2021 Fortinet Championship: Odds Preview

2021 Fortinet Championship- Odds Preview

Setting the scene

The Fortinet Championship kicks off the 2021-2022 PGA TOUR season in Napa Valley at the Silverado Resort and Spa. The tournament was previously known as the Safeway Open, but Fortinet has replaced Safeway as the tournament’s sponsor for the next six years. Although the name has changed several times, Silverado’s North Course has been on the PGA TOUR since 1968 and has been sponsored by various companies.

This is the first of 45 PGA Tour events (48 overall if you include the FedEx Cup playoffs), and if last season taught us anything, it’s to be prepared for the unexpected. Who would have guessed that 42 players would win in the 2021-2022 season, with six of them winning at least twice? This includes both off-field and team activities. It only demonstrates how difficult it is to identify winners in these competitions because there is such a large skill pool.

This is one of those weeks you’ve circled on your calendar if you’re a golfer aiming to break into the top ranks. What is the explanation for this? After the FedEx Cup playoff run, the big players (well, most of them) are still taking time off in preparation for the Ryder Cup. That’s fantastic news for the field this year. The list includes players who have achieved previous success–far in the past–and those who are still working their way up the ladder. For example, Stewart Cink won for the first time in 11 years in 2020, Cameron Champ won for the second time on the PGA Tour in 2019, and Brendan Steele won back-to-back in 2017 and 2018.

Betting Angles

The flood of new blood into the PGA Tour is the first issue to solve. Many of the recent Korn Ferry Tour alums are top-notch athletes. Brandon Wu and Nick Hardy had successful amateur careers and performed admirably on the Korn Ferry Tour. COVID was the only reason they didn’t play on the PGA Tour last year. However, it could be better to wait and see with these guys. On the Korn Ferry Tour, the golf courses are elementary. While Silverado Resort isn’t a particularly demanding test, it is significantly more complex than the Korn Ferry Tour.

With that in mind, Jimmy Walker was a decent bet seven years ago (about a 36.0 shot), and Steele was at similar odds four years ago to defend the title, but outsiders have an excellent track record. The last three winners and Sang-Moon Bae in 2014 and Bryce Molder in 2011, all went off at triple-figure prices, so don’t hesitate to take a chance on an outsider or two.

Horses for courses

When it comes to the golf course, there aren’t many tricks or perils. For a Par 72 course, the golf course is relatively short. It can only be stretched out to slightly over 7,200 yards at most. By removing dog legs, a bomber may undoubtedly shorten the golf course. It’s hardly overpowering, though, for a short knocker. In terms of the skill sets that can compete, this is a pretty open competition.

Even though the fairways are tight, there isn’t a significant penalty for missing them. On any of the Par 4s and Par 5s, there are no water hazards. Off the tee, the golf course isn’t too bunkered, a tribute to Johnny Miller’s moderation in his layout. Almost everyone can easily carry a fairway bunker off the tee. For the PGA Tour, they aren’t actually in play. This, combined with the 2.5-inch Kentucky bluegrass rough, ensures that no one is penalized for missing the fairway. You can blast it pretty much anywhere as long as a tree or an overhanging limb doesn’t obstruct you.

The tournament also has a high rate of greens in regulation. Despite more than average efforts into greens from the rough, green in regulation rates at the tournament is generally around 70%. The North Course is a resort course. Guests will find the greens to be relatively soft and inviting. In conditions like this, PGA Tour golfers lick their chops. The Greenbrier, Country Club of Jackson, Waialae Country Club, TPC Scottsdale, and PGA West are examples of golf courses with below-average fairways and above-average green in regulation rates. These might be competitions to compare how the field performs from tee to green.

The bent and poa greens at Silverado Resort are a combination. On the PGA Tour, there are a few tournaments with mixed bent/poa greens. They aren’t all the same, though. Some have a higher bent content, while others have a high poa content. Detroit Golf Club, TPC River Highlands, and Tahoe Mt. Club are among the other PGA Tour golf courses with mixed bent/poa greens.

Where’s the money?

Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:

Jon Rahm 9-2
Webb Simpson 14-1
Hideki Matsuyama 20-1
Kevin Na 22-1
Will Zalatoris 28-1
Cameron Tringale 33-1
Cameron Champ 40-1
Harold Varner 40-1
Charley Hoffman 40-1
Emiliano Grillo 40-1
Marc Leishman 40-1
Si-Woo Kim 40-1
Sebastian Munoz 40-1
Max Homa 50-1
Maverick McNealy 50-1
Phil Mickelson 60-1
Mito Pereira 60-1
Brendon Todd 60-1
Brandt Snedeker 60-1
Chez Reavie 60-1
Doug Ghim 60-1
Roger Sloan 66-1
Talor Gooch 66-1
Aaron Rai 66-1
Chad Ramey 66-1
Stephan Jaeger 66-1
Charles Howell 70-1
Adam Hadwin 70-1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 70-1
Brian Stuard 80-1
Pat Perez 80-1
Ryan Moore 80-1
Sahith Theegala 80-1
Brendan Steele 80-1
Taylor Moore 80-1
Lucas Herbert 80-1
Harry Higgs 80-1
Peter Uihlein 80-1
C.T. Pan 80-1
Dylan Frittelli 90-1
Adam Svensson 100-1
Greyson Sigg 100-1
Taylor Pendrith 100-1
Danny Willett 100-1
Tom Hoge 100-1
Patton Kizzire 100-1
Lanto Griffin 100-1
Adam Schenk 100-1
Sepp Straka 100-1
Joseph Bramlett 100-1
Troy Merritt 100-1
Doc Redman 100-1
Nick Taylor 100-1
Luke List 100-1
Hudson Swafford 125-1
John Huh 125-1
Andrew Putnam 125-1
Scott Piercy 125-1
Patrick Rodgers 125-1
J.T. Poston 125-1
Ryan Armour 125-1
Matt Kuchar 125-1
Alex Smalley 125-1
Russell Knox 125-1
David Lipsky 125-1
Hayden Buckley 125-1
Michael Thompson 125-1
Joshua Creel 125-1
Scott Stallings 150-1
Dylan Wu 150-1
Kurt Kitayama 150-1
Chun-An Yu 150-1
Brice Garnett 150-1
Kyle Stanley 150-1
Kevin Tway 150-1
Andrew Novak 150-1
Denny McCarthy 150-1
Bronson Burgoon 150-1
Cameron Young 150-1
Vincent Whaley 150-1
Jason Dufner 150-1
Brandon Wu 150-1
Trey Mullinax 150-1
Hank Lebioda 150-1
Bo Hoag 150-1
Mark Hubbard 150-1
Chesson Hadley 150-1
Cameron Percy 150-1
Lee Hodges 200-1
Jim Herman 200-1
James Hahn 200-1
Justin Lower 200-1
Callum Tarren 200-1
Dawie Van Der Walt 200-1
Danny Lee 200-1
Ben Kohles 200-1
Adam Long 200-1
J.B. Holmes 200-1
Sam Ryder 200-1
Kramer Hickok 200-1
Kevin Chappell 200-1
Nick Watney 250-1
Bo Van Pelt 250-1
David Skinns 250-1
Brandon Hagy 250-1
J.J. Spaun 250-1
Sung-Hoon Kang 250-1
Seth Reeves 250-1
Andrew Landry 250-1
Tyler Duncan 250-1
Peter Malnati 250-1
Scott Gutschewski 250-1
Austin Cook 250-1
Jamie Lovemark 250-1
Davis Riley 250-1
Max McGreevy 250-1
Michael Gligic 250-1
Beau Hossler 250-1
Nick Hardy 250-1
Jared Wolfe 300-1
Aaron Baddeley 300-1
Sean O’Hair 300-1
Matthew NeSmith 300-1
Vaughn Taylor 300-1
John Augenstein 300-1
Ben Martin 300-1
Wyndham Clark 300-1
Austin Smotherman 300-1
Bill Haas 350-1
Trevor Werbylo 350-1
Turk Pettit 350-1
Tyler McCumber 350-1
Chase Seiffert 400-1
Seung-yul Noh 400-1
Paul Barjon 400-1
Curtis Thompson 400-1
Brett Drewitt 400-1
David Hearn 400-1
Nate Lashley 400-1
Kelly Kraft 400-1
D.J. Trahan 500-1
William McGirt 500-1
Scott Brown 500-1
Chris Stroud 500-1
Jim Knous 500-1
Jonas Blixt 500-1
Quade Cummins 500-1
Ted Potter 500-1
Jonathan Byrd 750-1
Martin Trainer 1000-1
Kevin Stadler 1000-1
Michael Duncan 1500-1

Freelance Sports Writer | + posts

Hey Guys

My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.

I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.

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