punishing, and the course is known for favoring right-handers who fade the ball from left to right – or left-handers who can draw. Tom Fazio, the architect, changed several holes and added yardage in 2008. According to the statistics, Riviera may even be the most difficult tee-to-green course on the PGA Tour. This is due to the small number of players locating both ‘fairways off the tee’ and ‘greens in regulation.’
The weather looks pretty decent this week, and there should be no issues that trouble these professionals.
The Field
The year 2022 With the passing of the usual Friday entry deadline, the Genesis Invitational field is determined. This event will be held at the Riviera Country Club near Los Angeles, California, and will feature a PGA Tour field. Riviera will host all of the world’s top-10 players, including world No. 1 Jon Rahm. This is the first ‘Invitational’ tournament of the season, featuring a limited field of only 120 players, aside from the winners-only Sentry Tournament of Champions. Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Viktor Hovland, and others are among the top players in the Genesis Invitational lineup.
Key Stats
We run each player in the field through our BeerLife profile analysis to develop our selections. This is what we are looking for this week:
Life’s a Beach – Two of the last five winners have placed seventh or better at Pebble Beach before winning around here.
AT&T Pebble Beach 2022
- Tom Hoge
- Jordan Spieth
- Beau Hossler
- Troy Merritt
- Patrick Cantlay
Setting Up The Final Round – Looking at the previous five winners’ rounds, it’s clear they have made their move on day three, putting themselves in contention on the final day.
Round 3 Scoring Average
- Collin Morikawa
- Lucas Herbert
- Cameron Smith
- Daniel Berger
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Ian Poulter
- Jon Rahm
- Webb Simpson
- Danny Willett
Mean Greens – The greens are generally huge this week, and three-putting is a distinct possibility for many. Therefore, being able to avoid this will be a significant help here.
3-Putt Avoidance
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Matthew Wolff
- Andrew Landry
- Brian Gay
- Nate Lashley
Up and Down Is the Best Way Round – GIR percentage is much lower than the Tour average here, so being able to get up and down is vital to winning.
SG: Around-The-Green
- Scott Brown
- Jim Knous
- Sungjae Im
- Vaughn Taylor
- Charles Howell III
Draft Picks
After looking at the above data and running the field through our Beerlife profile builder, we have selected the following picks.
Must-Have Players – These are the players you need to have in your lineup regardless of the price.
| Collin Morikawa |
| Odds To Win +1800 |
| DraftKings $10,400 |
| FanDuel |
| Collin Morikawa returns to the PGA Tour this week, and I see him making a significant impact here. The world number two never seems to be far away from the action, which is backed up by his finishes on the PGA Tour this season. He has placed 2/7/5/5. If that isn’t enough to pick him already, I don’t know what is! How about the fact that he is arguably the best approach player in the game? This is confirmed by having the best GIR percentage on Tour this season. That will undoubtedly come in handy here. In addition, he has the best eagle per hole ratio this season and the fifth-best birdie average, which are two attributes you want from a DFS player. Finally, with the best scoring averages for rounds three and four, he certainly knows how to finish well. If days one and two go okay, look for him come Sunday evening to be amongst the top, vie for the crown. |
Steady Eddies – These guys should give a good account of themselves and are good additions to your lineup.
| Tom Hoge |
| Odds To Win +9000 |
| DraftKings $7,500 |
| FanDuel |
| Tom Hoge has proven that he is the real deal over the last few weeks. He has been one of the most active golfers on Tour, and this has come to fruition as he has four top ten placings, including winning at Pebble Beach two weeks ago. All of this has meant that he has the tenth-best scoring average on Tour this season. In addition, he has more birdies on Tour than any other player and has also made 27 consecutive greens in regulation, which is the fourth-longest streak at present. |
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
I would love to hear from my followers so drop me a message on the comments section and I will be sure to respond.
As always, believe in the power of statistics!
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